A Bull Market in Mediocrity

Dave Paisley

That shrewd old fox over in Boston, Dan Duquette, apparently knows the value of On Base Percentage, and that value is $26M over four years. For those of you keeping score at home, that's about half of what the best catcher in baseball history is worth. Now remember that this is the same guy who thought second base was so important he went out and got that offensive powerhouse Mark Lemke last season to provide that veteran spark. Lemke's career OBP is .317, not exactly what we're looking for in the offense department.

Jose Offerman is the player we're talking about, and he's certainly the right kind of guy to be chasing this offseason. he's also a guy for whom Friday the 13th isn't a nightmare. For Dan Duquette, maybe not so much. One has to question the sanity of GM who decides he must have the latest toy at any price. With the impending loss of Mo Vaughn, the Red Sox are planning to have Offerman play second, first and designated hitter. As a second baseman, he'd be just fine. A little overpriced, but close to worth it.

As a first baseman, however, he replaces Vaughn, while we get to see Mike "Where's Waldo" Benjamin (.312 OBP, .372 SLG) or some other scrub play second. Only God knows what the offense will be like if Offerman is DH. Boston was already an unconventional offensive team, getting most of their production from the infield rather than the more conventional model of having the outfield help the batting and run scoring. With a depleted offensive infield they could be in deep trouble. It might work if they can sign Bernie Williams, but I'm not betting any of my paycheck on that.

Offerman isn't the only mediocre player benefiting from the slim pickings in the middle of the pack, though. Mike Timlin, one-time Toronto and part-time Seattle closer, parlayed half of a meaningless season into big bucks ($16M, four years) from that ever-so-kind Peter Angelos. I'm sure Angelos must have some kind of charitable bent towards failed Seattle relievers, having been generous enough to keep Norm Charlton's career alive last year. Timlin, of course, isn't a bad pitcher. He's just not necessarily a good one. Sure, he posts those good looking ERAs, and all he fundamentals seem to be there, but when you look at his history, he only does well when there's no pressure on him.

In Toronto's glory days, he was the anonymous setup man. Make him the closer and he gets about as many saves as any trained chimp could manage, all in meaningless Toronto seasons. Thrown into the Seattle cauldron, he struggled until Seattle was safely out of the playoff race, then settled down to some excellent, meaningless closer work. Baltimore may live to regret this contract, as the bulk of that $16M is paid in the last two years, and Timlin could be bad, expensive and difficult to unload in two years' time.

And who said a little butt-kissing never gets you anywhere? Alan Mills reunited with Davey Johnson, Kevin Malone and 6.5 million George Washingtons. "With Jeff Shaw, Mel Rojas, Antonio Osuna and now Mills, we are as strong as we can be right-handed in the bullpen,'' said Dodgers general manager Kevin Malone. Interesting that the most lowly-regarded of the bunch is probably Osuna, who is probably the best pitcher. Good luck to the Dodgers, as they blunder their way through the free agent market.

Well, it's a fun time of year, with all these changes. GM's trying to fit round pegs in square holes and vice versa.

But we all still want to know the answer to the big two questions: Where will Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown end up?

Only one thing's for sure, I'm not betting any money on Seattle.

 

about the author

Dave Paisley has offered Bernie Williams $500 to play on his beer league team next year. If you're Scott Boras, please return his calls at drdjp@strikethree.com.