1998 Analysis Archive

The Ghost of Hitting Past
In the holiday spirit, Dave Paisley sez the greatest gift one aging veteran can give is to stay retired.

Park Effects Revisited Again
Here at Strikethree.com, we firmly believe that park effects are like bran flakes: you can never get enough. They're good for you. Honest. Dave Paisley has not brainwashed us into telling you this. Trust us.

A Tale of the Wild, Wild West
Sure, being based in Seattle we often dwell a bit on the Mariners. And sure, Dave Paisley loves to have an excuse for a new chart or two. Well, today is no different, but Dave has good reasons. Honest. Just read it. Go on, read.

Park Effects, Schmark Effects
After spending all that time telling you how valuable park effects can be, Dave Paisley would now like to tell you that they can also be as worthless as DIVX. Well, maybe not exactly that worthless -- you can still calculate park effects even if we were to go bankrupt.

The Scrub Report
The free agent crowd is dwindling now (of course, by "dwindling," we mean that almost all the good ones are gone), and it's almost time for the scavengers in San Francisco, Detroit and Seattle to begin picking over the remains. Dave Paisley rates the cadavers, and finds a few live ones.

Breaking Down the Stats
It's the center of the vortex, where math and athletics collide. It's that place where some enjoy the game of baseball as much laid out on a spreadsheet as in a ballpark. This, my friends, is the domain of Dave Paisley. Welcome to his world.

Braves Forget the Alomar
As the flurry of trades and superstar signings goes on, it may seem that at least one team is simply making random moves for moves' sake. Jason Michael Barker thinks one such team is owned by The Man Who Would Be President.

Total Average: My New Favorite Toy
OPS, OPS, OPS. It seems like every time you're talking about how Tony Gwynn's the greatest pure hitter or Vince Coleman's a true leadoff man, some stathead laughs at you and quotes OPS. Well, Jason Michael Barker's gonna stop doing that, but only because he's got a new way to tell you that Ozzie Guillen blows.

A Bull Market in Mediocrity
We're only partway into the baseball "silly season," when general managers either set up their team for success or prove they're nuttier than a Payday bar. Dave Paisley asks the musical question, when is a player who's worth $26M not worth $26M?

The Last Park Factor Show
In his continuing series of analyses, Dave Paisley has been discussing park factors. Today he turns his attention to the Senior Circuit, with its mountain homer haven and hit-sucking ravine. You may even understand some of it -- we'll give you a 100% refund of your subscription price if you don't.

AL Park Effects, Part II, Revisited
Last time, Dave Paisley introduced you to the world of park effects. Well, he didn't stop there. Today he begins dividing stuff by other stuff, and there's numbers all over the place. If it weren't for your damn need to know which teams squeeze the most advantage from their home parks, he wouldn't need all that therapy.

See pitch. Hit pitch in air.
"He's patient at the plate" and "if you hit ground balls, good things happen." Two baseball cliches you've likely heard before. But are they BS, or not? Our BS team (consisting solely of Jason Michael Barker) presents a report of extraordinary magnitude.

One More Look Back
Lots of baseball writers make predictions. Most hope you won't remember them at the end of the season. Dave Paisley, on the other hand, not only invites you to mock him, but gets it started himself. With tables.

Piazza Delivery
In return for playing baseball to the best of his ability, Mike Piazza will recieve the equivalent of about twenty typical Powerball jackpots. While some are up in arms over the 91 meeelion dollars Bachelor Tycoon will be getting, Dave Paisley points out that it's likely J.D. Drew will chuckle quietly at the old codger's meager compensation.

1998 All-Rookie Team
As you look at the big-ticket superstar free agents, sitting in the showroom like so many Porsches, think about the new, zippy models that may not be road-proven yet, but pack lots of options. Jason Michael Barker runs down (so to speak, to coin the phrase, in a manner of -- ow!) the top of this season's crop.

NL Call-up Report
In the second part of his series on the players of MLB's future, Jason Michael Barker runs down the NL's top prospects. Included: J.D. Drew, who it is pointed out not only rhymes with "boo," but with "oooooh."

Least Valuable Player: AL
Dave Paisley is back for Round 2 of his hecklefest, wherein he adds a bonus game of "Spot the Future Hall of Famer." Hint: you will probably win this one very, very quickly.

