1998 NLCS: Padres vs. Braves

The Teams
San Diego Padres (98-64) vs. Atlanta Braves (106-56)

How They Got Here
Atlanta swept Chicago three games to none in one NLDS, holding the Cubs to just four runs in those three games. San Diego beat Houston three games to one in the other Division Series, led by the pitching of Kevin Brown, who allowed just one earned run over 14.1 innings. The Astros, who scored one run in each of their three losses, were outscored 14-8 in the series.

The Schedule
Game 1 at Atlanta; Wednesday October 7, 8:15 p.m. ET
Probable starters: Kevin Brown (18-7), Smoltz (17-3)

Game 2 at Atlanta; Thursday October 8, 8:15 p.m. ET
Probable starters: Andy Ashby (17-9), Tom Glavine (20-6)

Game 3 at San Diego, Saturday October 10, 4:15 p.m. ET
Probable starters: Sterling Hitchcock (9-7), Greg Maddux (18-9)

Game 4 at San Diego; Sunday October 11, 7:45 p.m. ET
Probable starters: To be determined

*Game 5 at San Diego; Monday October 12, 8:10 p.m. ET
*Game 6 at Atlanta; Wednesday October 14, 4:20 p.m. ET
*Game 7 at Atlanta; Thursday October 15, 8:15 p.m. ET

* If necessary

Head to Head
The teams split 12 games this season, with each team going 4-2 at home. For the Padres, Andy Ashby was 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts against the Braves, while Atlanta's John Smoltz was 1-1 in two starts against San Diego despite an identical 1.80 ERA.

Fun Facts
This marks Atlanta's seventh consecutive appearance in the NLCS dating back to 1991, and they've won four of the six they've appeared in during that span... The Padres' only other trip to the NLCS was in 1984, when they beat the Chicago Cubs three games to two, going on to lose the World Series to the Detroit Tigers... Padres C Jim Leyritz hit a game-tying home run against the Braves in game four of the 1996 World Series as a member of the Yankees... P Kevin Brown beat the Braves twice last NLCS as a member of the eventual World Champion Florida Marlins.

Position-by-Position Comparison (with 1998 OPS)
Catcher: Jim Leyritz (.851) vs. Javy Lopez (.868)
Two good-hitting catchers with extensive postseason experience. Although their OPS numbers are similar, they're actually quite different. Leyritz' is a product of his .384 OBP, while Lopez' is due to his .540 SLG. Since Leyritz probably won't be the Padres' full-time catcher, and his replacements are mediocre at best, Lopez gets the nod. Edge: Atlanta

First Base: Wally Joyner (.823) vs. Andres Galarraga (.992)
Despite leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field, "The Big Cat" turned in another fine campaign, and he's still great around the bag. Leyritz may spell the left-handed hitting Joyner at 1B against tough lefty Tom Glavine, but even he can't compete with Galarraga's production. Edge: Atlanta

Second Base: Quilvio Veras (.729) vs. Keith Lockhart (.699)
That OPS difference may not seem like much, but the difference in OBP is huge -- .373 to .311 in favor of Veras. The underrated second sacker also has the edge in the field and on the basepaths, as he has much better range and stole 22 bases more than Lockhart. Edge: San Diego

Third Base: Ken Caminiti (.862) vs. Chipper Jones (.951)
Two of the top three 3B in the National League, with Philly's Scott Rolen being the other. Chipper is top dog at the position, however, and is better than an aging Caminiti both at the plate and in the field. Edge: Atlanta

Shortstop: Chris Gomez (.725) vs. Walt Weiss (.729)
Just as with the Veras-Lockhart match-up, OPS does not the whole story tell. Again, this one comes down to OBP, where it's .386 to 346, Weiss. Edge: Atlanta

Left Field: Greg Vaughn (.960) vs. Ryan Klesko (.832)
Vaughn had a great year after last season's debacle, while Klesko has now had three consecutive seasons of getting worse. Ouch. Oh, and he still hasn't figured out left-handed pitching. Edge: San Diego

Center Field: Steve Finley (.702) vs. Andruw Jones (.836)
Steve Finley is no longer a productive player, and the defense which used to make him valuable has disappeared with age. Say what you will about Jones' attitude and work ethic, but his stellar defense alone is enough to mop the floor with Finley. He also outslugged Finley .515 to .401, but who's counting? Edge: Atlanta

Right Field: Tony Gwynn (.865) vs. Michael Tucker (.745)
Let's see -- one of the best hitters in the game, who also boasts a .501 slugging percentage, or an overrated player who can't hit and strikes out too much? Edge: San Diego

Bench
Huge disparity here. The Braves have three very good bats off the bench in OF Gerald Williams (.856), 1B Greg Colbrunn (.813) and C Eddie Perez (.941), who had an excellent year backing up Javy Lopez. Both Williams and Colbrunn are used primarily against left-handed pitching, although Colbrunn hit much better against righties this season. 2B Tony Graffanino (.593), SS Ozzie Guillen (.661) and 2B Marty Malloy (.554) offer little in the way of offense, serving only as emergency depth in the middle infield, while Danny Bautista (.670) rounds out the outfield with good range and a strong throwing arm.

