The Ghost of Hitting Past

Dave Paisley

As the Christmas season approaches, I've been reflecting on how Scrooge-like my attitude has been towards certain players. One in particular has caught my attention over the last couple of years as he sucked up dollars while returning very little in the way of results. Occupying a prime offensive position on his team, he has soaked up at-bats and shortchanged his team immensely. Oh, but there I go again, being negative.

Finally, however, he has reluctantly realized the error of his ways, or to be more precise, even the Twins and Jays wised up to his performance shortcomings and refused to offer him any more money, so he finally retired.

I am, of course, talking about Paul Molitor.

My razzing him hasn't just been because he's taken a lot of money to be the worst full-time DH in baseball, but also because he's devalued what had been a pretty good career until about '96. The overwhelming consensus is that he'll make the Hall of Fame easily on the strength of his 3,000 hits and generally decent play over quite a long career. In fact, let's take a look at that career graphically.

I've omitted 1984 entirely, as it seems pointless to judge an injured man on 46 at-bats. The blue line represents a three-year moving average, weighted by at-bats, while the gray line shows the more variable annual performance. It's been quite a drop since '94, with only a minor boost in '96 upon his return home to Minnesota.

To figure out just how grim his '98 performance was, he actually had a batting average of .281, which means his OPS (on base plus slugging, remember) had to be at least .562. The fact that by adding power and walks he was only able to raise it to a measly .717 is a testament to just how punchless he has grown. And yet here's the guy that peaked in 1987 with a .353 batting average, a .438 OBP, and a .566 SLG for a 91-71 Brewers team that finished a mere third in the AL behind Detroit and Toronto.

And it isn't like you can use the typical excuse of "well, he just wants one last try at the World Series". He won his ring with the Blue Jays, and the Twins of the last few years have fooled nobody into thinking they're anything but cannon fodder.

Damn, there I go again, being negative. Must stop that.

Anyway, it's a good thing Paul finally quit before he actually damages his chance of making the Hall of Fame by batting at a sub-Ordonez like pace. All the trends on the graph point to really, really bad things, so it's definitely time to hang up the cleats. I can almost buy the rationale of a shortstop hitting that poorly, but certainly not a DH.

So there's my positive, upbeat column for the holiday season. Relax in comfort, Mr. Molitor. Enjoy the roaring fire, the eggnog and the fruitcake.

Now all I have to work on is Cal Ripken...

about the author

Dave Paisley would like to buy each and every Strikethree.com reader an autographed 1998 Mark McGwire home run ball as a holiday gift. Unfortunately, there aren't enough for everyone, and it wouldn't be fair to give them to just 70 of you, not even if you whine to drdjp@strikethree.com.