Longer is Not Always Better

Jason Michael Barker

Mike Piazza recently signed a seven-year contract worth $13M per season, but the alarming part of the deal, to me at least, is not the money. Compared to the current salary structure, $13M isn't all that much to pay for the greatest-hitting catcher of all time. No, the aspect of the deal which concerns me is the length. While it's certainly possible that Piazza will still be performing at his current level in seven years, it doesn't seem very likely. You might go so far as to argue that Piazza, who will be 30 next season, won't even be a regular player by the time his contract expires, but for the moment the distinction is irrelevant.

This deal marks a disturbing trend in baseball -- that of teams signing relatively old (i.e. age 30+) players to long-term contracts, disregarding that the players won't be up to par down the road. You can't really fault either side on this issue, though. For their part, the players are going to look for the security of a long-term deal over a short one, and you would do the same thing if you were lucky enough to be in their situation.

As for the teams and general managers, it's safe to assume most of them understand the repercussions of a long-term deal. But if you want Bernie Williams for the next couple seasons, you'll have to sign him for six years or none at all if that's what he and his agent want. With all the pressure to "win now" and put butts in the seats, what other choice do they have?

Player	Age	Team	Contract
Mike Piazza	30	Mets	7 years
Dean Palmer	30	Tigers	5 years
Mike Timlin	33	Orioles	4 years
Al Leiter	33	Mets	4 years
Jose Offerman	30	Red Sox	4 years
Devon White	36	Dodgers	3 years
Scott Brosius	32	Yankees	3 years
Ken Caminiti	36	???	offered 3
Randy Johnson	35	???	seeking 4?
Bernie Williams	30	???	seeking 6–7?
Age as of June 1, 1999

Friday, the Boston Red Sox filled their hole at second by announcing the signing of free agent Jose Offerman, formerly of the Kansas City Royals, to a four-year deal. Offerman does a good job getting on base, and is a huge upgrade over what the Sox had at 2B last year, but here's the kicker -- he'll be 30 years old next season, 34 at the end of his contract. Ideally, Boston would probably have liked to ink him for just one or two years, as a quick fix until someone develops in the farm system, but they were forced to go long-term to ensure signing him.

Meanwhile in New York, the rival Yankees were busy signing World Series MVP Scott Brosius to a three-year deal. Brosius, 32, is coming off of a career year, and it would have been hard to justify letting him go after his Series heroics. However, the Yanks have a top 3B prospect in Mike Lowell who showed last season by his performance at AAA that he's ready for the bigs. What of Lowell now? In addition to coming with a much lower price tag, he should provide as much offense as Brosius does by 2000, if not next season.

There are other signings that seem risky at best (see chart), but I'd like to close with three players who have yet to sign -- Randy Johnson, Ken Caminiti, and the aforementioned Bernie Williams.

Johnson, 35 next season, is reportedly seeking a four-year contract. Do general managers believe he'll be worth it by the time he's 39? Of course not. But if having him lead you to the pennant next season means possibly eating the last year of his contract, that's the price you've got to pay.

Before signing Dean Palmer (to a ridiculous five-year deal), Detroit offered Caminiti, 36, a three-year deal. If you're a Tigers fan, the thought of Cammy trying to play 3B at age 39 must have kept you up nights. Given his injury history and age, any more than a one-year deal seems a huge risk, but rest assured, some team will take that risk in order to secure his services for 1999.

Finally, Bernie Williams, who during the season was reportedly seeking a six or seven-year contract. Williams, 30, is a great player, but he always seems to spend some time on the DL. He's never played more than 144 games in a season (yes, I know 1995 was shortened), and given his age, may have peaked. Will he be the same player by the time he's 36? I'll let you answer that one.

 

about the author

Jason Michael Barker would like it known that he has never signed a long-term deal, opting instead for a new one-year contract at the end of each season. As such, he's never hit the big money. Try to explain why his family is so upset with him to jmb@strikethree.com.