Least Valuable Player: NL
For some reason, we have picked on poor Rey Ordonez a lot this season. We publicly admit that we shouldn't -- we should actually be picking on the Mets for playing him. But hey, since we've already established a trend, how much more harm could Dave Paisley do?

AL Call-up Report
September. A time for playoff-bound excitement in a few cities, wait-til-next-year gloom in others. Even if you live in Kansas City or Baltimore, however, Jason Michael Barker says you've still got some good baseball to watch, played by tomorrow's superstars.

Here's a dollar, kid - buy yourself a team.
What kind of pitcher can you buy on the free agent market? Great, good, and awful beyond reason. Derek Zumsteg continues to assemble the best team smart money could buy this winter.

The Team to Beat: Houston
In our ongoing quest to get more riders on the Astros bandwagon, we now have Jason Michael Barkerhipping you to the fact that the South Texans have Big Mo, and we don't mean the emotionally-fragile slugger.

AL MVP: Big Muddle
On Thursday, Dave Paisley read the tea leaves (which looked suspiciously like stats) to predict the National League's man o' the year. Now he's casting the runes for the junior circuit<, but those shouts of "baby needs a new pair of cleats!" can't be good.

Blue Jays Bustin' Out, Eh?
By July, the once-proud Toronto franchise was looking like nothing but a bunch of hosers, but boy, has that changed. We're not sure if it's the abundance of donuts, or a last-minute grasp of the metric system, but the team's resurgence is at least good reason for the editor to pull out his Canuck cliches.

Free Agent Bargains: an Oxymoron?
It's the time of year where most teams' thoughts are of next season, and most of those teams' fans are eyeing the free agent list like it was the big-screen TV section at Sears. Derek Zumsteg tries to put together the best team smart dollars can buy.

In Short, They're Spectacular
They're good. They're young. They're handso-...well, most of them are handsome. They're the Boys of the American League: Rodriguez, Jeter and Garciaparra, and Jason Michael Barker explains why they're turning a double play in your heart.

Don't Cy for Me
We kick off the postseason hardware picks with Dave Paisley's chart-assisted stab at guessing who'll take the Cy Young in the AL. Or rather, second-guessing that batch of baseball writers who take time from their Twit of the Year contest to vote.

Never Mind the Wild Card - Here's the Beef
While you've been napping, no less than three NL teams have been quietly getting close to that magical 100-win mark. They may be the reason the dog days have been so boring, but they'll also be why the playoffs will be another story. Dave Paisley says "bullpenitis" and gets us banned by SurfWatch.

Career CPR: A Case Study
Every once in a while, a player manages to pick his oevure up by the bootstraps and become a better player than even he'd imagined: Dennis Eckersley; Sammy Sosa...well, Sosa was supposed to be this good in the first place. Dave Paisley looks at Jamie Moyer, who has managed to surprise everyone.

Pitching (and No Drugs)
Over-the-counter remedies? Get your controversy antidotes here! Dave Paisley looks at who's good and who's just plain lucky, pitching-wise, with not even one mention of Mark McGwire (except that one there).

Offensive? You bet!
Dave Paisley assesses the teams who have made the most of their hitting this year, and suggests that a few clubs could use a sound talking-to.

Prospect or Suspect?
Willie Mays. Ted Williams. Lou Gehrig. Rocky Colavito. Andruw Jones. What's wrong with this picture? And why doesn't anyone cut Jones as much slack as he seems to cut himself? Dave Paisley answers the second one first.

NL Rookie Roundup
Back like a bad Mexican dinner, Jason Michael Barker makes scholarly each month vis a vis the progress of the NL's freshman talent. In particular, things are good in the rare air and the Friendly Confines, but watch those innings!

Alex for the Ages
That Alex Rodriguez - he's real good. But how good? You know, in a historical context? You know that if there's such a question to be asked, Dave Paisley will be all over it, usually with graphical assistance.

AL Rookie Roundup
It's that time again, and like clockwork Jason Michael Barker has got your first-year fraternity right here, except without the paddles, bowl of "eyeballs," peanut butter and sheep. The gang of rooks has expanded this month as well, due to an elevated Duque and lowered standards.

Dog Days Bite Man
It's only August, but they may as well hold the playoffs today, right? Dave Paisley says don't you fret, li'l buddy...well, okay, g'head and fret.

Those Yankee Hurlers...
On Thursday he told you their hitting was great (well, not great great, just really good). Now Dave Paisley's back with a verdict on the Yankee hurlers, and whether this is the best team of all time. It's no Bronx bummer, that's for sure.

