Free Agency: Buyer Beware

Jason Michael Barker

Throughout Major League Baseball, teams are gearing up for free agency. General managers are talking with player agents, trying to get a grasp of what it will cost to sign the likes of Bernie Williams, Randy Johnson, and Kevin Brown.

At the same time, there are players out there you're hoping your favorite team won't sign -- players who are getting up there in age, players who have been helped by their home park, players who are injury risks. Such free-agent lemons are the bane of many fans, who wonder why their team signed 38-year old Joe Blow for $5M per season when they could have had a top-notch player for only slightly more cash.

Who are the potential free-agent busts of 1998, and why will some team overspend for their services? Have no fear, strikethree.com is here for you.

Jose Canseco, DH/OF
Canseco, who will be 35 next June, played his first 150-game season since 1991 and turned in an admirable campaign for the Toronto Blue Jays in 1998. He hit a career-high 46 home runs and slugged .518, but only managed a meager .318 OBP. He also stole 29 bases, but at just a 63% clip. He can't really play the outfield anymore, and wherever he goes next season he'll likely be a full-time designated hitter.

The Jays, who would like to retain Canseco at the right price, have reportedly offered a one-year, $1.5M contract plus incentives. However, Canseco and his agent are looking for more -- much more. Basking in the glory of the Mike Piazza contract, Canseco feels he's worth at least half of what Piazza got, since he hit 46 home runs.

Considering that there are numerous players sitting around AAA who could do just as well as Canseco at a fraction of the price, $7M for an injury-prone DH on the decline seems utterly ridiculous.

Scott Brosius, 3B
World Series hero Brosius will likely receive a generous contract from some team, be it the Yankees or otherwise. He had a good 1998 season, and his post-season performance can only enhance his value on the market. However, he'll be 33 next season, about the age players usually begin to decline. Also, don't forget that this is the same Scott Brosius who hit .203/.259/.317 in 1997.

It isn't usual for players who show such marked improvement after age 30 to maintain that level of performance for more than a season or two (see Steve Finley). While he probably won't fall flat on his face in 1999, Brosius will probably be overpaid in 1999 and fail to live up to the expectations of the contract he'll likely sign in the coming months.

Steve Finley, CF
Why the Padres stuck with Finley when they have Ruben Rivera waiting in the wings is beyond me, but there's talk of brining back the venerable outfielder. Finley, who turns 34 next March, managed just a .702 OPS this season while slipping a notch on defense. Before becoming a solid offensive contributor in 1995, he made up for his lack of production with stellar defense, but now both the offense and the defense are things of the past. He's likely to be a big disappointment to any team who signs him with high expectations.

Ellis Burks, OF
While there isn't as big a Coors Field effect as you might think (Burks actually hit better on the road in 1998), there are other signs pointing to a decline. For starters, he just turned 34. Bad sign. Secondly, there are concerns about his health. Upon being traded to San Francisco this July, Burks told the Giants his back was acting up to the point that he couldn't handle the rigors of playing centerfield everyday. While this isn't a huge deal, it is the sign of an aching and aging player.

Burks would be best suited to signing in the American League, where he could DH every day and reduce the wear and tear on his body, but given his numbers over the past few seasons he's likely to be subjected to the inflated expectations which go along with a big contract.

 

about the author

Who exactly is Jason Michael Barker? None have learned and lived to tell the tale, but you're more than welcome to pass a query or two along to jmb@strikethree.com. Unless you're chicken. Also feel free to tell him that Halloween has come and gone, and he really shouldn't be trying to scare people, the big meanie.