World Series Preview

Dave Paisley

The World Series is upon us. The (mostly) hated Yankees against the upstart Padres. I certainly didn't expect the Padres to be here, and especially not after beating two teams that were demonstrably better than them during the regular season. Especially after the near-disaster of Bruce Bochy's mishandling of the bullpen in the NLCS.

And yet here they are, with their ace all primed for Games 1, 4 and 7 if necessary. It's proof that good pitching beats good hitting, or to be more accurate, good pitching beats other good pitching with lousy hitting and a godawful defense. Not that you'll ever hear anything that complicated from Tim McCarver.

Everyone expected the Yankees to be here, and except for a minor hiccup against the Indians, here they are. But will Chuck Knoblauch remember to play ball instead of arguing with the umpires?

As ever, I always find it instructive to look at the numbers before pontificating, and today is no exception. We'll compare regular season and postseason numbers so far, position by position for the teams.

Let's start with the so-called hitting.

Overall, the postseason numbers are shockingly bad compared to the regular season. Note that the playoff numbers are just averaged  -- not weighted for at-bats, so Leyritz and Vander Wal, both of whom haven't played full time, inflate the Padres' offensive numbers (pretty damn offensive they are, too).

At catcher, it would be silly not to start Leyritz. He isn't getting on base much, but when he does, he doesn't usually have to run very hard. Posada is the better choice for the Yanks. Slight advantage to the Padres. At first, Tino Martinez has been marginally better than Wally Joyner, but Joyner has had a productive playoffs. Time for Tino to bust out?

Both second sackers have had awful postseasons, but Veras seems to have been involved in all the Padres scoring so far. Call this one about even. Third base should be a no-contest, but Brosius has been hot, Caminiti cold, except for the occasional game-winner here and there. Expect Caminiti  to rise to the occasion.

The biggest no-contest is at short, where Derek Jeter handily whomps Chris Gomez, although both have been cold in the playoffs. Tough to tell the difference with Gomez, but Jeter can only get better. Both outfields have been similar, with one moderately hot player and two cold ones. Bernie Williams has the most potential to bust something open, and maybe he will in the Series. I'm just guessing at DH for the Padres, but Vander Wal has been hot and will probably see some action, probably mixed in with Leyritz if Carlos Hernandez catches. It's possibly a wash against the usually solid Chili Davis.

Overall, the Yanks have the better offense, and they aren't carrying around offensive millstones like Finley and Gomez, so it'll take some spectacular work from the Padres' pitching to keep games close.
 

	New York Yankees			San Diego Padres
Pos	Player	Season OPS	Playoff OPS	Player	Season OPS	Playoff OPS	Season Diff
C	Posada	.825	.774	Leyritz	.851	1.110	.026
1B	Martinez	.860	.583	Joyner	.823	.816	-.037
2B	Knoblauch	.766	.480	Veras	.729	.557	-.037
3B	Brosius	.843	.931	Caminiti	.862	.722	.019
SS	Jeter	.865	.528	Gomez	.725	.550	-.140
LF	Raines	.778	.508	Vaughn	.960	.811	.182
CF	Williams	.997	.681	Finley	.702	.718	-.295
RF	O'Neill	.882	.958	Gwynn	.865	.531	-.017
DH	Davis	.850	.754	Vander Wal	.894	1.300	.044
Average		.852	.689	Average	.823	.791	-.028

And speaking of pitching, it has been very good for both teams. The Padres key to success has mostly been in not giving up the longball, only five so far, against the Yankees nine. Sterling Hitchcock hasn't succumbed yet, though, so maybe time will tell. 3-0 so far in the playoffs is pretty good, and he'll no doubt be out to impress his old club.

If I were to guess, I'd figure that the Padres will go with Brown, Ashby and Hitchcock, and be ready to throw Brown into game 4 depending on the situation. With anything but a 3-0 lead, though, I suspect he goes. Hamilton will likely be a long relief reserve for the first three games.

For the Yanks, Andy Pettitte is the wild card. Do they go with Wells, Cone and Hernandez, then see how things lie before sending out Pettitte? They have more breadth in pitching options, but none that look as solid as Brown/Ashby/Hitchcock right now.
 

	New York Yankees			San Diego Padres
Role	Pitcher	Season ERA	Playoff ERA	Pitcher	Season ERA	Playoff ERA
SP	Wells	3.49	1.90	Brown	2.38	1.44
SP	Pettitte	4.24	5.40	Ashby	3.34	3.18
SP	Cone	3.55	2.89	Hitchcock	3.93	1.13
SP	Hernandez	3.13	.00	Hamilton	4.27	3.38
SP	Mendoza	3.25	.00	Langston	5.86	.00
	Average	3.53	2.48	Average	3.96	2.06
RP	Lloyd	1.67	.00	Boehringer	4.36	.00
RP	Nelson	3.79	6.75	Miceli	3.22	4.50
RP	Stanton	5.47	.00	Wall	2.43	4.50
RP	Rivera	1.91	.00	Hoffman	1.48	1.23
	Average	3.21	1.53	Average	2.87	2.46

As for the bullpens, Rivera has been the Yankees' horse, and has shut down all comers (one hit and two walks in nine innings!), while the San Diego pen seems to have lost favor with Mr. Bochy. Not a good sign going into the World Series. Nevertheless, Trevor Hoffman is still, well, Trevor Hoffman, so Bochy is just going to have to trust Wall, Miceli and Boehringer to bridge any gaps.

So overall, a nod to the Yankees for hitting, slight edge to the Padres on starting rotation, based on current form, and an edge to the Yankees in relief.

It should be a fun World Series, and the Yankees are by no means a certainty. Just ask the Braves.

 

about the author

Dave Paisley will be watching the World Series with a new, 3-dimensional video technology. Join him in pleading for no closeups of Don Zimmer at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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