Bustin' Out Da Bronx
The Yankees are playing really, really well. So well, in fact, that math is even on their side. And where there's math, there's Dave Paisley, who promises that the Boys O' Bronx won't fall victim to the Strikethree.com curse like Juan Gonzalez did.

The Other Home Run Race
Even as the media hype around the Race to 62 exceeds the event itself, there's another, far quieter mark being challenged this year, and one with career implications just as big as the Maris chase. And this guy even has Griffey as "protection"! Dave Paisley is just wild about A-Rod.

Home Run Redux Ad Nauseam
Even as the single-season homer record has months to fall, folks are already making light of the potential achievement. Our formula for statistical fun? Dave Paisley + time = charts aplenty! And he doesn't even mention Mark McGwire or Ken Griffey, Jr....much.

RBI Vulture II: Ultimate Roadkill
Juan Gonzalez has picked up several RBI this season. You may be wondering how he manages to get the occasional RBI, as well as how he might almost compare favorably to Hack Wilson, who once had a few RBI himself. Dave Paisley, who has been known to make a mean chart, concludes that Gonzalez is on an excellent pace to perhaps achieve another RBI or two.

They're Not That Good:
The All-Overrated Team
Ever read the newsgroup rec.sport.baseball and wonder why the very mention of the name "Joe Carter" in a thread touches off the Usenet equivalent of schoolyard teasing? Jason Michael Barker assures that he'll be persona non grata in many MLB clubhouses by telling you just why we make fun of Rey Ordonez.

AL Prediction Update
Not is he fond of tables and graphs, but Dave Paisley is perhaps the only prognosticator who updates you, the viewer, on how his picks have performed. This time, it's the Junior Circuit, where the Yankees have harnessed Paul O'Neill's cooler smashing as an energy source, and where the Mariner bullpen has browned out.

AL Rookie Roundup
It's those darn rookies again, and they're acting as young and precocious as ever. Jason Michael Barker brings you the rookie rankings, and explains why he's melting down his Todd Zeile action figure in a feeble attempt to make it a Ben Grieve.

Chasing Maris
Dave Paisley made me a $5 bet that you will read any article that we tease using the names of Ken Griffey, Jr., Mark McGwire, and Roger Maris. I, on the other hand, bet that you were much too smart to be sucked in by such a ruse, even if we were to add Sammy Sosa. Also Alex Rodriguez.

Are Pitchers Worth Big Money?
Pitchers. Why do they get that kind of money, anyway? How can Greg Maddux be as valuable as Mark McGwire, when Greg is sitting 4/5 of the time? Dave Paisleypercolates the requisite statistics until they're silky smooth, yet bracing.

Bragging rights: Rating the divisions
Now that we're exactly halfway through the season, it's time to pan out with a giant crane-cam to get the biggest picture of all: Whose neighborhood's the toughest, and who're a bunch of soda jerkers. Jason Michael Barker explains that when you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way.

Second Basemen: What Th'?
In trying to find some correlation between salary and quality of play, Derek Zumsteg was left scratching his head. He knows, however, that Mike Lansing is no Damion Easley, and that this year for some weird reason, neither is Chuck Knoblauch.

Wild About the Card: AL
He told you who and why in the NL race, now join, if you will, join Dave Paisley, who will tell you that a Juan Gonzalez does not a playoff spot make.

Props for the Padres
The Yankees? How five minutes ago. The Braves? Trés passé. Simply everybody knows that the trendy hot team in baseball is the San Diego Padres. But what gives the Pads their panache? Jason Michael Barker hips you to the four-one-one, baby.

Wild About the Card: NL
We're midway through the year, which means not only that it's beer and grilled frank weather, but that young men's fancy is turning to the Wild Card. Well, not really, because every contender still thinks they can take the division. Dave Paisley opines that some of them had better think twice.

What Can You Get for Sixty-three Cents?
In a continuing series on the value of the baseball dollar (known as the 'million'), Derek Zumsteg examines the Six Million Dollar Overpaid Stiffs and Mark McGwire, Underpaid Crazy Man.

The Vegas World Series
What if the World Series were played today? Dave Paisley matched up the top teams in both leagues right now, and dares you to wager.

