Awards Redux

Dave Paisley

After taking such pains to estimate what the Baseball Writers' Association of America would do with this year's awards, I felt it only fair to critique the final results. In the AL, I think the BBWAA did the right thing in selecting Roger Clemens. Not only do the traditional triple crown numbers make him a clear winner, so do the "stathead" numbers.

Opponents' OPS is the On Base Percentage plus Slugging that opponents managed to get off a pitcher. Meanwhile, run support from his own team (or lack of it) is crucial to a pitcher's Won/Lost record. Take a look at these numbers:

Player	Triple Crown Rating	Opponents' OPS	Run Support
Roger Clemens	1.000	.573	4.99
Pedro Martinez	.931	.625	5.43
David Cone	.839	.673	6.89
David Wells	.754	.663	6.84
Rick Helling	.735	.730	6.91
Aaron Sele	.731	.756	6.69

Clemens managed to win the triple crown by keeping opponents from generating offense, and he did it with the lowest run support numbers of any CY candidate. Note the incredible support the Yankee pitchers got.

Over in the National League, the picture was less clear, but here are the numbers:

Player	Triple Crown Rating	Opponents' OPS	Run Support
Kevin Brown	.896	.573	4.66
Greg Maddux	.860	.559	4.95
Curt Schilling	.811	.655	3.82
Tom Glavine	.807	.625	5.30
Al Leiter	.776	.604	5.13
Shane Reynolds	.760	.750	6.75
Trevor Hoffman	-	.461	2.47

Tom Glavine is good, but both Maddux and Brown beat him by a mile for pitching effectiveness. Without Hoffman to split the vote, I'm sure Brown would have been an easy winner. Much is made of the difference in roles between relievers and starters, but Hoffman's numbers are impressive. Worthy of a Cy? I'm not sure. I'm also not sure how meaningful run support is for a closer, but he sure didn't get much. Speaking of low run support -- look at Schilling's. Wow.

The battle between Maddux and Brown is closer then most people realize.There's not much to choose between them in Opponents' OPS, and the lower run support for Brown (the Padres' anemic offense) makes his performance overall more impressive for me. Interesting how park effects show up: his raw numbers are much better at home, but he was 8-5 there, against 10-2 on the road, and the Padres' offense was much more biased toward home advantage. Need a win on the road, no matter what? Get Kevin.

Count this one as a royal screwup for the BBWAA. No way Glavine should have won. Pick Brown, Maddux or Hoffman ahead of Glavine. Royal screwup, one for two for the BBWAA.

On to the MVPs:

Player	Triple Crown Rating	OPS
Albert Belle	.937	1.054
Ken Griffey Jr.	.923	.976
Juan Gonzalez	.914	.996
Manny Ramirez	.865	.976
Alex Rodriguez	.818	.920
Mo Vaughn	.814	.993

The race here went to Juan "official scorer-intimidator" Gonzalez, and at first blush it doesn't seem unreasonable. However, take into account park effects, and the difference goes away. Want an MVP candidate who made the playoffs? Try Manny Ramirez, Mo Vaughn or Nomar. Please...anyone but Juan "no, I think I'll have two undeserved MVPs" Gonzalez.

If we really give a rip about actual performance, Albert Belle should get the award. Yeah, right, like that's going to happen ever again.

Call this another major screwup for the BBWAA. One for three so far.

Finally, the NL MVP:

Player	Triple Crown Rating	OPS
Sammy Sosa	.930	1.024
Mark McGwire	.918	1.222
Vinny Castilla	.816	.951
Andres Galarraga	.745	.992
Greg Vaughn	.739	.960
Moises Alou	.729	.981

Sammy was a pretty good sentimental pick. No doubt Mac had one of the finest offense seasons ever, but if you don't make the playoffs, people question how much pressure you were under, and let's face it, the Cards were gone the last half of the season. No pitching - no chance (ask the Mariners how much offense can make up for lousy pitching.)

Interesting that Bonds was again missing in action - the BBWAA treat him like he was Albert Belle or something. One thing I don't get is the fact that there are morons out there voting Mark McGwire seventh. Geez, I'd love to be playing in their fantasy leagues.

Anyone who thought the BBWAA would vote McGwire MVP was smoking something that's legal in some states only for patients with terminal illnesses. Of course, when I think of the BBWAA, the phrase "terminal illness" immediately pops into my mind anyway.

Despite all that, I'll call this one a tie.

Overall: BBWAA 1.5 - Sanity 2.5

Once again, it's time to get out the straight jackets.

 

about the author

Dave Paisley will be operating the scoreboard at the new Mariners ballpark next year. Send him scoreboard trivia ideas like "Juan Gonzalez is a big dummy head" at drdjp@strikethree.com.