One More Look Back

Dave Paisley

With the lull before the annual awards come out, I thought I'd revisit my pre-season predictions one more time to see how I did. Overall, not too bad I'd say, with the odd major exception...

American League East
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
New York	96	114	-18	Well, who was predicting the Yankees to win 114 games?
Boston	91	92	-1	One of my better predictions.
Toronto	87	88	-1	As was this. I thought the Blue Jays would be an interesting dark horse for the wild card, and so it proved. Only a really awful first half held them back.
Baltimore	87	79	8	Overpredicted by 8 games, and I was one of the pessimistic forecasters.
Tampa Bay	64	63	1	No surprise here.

American League Central
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
Cleveland	91	89	2	Ho hum. Another easy romp in the AL Central.
White Sox	72	80	-8	Albert Belle's MVP caliber season helped them do better, but they were never in contention. What could they have done if Frank Thomas had actually played?
Kansas City	67	72	-5	Down here, who cares? More futility for the Royals. Expect more of the same.
Minnesota	67	70	-3	And again.
Detroit	69	65	4	Ouch, and again.

  Predicted Wins

American League West
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
Texas	84	88	-4	Marginally better than predicted, and good enough to win the division with a Mariner flameout.
Anaheim	80	85	-5	Contending, barely. Good showing considering the amount and severity of injuries.
Seattle	103	76	27	Bust of the year. Self-immolation all the way. My prediction was probably 8 games too high, but this was ridiculous.
Oakland	76	74	2	Loaded with promise, but yet to deliver, still. Wait till next year? Again.

National League East
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
Atlanta	104	106	-2	How easy it is to pencil these boys in for 100+ wins every year.
Mets	82	88	-6	Well, of course, if you drag in Mike Piazza for half a year you'll over perform.
Philadelphia	72	75	-3	Did marginally better than I predicted, but well within the Phillies normal range of suckosity.
Montreal	66	65	1	This is scary. I really hate to see the Expos this low. I'm not that happy my prediction was right on.
Florida	66	54	12	Can you say "just desserts?" No sympathy here. This was just embarrassing.

National League Central
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
Houston	87	102	-15	OK, so you get Randy Johnson, who single-handedly improves you by about five games. Still a very good year.
Cubs	77	90	-13	A suddenly effective Sammy Sosa and Kerry Wood combine to put some backbone into a usually mediocre Cubs squad. Good for them, but don't expect it to continue.
St. Louis	94	83	11	Pitching injury meltdown. Without most of their projected starting rotation this team was going nowhere, even with Myke Mcguire. Or whatever his name is.
Cincinnati	85	77	8	Trading away your number one starter right before the season isn't generally a good sign. Managed to stockpile lots of good young prospects, but they can't all play 1B.
Milwaukee	76	74	2	Oh yeah, that switch to the NL really helped.
Pittsburgh	70	69	1	A much-predicted return to earth for a struggling franchise. Look, Tony Womack is not, repeat not, a good leadoff hitter. He's not a good hitter, period. OK?

Predicted Wins

National League West
Team	Predicted Wins	Actual  Wins	Actual -  Predicted	Comments
San Diego	81	98	-17	I way under-predicted the effect that Dave Stewart and Kevin Brown would have on the pitching staff. Neither will be there next year, so don't expect to be back in the Series anytime soon.
San Francisco	82	89	-7	Looks like the Dodgers and Giants switched places on me. As San Diego had them blown away early, who cares?
Los Angeles	91	83	8	No amount of juggling could make this team a winner.
Colorado	92	77	15	What the hell was I thinking? Well, I won't make that mistake again.
Arizona	71	65	6	Under-performed even my pessimistic expectations. Not that it matters much.

 

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently plotting Jeff Manto's career as a scatter graph with a three-dimensional matrix. Explain that even Manto himself doesn't care about his career that much at drdjp@strikethree.com. 

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