Fog Versus Sunshine
It may be only June to you, but the pennant races are already starting to heat up. Dave Paisley looks first at the rivalry between Barry Bonds' Giants and Ken Caminiti's Padres, and because it's Dave, you know there'll be stats involved.

The Payroll-to-Win Ratio
Think your team's not keeping up with the Joneses (or the Steinbrenners and Angeloses, as the case may be) payroll-wise? Think you have to have a Mike Piazza or two just to feel like you're serious? Derek Zumsteg thinks you may be right, but the money might be best spent on a good GM.

NL June Rookie Round-Up
Last week Jason Michael Barker brought you the dwindling gang of rookies in the AL. The Senior Circuit, however, still has a reasonable crop. Problem: looks like a late harvest. Konerko is beginning to bear fruit, however.

A Tale of Two Cities
Without a doubt you have been fascinated by the trainwreck that is the 1998 Seattle Mariners. Fans in Boston are thinking Wild Card with the little-expected surge of the Sox. Why? What? When? Dave Paisley answers thos e one-word questions with lots of words and visuals.

AL Rookie Round-Up
It's that time of the month again. No, not that time. Time for Jason Barker to revisit the American League's top rookies. Oakland's Ben Grieve continues to dazzle, while the other three youngsters have yet to live up to their potential. What gives?

Heating Pads: May NL Report Card
The American League may have fallen (more or less) into the exact patterns Dave Paisley predicted previously, but the NL simply refuses to be a good corporate citizen. The way we see it, it's gotta be due to the critical mass of really bad Monica Lewinski jokes.

The All-Average Team
It's no crime to be painfully average, but when you're nothing but mediocre but have a reputation that exceeds your talent, it can be incredibly annoying. Derek Zumsteg had to get his feelings on the major leagues' overhyped yet fair-to-middling athletes out of his head before it burst.

Reliefless in Seattle:
May AL Report Card
Spring is almost over, and so is the first trimester of the gestation period for American League division-winners. Don't ask where we're going with this. Instead, let Dave Paisley put the under- and overachievers in the spotlight.

The Awful-Star Game
Admit that you've had enough of Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey and Curt Schilling. Come on over to where pitchers would give up hits that fly like immense flocks of raptors, if only the hitters weren't so crappy too. Dave Paisley admits it - he really wants to see Rey Ordonez face Heathcliff Slocumb. The sickie.

O Damn
If you're a regular reader, you may know that we haven't exactly shared the mainstream press' excitement over the "old-look" Bal'mer Orioles. But not even we expected the Birds to be this doggone bad. Dave Paisley puts it all in blue and white.

A Good Piazza Change
Again with the Mike Piazza thing. Just when you thought it had been analyzed every which way it could, Dave Paisley cooks up a chart and a couple of graphs to suggest that he may have a method to his salary demand madness.

The Sun Also Rises
If you live in New York, your ears are filled with Irabu. If you're a Southern Californian, you may be crying "Nomo!" Sure, we had punchlines to both those statements, but we'd rather let Jason Michael Barker tell you about a couple of lesser-known Japanese imports.

Home Run Race 98
Mark McGwire vs. the single season home run record - no contest, right? Not so fast. It's actually a real horse race this year, and the only certainty is that if Mac should come up lame, they won't shoot him. It's another day, another graph for our rad stat man, Dave Paisley.

The Sun Also Rises
If you live in New York, your ears are filled with Irabu. If you're a Southern Californian, you may be crying "Nomo!" Sure, we had punchlines to both those statements, but we'd rather let Jason Michael Barker tell you about a couple of lesser-known Japanese imports.

Judge That Scrub: Pitchers
If your local team is doing well, you probably already know why: Great hitters like Juan Gonzalez or wily veteran pitchers like David Cone. If your local team is also doubling as concession workers to justify their salaries, you might be a bit more confused. Enter Derek Zumsteg, who's always happy to tell you why your team sucks.

Bad Unit
Randy Johnson has a problem. That much is for sure. What the heck the problem might be is a different story entirely. Dr. Dave Paisley explores the symptoms, attempts to come up with a diagnosis, and shrugs his shoulders and offers to prescribe some Viagra.

AL Rookie Round-Up
It's time to peruse the Junior circuit for rooks that cook and rooks who deserve the hook. Jason Michael Barker undertook to cook the book on the rooks, so the least you could do is look. Quick, avoid any more feeble attempts at Seussism by clicking that link down there.

