Offseason Capsule: AL East

Jason Michael Barker

Yankees Yankees Yankees. If you're like most baseball fans, you're probably sick of that team from the Bronx. Get used to it -- they're going to win the division again next year, too. But don't worry, they won't be nearly as good as they were in 1998. Neither will two other teams in the division, but you'll have to read on to find out which ones. Not that you can't figure it out.

New York Yankees (1998: 114-48)
Free agents added: None
Free agents lost: None
Free agents kept: 3B Scott Brosius, P David Cone, OF Bernie Williams
Added via trade: P Dan Naulty

1999 Outlook: Honestly, how many changes would you make after a 114-win regular season and a World Series title? The entire infield is back, as is two-thirds of the outfield. Left field is still a question mark, with 1998 regulars Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines yet unsigned, but prospect Ricky Ledee and late-season hero Shane Spencer are ready to step in.

Last year's rotation of David Cone, David Wells, Andy Pettitte, Hideki Irabu and Orlando Hernandez combined for 79 wins (against just 35 losses), and the bad news for the rest of the league is that they're all back, as is closer Mariano Rivera (36 saves in 1998).

The bad things about keeping your entire team intact are age and the decline that tends to go with it. It's reasonable to expect decline from nearly the entire lineup next season, with SS Derek Jeter and C Jorge Posada the two exceptions. Likewise, Cone and Wells are getting up there in age, while it's only a matter of time before the league adjusts to Hernandez as it did to Irabu. On second thought, never mind. This is still a 100-win ballclub.

Boston Red Sox (1998: 92-70)
Free agents added: P Mark Guthrie, 2B Jose Offerman, P Mark Portugal
Free agents lost: P Steve Avery (CIN), OF Darren Bragg (CIN), 2B Mike Benjamin (PIT), P Butch Henry (SEA), P Pete Schourek (PIT), P Greg Swindell (ARI), 1B Mo Vaughn (ANA)
Free agents kept: OF Darren Lewis
Added via trade: P Bob Wolcott (don't laugh)

1999 Outlook: Nearly everywhere you look, you see someone ripping Red Sox management for two things: letting Mo Vaughn leave town, and signing Jose Offerman to a $26M contract. I'm here to defend both of those moves. If the only way the Sox could have kept Vaughn was by giving him seven years at over $13M per, then letting him walk was the right choice. Don't get me wrong here, Vaughn is a good, if not great, player. But he's not an elite player, and in my opinion he's a back injury waiting to happen. Offerman, on the other hand, knows how to get on base and is a huge upgrade over what they had at 2B last season.

That said, they too look to decline in 1999. Hey, that rhymes. Pedro Martinez will once again anchor the rotation, but after that it's Bret Saberhagen (old), Tim Wakefield (inconsistent) and a cast of thousands. Closer Tom Gordon saved 46 of 47 chances last season, meaning he has nowhere to go but down. Finally, there still isn't much pop in the outfield, which currently consists of Darren Lewis and Troy O'Leary. Don't look for the Sox to regain last season's wild card birth, unless they happen to steal Frank Thomas away from their pale counterparts.

Toronto Blue Jays (1998: 88-74)
Free agents added: DH Geronimo Berroa (minor-league deal)
Free agents lost: C Benito Santiago (CHC), DH Jose Canseco (TAM)
Free agents kept: INF Craig Grebeck, P Dave Steib (minor-league deal)
Added via trade: P Joey Hamilton, P Eric Ludwick (Rule 5)

1999 Outlook: It could be a very interesting year in Toronto, with Roger Clemens ("Trade me!"), manager Tim "the fibber" Johnson, and injured-while-snowmobiling pitcher Paul Quantrill all vying for the headlines this offseason. The Blue Jays are certainly a wild card contender if everything falls into place -- a full season of Clemens, solid performances by the rest of the rotation (including newcomer Joey Hamilton), and the continued improvement of 1B Carlos Delgado, OF Jose Cruz Jr. and OF Shannon Stewart.

They also need to find a starting second baseman (rumor has it an offer has been made to Joey Cora), and possibly a starting third baseman, depending on the severity of Tom Evans' winter ball injury. There certainly are quite a few question marks for the Jays, but there is also reason for optimism -- remember that this team made a late run at the Red Sox last season, finishing with a better record that all but the Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians in the AL.

Baltimore Orioles (1998: 79-83)
Free agents added: OF Rich Amaral, OF Albert Belle, P Ricky Bones, 1B Will Clark, 2B Delino DeShields, P Xavier Hernandez, P Mike Timlin
Free agents lost: 2B Roberto Alomar (CLE), OF Eric Davis (STL), 1B Rafael Palmeiro (TEX)
Free agents kept: OF B.J. Surhoff
Added via trade: C Charles Johnson

1999 Outlook: The Orioles have undergone a major revamping after a 1998 season which didn't live up to the expectations of baseball's highest payroll. The right side of the infield is entirely new, with Will Clark and Delino DeShields replacing Rafael Palmeiro and Roberto Alomar, respectively, while defensive whiz Charles Johnson takes over behind the plate.

Unfortunately for their fans, the left side of the infield remains unchanged. The O's biggest addition, however, is clearly Albert Belle, the often volatile slugger who also happens to be one of the game's most dangerous hitters. His offense will offset the loss of production in the Clark-Palmeiro swap.

The Orioles still need another starter, however (who doesn't?), and despite the Belle upgrade, they still suffer at third base, shortstop, center field, and catcher in terms of offense. It's likely going to be another disappointing season in Baltimore.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1998: 66-93)
Free agents added: OF/DH Jose Canseco
Free agents lost: None
Free agents kept: C John Flaherty
Added via trade: None.

1999 Outlook: When you win 114 games, as the Yankees did, it's a good thing not to make too many changes. But when you barely avoid 100 losses, you should be changing whatever you can. Yet for some reason the Devil Rays have kept things pretty much the same as they were in 1998. The only addition is Jose Canseco, an outfielder in name only, who hits for power and that's about it. He's also injury-prone, but that's another story. Further, they're considering playing 1B Paul Sorrento in the outfield, where he'd make Canseco look like Andruw Jones.

Surprisingly, Tampa Bay had wonderful pitching last season. Only two teams in the American League (New York, Boston) allowed fewer runs, but those teams had something the Rays didn't: an offense. Despite playing in a good hitter's park, Tampa Bay finished dead last in the league in runs scored, which was the main reason why they only won 63 games. Guess what? They won't have an offense next season, either. Basically they have a batting order of players who don't get on base well, which is a recipe for disaster. Not to mention playing in the toughest division in baseball.

Overview
We'll end this piece as it started, with those damned Yankees, who will win the division once again in 1999, but not by the margin they did last season. Toronto and Boston will duke it out for second place and the AL wild card, while Baltimore will fall short once again. In Tampa Bay, there's just one reason to look forward to the season -- Wade Boggs is just 78 hits away from 3000. Early prediction: New York, Toronto, Boston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker correctly predicted that McGwire's 70th would go for $3M, Jordan would retire, and a CEO of a high-tech firm would believe that aliens brought us computer technology. Ask him how he knew Jordan would retire at jmb@strikethree.com.