Offseason Capsule: NL East

Jason Michael Barker

In the fifth installment of a six-part series, we examine the moves made this offseason in the National League East. The division has been dominated by the Atlanta Braves in the 1990s, with Ted Turner's club capturing seven division titles in nine years, mostly due to superior starting pitching. Will they be challenged in 1999?

Montreal and Florida, the past and present in salary dumping expertise, have deep farm systems but a long-term outlook on winning. Philadelphia might be the next to dump salary, in the form of ace Curt Schilling. That leaves the New York Mets, who made a run at the Wild Card last season, and were very active improving their squad this off-season. Will they challenge the Braves in 1999?

Atlanta Braves (1998: 106-56)
Free agents added: Brian Jordan, OF Otis Nixon
Free agents lost: 1B Greg Colbrunn (ARI)
Free agents re-signed: SS/Outmaker Ozzie Guillen, 2B Keith Lockhart
Added via trade: 2B Bret Boone, P Mike Remlinger

1999 Outlook: The Braves have taken quite a bit of heat for the moves they've made this offseason, and rightfully so. With the emergence of hot prospect Bruce Chen, starter Denny Neagle was deemed expendable late in the season, and was dealt to Cincinnati for 2B Bret Boone. Neagle is by no means an ace, but you'd think that a 30-year old solid starter with a fairly cheap contract would be enough to net Boone, who's overrated both in the field and at the plate.

Yet the Braves threw in OF Michael Tucker, coming off a disappointing season, AND pitching prospect Rob Bell. Don't despair, Braves fans, they also managed to pry Mike Remlinger away from the Reds.

Then there are the signings. If Brian Jordan stays healthy and remains at or near 1998 levels, great. But if he gets injured or returns to his free-swinging, no-walking self, they would have been better off with the younger and cheaper Tucker. Meanwhile, Otis Nixon was inked to possibly replace Ryan Klesko. Yes, Klesko has problems with left-handed pitching, but at least he has some power. He hit .359/.473 (OBP/SLG) last season, compared to .361/.344 for the aging Nixon. And don't get me started about a two-year deal for Ozzie Guillen (career .288/.339).

But don't forget Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. Or Chipper Jones, Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones. Bottom line the Braves won't be as good as they were last year, but they still have enough pitching to win at least 90 games.

New York Mets (1998: 88-74)
Free agents added: OF Rickey Henderson, 3B Robin Ventura
Free agents lost: UT Lenny Harris (COL), OF Tony Phillips (OAK), P Armando Reynoso (ARI)
Free agents re-signed: P Dennis Cook, P Al Leiter, C Mike Piazza, P Masato Yoshii
Added via trade: OF Roger Cedeno, P Armando Benitez, 3B/OF Bobby Bonilla

1999 Outlook: In the humble opinion of this writer, no team has done more to improve this offseason than the New York Metropolitans. Let's take a look, deal by deal.

The most important thing the Mets did after the season was re-signing Mike Piazza, the best catcher ever to play the game (I'll keep saying it till I'm blue in the face). Not only did they retain the services of a tremendous player, but they showed the rest of the baseball world they were serious about winning. Next came Al Leiter (17-6, 2.47 ERA in 1998) and Dennis Cook (2.38 in 70 relief appearances). Had they quit there, it would have been a good offseason. But they didn't.

Stuck with catcher Todd Hundley and no place to put him, the Mets packaged him with a minor- leaguer and received OF Roger Cedeno and flame-thrower Armando Benitez from the Dodgers and Orioles, respectively, in a three-way deal. Benitez won't have to deal with the pressure of closing right away, and can grow into the role now filled by veteran John Franco. Cedeno, a one- time Dodger prospect, is a good on-base guy who should perform if he gets regular playing time, if not this season, then next.

Finally, the Mets added two key free agents in LF Rickey Henderson and 3B Robin Ventura. Henderson gives them the leadoff man they lacked last season, while Ventura allows Edgardo Alfonzo to move to second base, where his offense relative to his position goes from so-so to above average. The move also gives the Mets one of the best defensive infields in baseball.