The Padres lack any real threat off the bench, the only semblance being OF John Vander Wal (.894), who padded his numbers with the Rockies before a late-season trade to San Diego. Fellow OF Ruben Rivera (.703), a perennial prospect, late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner, has good plate discipline and runs well, although he hasn't hit much this season. Andy Sheets (.725) provides depth in the middle infield, while Mark Sweeney (.663) rounds out the outfield. Another perennial prospect, 3B George Arias (.654), has always put up big minor-league numbers but has never been given a real shot in the bigs. Two catchers, Carlos Hernandez (.674) and Greg Myers (.686) round out the roster, with Hernandez getting the call when Leyritz isn't behind the plate. Edge: Atlanta

Starting Rotation
No question about it, each team's strength lies in their starters. The Braves go four deep with John Smoltz (2.90 ERA), Tom Glavine (2.47), Greg Maddux (2.22) and Denny Neagle (3.55), the best four in baseball today. San Diego counters with a terrific one-two punch in Kevin Brown (2.38) and Andy Ashby (3.34), followed by two dependable starters in Sterling Hitchcock (3.93) and Joey Hamilton (4.27).

It's a close one, but Atlanta gets the edge due to experience. All four of their starters have post-season experience, and all four have been to the World Series at least once. Among the Padres' starters, only Brown has any extensive post-season experience. Edge: Atlanta

Bullpen
Much like the Yankees, the Braves don't rely much on their bullpen thanks to great starting pitching, but bullpens always seem to come into play in the post-season. Closer Kerry Ligtenberg (2.71 ERA) was awesome down the stretch, saving 21 of 23 with a 1.13 ERA. For the season, he held opposing batters to a .555 OPS. After Ligtenberg, however, things fall off. Usually a starter, Kevin Millwood (4.08) held right-handed bats to a .281 OBP this season, any could be used for two or three innings at a time. Rudy Seanez (.275) is tough on righties (.226 OBP), but he's hit hard by lefties (.365 OBP).

Veteran Dennis Martinez (4.45) is good for one time through the line-up before he falls apart, and he was hit very hard this season with runners on base. LHP Odalis Perez (4.22) threw only 10.1 innings this season, but the need for a lefty in then pen found him on the post-season roster. He held opposing batters to a .311 OBP, and retired 8 of 10 first batters, but has no big-game experience and is prone to control problems. John Rocker (2.13), another lefty, is used primarily in one-batter situations but can pitch up to one inning before faltering. The key to the success of the Atlanta pen is in manager Bobby Cox' handling of his pitchers. Managed correctly (specifically making the correct lefty/righty decisions), this group could dominate.

San Diego had a very strong pen this season, led by closer Trevor Hoffman, who blew just one save in 54 chances while posting a 1.48 ERA and holding opposing batters to a .461 ERA. Brian Boehringer (4.36 ERA) had a rough first half, but rebounded after the break with a 3.31 ERA and .229 OBP-against. Dan Miceli (3.22) was tough on righties (.257 OBP) as Hoffman's primary setup man.

The best of the non-Hoffman bunch is Donne Wall (2.43), who posted a 1.91 ERA after the break while holding opposing batters to a .293 OBP. More importantly, Wall is equally tough on both righties and lefties, and held batters to a .511 OPS with runners on base. Randy Myers (4.92) was brought over from Toronto to be a situational lefty, a role in which he failed miserably. Myers allowed 9 earned runs in 5.2 September innings, as well as a .338 OBP to left-handed bats over the course of the season. Edge: San Diego

Prediction: Atlanta, four games to two
This one comes down to starting pitching, as the offense is basically a wash -- If Maddux and company have it going, this series could be over even sooner than six games. Then again, all San Diego needs is one of either Joey Hamilton or Sterling Hitchcock to step up, coupled with some shaky Atlanta bullpen work, and it could easily go the other way. This should be a great matchup.

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