Derek's All-Rookie Team
If you could assemble the majors' best rookies into a single team, sure the price tag would make Wayne Huizenga drool, but how would they perform? Who would you replace with the Crafty Aging Veteran? And would you have to include shaving sinks in the clubhouse? Derek Zumsteg scratches the surface in the first of a series.

Dodger Dogs?
Fish sent out for Piazza, and the Dodgers delivered, but what's in it for the Boys O' Blue? How does the loss of one of the greatest catchers ever stack up against the acquired talents of the former Wearers of the Teal? Dave Paisley continues our team coverage with some direct comparisons.

Where the Runs Are
The Great RBI Debate never seems to end: Are the guys with the big RBIs really that good? Yes, that is a slide rule in Dave Paisley's pocket.

NL Rookie Round-Up
Every month, Jason Michael Barker checks in on the majors' top rooks, and has even managed to dig up a couple of new ones in the Senior Circuit. The race to ROY is beginning to get crowded in 1998, and the horse race is barely out of the gate.

Break up the Brew-crew!
The grass has certainly been greener on the other side of MLB for the Milwaukee Brewers, at least so far. The Commish's team has been feasting in the NL, and Jason Michael Barker tells you why the league must restock on meats and cheeses.

Joe Carter - Clutch Hitter
or RBI Vulture? Part II
Joe Carter is renowned for his ability to drive in runs like crazy and mocked for his below-average bat. Who's right? Dave Paisley continues to unravel the sordid truth with statistics, analysis, and a really, really big chart.

The Franchise: NL East
Back for a return engagement, it's Jason Michael Barker with one final encore of The Franchise, wherein he finishes strong with a division full of potential MVPs (plus a Phillie, Met, Expo and Marlin).

April in Stats: American League
Now that the NL has been revisited, it's to the AL with Dave Paisley, our own resident statistician. What got into the Rangers' Wheaties, and how can the Tigers get some? Take a looksee...

And review Dave's predictions in the - National League -

Joe Carter - Clutch Hitter or RBI Vulture?
Joe Carter is renowned for his ability to drive in runs like crazy and mocked for his below-average bat. Who's right? Dave Paisley begins to unravel the sordid truth.

Why Are the Greatest the Greatest?
Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and others are always named as the greatest hitters of all time. Is it really so? How would that determined? Dave Paisley does all the 'splainin', Lucy.

AL Cy Young Candidates:
A New Repeat Performer?
Detective Dave Paisley rounds up the usual suspects, but finds most of them a bit lacking this year. But wait, look over there! What about that new guy! You know, he looks awfully familiar...

Griffey's Destiny
That the man they call Junior is a lock for the Hall of Fame is almost a foregone conclusion. But there's a higher calling for Ken Griffey, and although we're the last people in the world who'd want to jinx him, Dave Paisley just has to say it: Griffey could very well break the most sacred of baseball's records.

NL Cy Young Candidates:
Not Just for Maddux Anymore?
Predicting pitcher performance is easy compared to Dave Paisley's newest project, in which he attempts to predict what the Cy Young voters will think of this season's results.

DH: Not a Four-Letter Word
Dave Paisley brings you the last installment in his series of offensive rankings, where he observes that although some designated hitters are the cream of the hitting crop, others should be wearing the latest grocery containment technology as headgear.

This Isn't the PCL Anymore
Jason Michael Barker looks at the struggling rookies National League, and holds out hope for the fine crop of first basemen. His rookie lookie is a regular feature here at strikethree.com.

Might Makes Right
Home of the proverbial cannon-armed outfielder, the right field spot combines power and grace better than any other position on the field. Well, except for Jay Buhner, who at least does OK at the power part.

Also in this fine analysis series by Dave Paisley:

• Left Field
• Center Field
• Shortstops
• Third Basemen
• Second Basemen
• First Basemen, featuring Will Clark!
• Catchers

AL Rookies: Yet to Perform as Advertised
Jason Michael Barker looks at the rooks in the Junior Circuit, and tells the waitress to hold that bag of chips for a while. His rookie lookie is a regular feature here at strikethree.com.

NL Rookies on Rampages
Much like Grandma's kitchen, the National League is well stocked with up-and-coming rookies. I mean, Grandma's kitchen is usually well stocked, but with baked goods and other assorted foodstuffs. If your grandma's kitchen is stocked with top prospects, I know several GMs who would like to get in touch with her.

Also check out Jason's AL Rookie Rampage.