ALCS Preview: Indians vs. Yankees

The Teams
Cleveland Indians (89-73) vs. New York Yankees (114-48)

How They Got Here
New York swept Texas three games to none in their Division Series, holding the Rangers to just one run in those three games. Cleveland beat Boston three games to one in their series. After dropping the first game 11-3, the Indians outscored the Red Sox 15-6 over the final three games of the series.

The Schedule
Game 1 at New York; Tuesday October 6, 8:07 pm ET
Probable pitchers: Jaret Wright (12-10), David Wells (18-4)

Game 2 at New York; Wednesday October 7, 4:07 pm ET
Probable pitchers: Charles Nagy (15-10), David Cone (20-7)

Game 3 at Cleveland; Friday, October 9, 8:07 pm ET
Probable pitchers: Andy Pettitte (16-11), Bartolo Colon (14-9)

Game 4 at Cleveland; Saturday, October 10, 7:07 pm ET
Probable pitchers: Orlando Hernandez (12-4), Dwight Gooden (8-6)

*Game 5 at Cleveland; Sunday October 11, 4:07 pm ET
*Game 6 at New York; Tuesday October 13, 8:07 pm ET
*Game 7 at New York; Wednesday October 14, 8:07 pm ET

* If necessary

Head to Head
The Yankees won 7 of 11 games against the Tribe in 1998, including three of four in New York in mid-September. Overall, the Yankees won 4 of 5 at home, and split the six games in Cleveland.

Fun Facts
Cleveland eliminated New York three games to two in last year's AL Division Series on their way to the World Series... Cleveland's OF Mark Whiten and P Doc Gooden are former Yankees... OF Chad Curtis played 22 games with the Indians in 1997 before being traded to the Yankees... RF Manny Ramirez' 11 postseason home runs are a Cleveland team record... This marks the Indians' third trip to the ALCS in the last four seasons... Including the regular season, New York has now won 10 straight games.

Position-by-Position Comparison (with 1998 OPS)
Catcher: Sandy Alomar Jr. (.622) vs. Jorge Posada/Joe Girardi (.825/.703)
New York's platoon was no match for Ivan Rodriguez of the Rangers, but they win this match-up by a long shot. Even individually, both Posada and Girardi are better than Alomar, who had a truly pathetic year at the plate. Edge: New York

First Base: Jim Thome (.997) vs. Tino Martinez (.860)
Tino Martinez is a good player, but he's no Jim Thome. Thome might spend some time at DH in this series, in which case young slugger Richie Sexon (.936) will play 1B, and Sexon gives Tino a run for his money as well. Edge: Cleveland

Second Base: Joey Cora (.727) vs. Chuck Knoblauch (.760)
Knoblauch may have had an off year at the plate, but even in his sleep he's a better player than Cora, who hit very poorly after joining the Indians in late August. Cora's penchant for erratic throws to first make so-so Knoblauch look like a Gold Glover out there. Think of Cora as Omar Vizquel -- but without the defense. Edge: New York

Third Base: Travis Fryman (.844) vs. Scott Brosius (.843)
A tough call between two veterans. Fryman has a 30-point edge in slugging, but Brosius has a 30-point edge in OBP. This one comes down to defense at the hot corner, where Fryman has made just 13 errors to Brosius' 22. Edge: Cleveland

Shortstop: Omar Vizquel (.730) vs. Derek Jeter (.865)
Defensively, Vizquel is the best in the business, but Jeter more than makes up the difference with his above-average bat. Edge: New York

Left Field: Dave Justice (.839) vs. Shane Spencer (1.321)
Justice played DH much of the season, but anyone who watched game four against the Red Sox can tell you he hasn't lost a step in the outfield, and has an above-average arm. He also has a ton of big-game experience, both with Cleveland and Atlanta. Don't be swayed by Spencer's OPS, which came in just 67 at-bats this season. Edge: Cleveland

Center Field: Kenny Lofton (.784) vs. Bernie Williams (.997)
As Cleveland's leadoff man, Lofton's job is to get on base, which he did this season to the tune of a .371 OBP. He doesn't hit for power, however. Williams gets the nod in that he both hits for power and gets on base at a good clip. Both are very good defensive center fielders. Edge: New York

Right Field: Manny Ramirez (.976) vs. Paul O'Neill (.882)
Ramirez continued his home run tear with two more blasts off Red Sox pitching in the ALDS, and is one of the most explosive players in the game today. O'Neill is solid, not spectacular, and can't compare with Ramirez at the plate or in the field. Edge: Cleveland

Designated Hitter: Brian Giles (.856) vs. Chili Davis (.820)
This one is up for debate, as numerous players may wind up filling this role depending on the pitching matchup. Cleveland could also go with Sexon, Justice or Thome, while the Yankees will choose between Davis, Tim Raines (.778) and Chad Curtis (.715). Regardless of who ends up there, the Indians have a better collection of hitters than do the Yankees. Edge: Cleveland

Bench:
Cleveland has two good young players in Sexon and rookie infielder Enrique Wilson (.812), who can fill in at both 2B and SS, along with veteran OF Mark Whiten (.797), who still has some pop in his bat, not to mention a cannon arm in the outfield. New York's bench consists of Curtis, Raines, and young 2b Homer Bush (.886), who runs very well and is Joe Torre's favorite pinch-runner. The Yankees will probably use their bench more than the Indians, although there's no real edge here either way. Edge: Even

Starting Rotation:
As we saw in the Division Series, the Yankees have very good starters in David Wells (3.49 ERA), David Cone (3.55), and Andy Pettitte (4.24). Orlando Hernandez (3.13), who has very good stuff, will get a start in this ALCS as well. With the exception of Hernandez, all have extensive postseason experience, and know how to win.

Cleveland's staff is something of a mystery. You never know what you're going to get from the two youngsters, Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright, who are awesome when on their game but often get knocked out early. Charles Nagy had a rough year, but seems to pitch well in big games. Then there's Doc Gooden, whos hot temper got him ejected from Game 2 of the ALDS. There are just too many question marks here. Edge: New York

Bullpen:
New York won't need much help from their bullpen if their starters can pitch like they did against the Rangers, and they've got Mariano Rivera to shut the door in the ninth. Cleveland, on the other hand, will have to rely on their pen because their starters tend not to pitch deep into the game, with the exception of Nagy.

Fortunately for the Tribe, their pen is very good. Dave Burba, normally a starter, gives them a good long man, while the experienced Paul Assenmacher excels in one-batter situations against lefties. Paul Shuey is the primary setup man, holding opposing batters to a .294 OBP with runners on. That leads to Mike Jackson, Cleveland's unheralded closer, who is one of the best in the game. Jackson saved 40 of 45 this season, and held opposing batters to an anemic .252 OBP, .213 with runners in scoring position. Edge: Cleveland

Prediction: New York, four games to two
Despite their potent offense and slightly superior bullpen, the Indians just can't hang with the Yankees in the starting pitching department. Cleveland needs everything to go their way in order to win this series, while the Yankees seem to be playing their best ball of the season.