Impressed yet? You should be. Before anyone tries to stop me, I'm going to go out on that proverbial limb and predict a playoff birth for the Mets. But will it be wild card or divisional? See the predictions at the end of the article.

Philadelphia Phillies (1998: 75-85)
Free agents added: F Rob Ducey, P Jim Poole, C Tom Prince
Free agents lost: 2B Mark Lewis (CIN), P Mark Portugal (BOS)
Free agents re-signed: None
Added via trade: OF Ron Gant, P Jeff Brantley, P Cliff Politte, P Chad Ogea, P Paul Spoljaric

1999 Outlook: Another year, another mediocre finish. The Phils were active in the trade department this offseason, dumping dead weight for some decent young arms in Politte, Ogea, and Spoljaric. They also acquired closer Jeff Brantley to replace departed Rickey Bottalico, and added some power in the outfield with Ron Gant. Overall I'd say the Phillies improved this winter, but then again they weren't a very good team to begin with.

Young star Scott Rolen leads a relatively weak offensive attack, which saw a .395 team slugging average and only three players cracking 15 home runs or more last season (Rolen, Bobby Abreu and Rico Brogna). On the pitching side of things, the Phillies boast one of the game's best in Curt Schilling, but little else. Trade rumors seemed to surround Schilling all season, and the Phils might be better off trading him now and concentrating on winning two or three years down the road.

Montreal Expos (1998: 65-97)
Free agents added: one
Free agents lost: UT F.P. Santangelo (SF)
Free agents re-signed: None
Added via trade: None

1999 Outlook: About the same as usual. Les Expos have a few young stars in outfielders Vladimir Guererro and Rondell White, and closer Ugueth Urbina. C/3B Michael Barrett is a top-notch hitter, and should get a shot at a starting job next season. The rotation boasts an emerging star in Dustin Hermanson in addition to two promising youngsters, Carl Pavano and Javier Vasquez. Then there's manager Felipe Alou, who does a good job patching together a solid bullpen from cast-aside veterans (Mike Maddux) and unknown youngsters (Steve Kline).

Still, the Expos simply don't spend enough money to compete with the Mets or Braves in this division. They might slide up to third next season if their young talent comes through, but there are too many holes for Montreal to expect more than 75 wins in 1999.

Florida Marlins (1998: 54-108)
Free agents added: one
Free agents lost: None
Free agents kept: None
Added via trade: P Braden Looper, C Jorge Fabregas

1999 Outlook: One positive of having such a young team is that none of your players are free agents at the end of the year. Of the Marlins' current roster, only two players (Alex Fernandez and Kirt Ojala) were born in the 1960s, and they have eleven players who were born in 1975 or later. Despite resembling a triple-A team, there is some talent here, both in the field and on the mound.

The problem for the Marlins will be keeping the current group of guys around long enough and letting them develop to the point that they'll be able to contend, or somewhere around 2002, when the core of players hits peak age. There's going to be quite a bit of losing in the meantime, and former manager Jim Leyland worked some of his young pitchers very hard last season.

Not listed above is a very deep farm system, built both through trades and strong scouting in Latin America. The Marlins have at least decent prospects available at nearly every position, although for the moment their tools-oriented approach doesn't stress strike zone judgement as much as it needs to. If new owner John Henry can stick it out for a few years and gradually add money to the payroll by spending wisely on established pitchers, the Marlins could be a force around the middle of the next decade. As for 1999? I'm sure you can answer that one yourself.

Overview
The top two teams in the division, Atlanta and New York, went in opposite directions this offseason. Will that be enough to close the 18-game gap that separated them last season? In a word, yes. My first bold prediction of the year is the Mets over the Braves in the East, with Atlanta hanging around for a wild card birth. The rest of the division will look pretty much as it did last year, with mediocrity in Philadelphia and young rebuilding in Montreal and Florida. Early prediction: New York, Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, Florida.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker Just bought a QuickCam, and he wants to know which you'd rather see 24 hours a day on the web: the top of his head, or the little divot at the base of his neck. Let him know at jmb@strikethree.com.