The Team to Beat: Houston

Jason Michael Barker

At the All-Star break, I considered there to be three "elite teams" in baseball -- Atlanta, San Diego, and (of course) the Yankees. New York had an incredible first half, and looked like a lock to represent the American League in the World Series this October. Things weren't quite so clear in the National League, but you could make a good argument for either the Padres or the Braves without looking stupid.

Pre-All-Star Break
Yankees	60-19
Braves	59-28
Padres	57-31
Astros	53-34

Nobody, myself included, really took the Houston Astros seriously as World Series contenders, despite their potent lineup and solid pitching. They were a good team, but seemed to be lacking that special something neccessary to put them over the top. Enter Randy Johnson. Since Houston acquired the Big Unit on July 31, they've gone 33-13, including an awesome 22-7 in August. Johnson himself is 9-1 with a 1.29 ERA since joining the Astros, including four shutouts and 98 strikeouts in just 77 innings.

All this winning has pushed the 'Stros up in the NL standings, to the point where they're threatening for the best record in the league, despite having trailed the Braves by six games at the break. Should they finish with the best record in the NL, the Astros (53-25 at home this season) would assure themselves of home-field advantage in the Division Series and NLCS. (The AL champion has World Series home-field advantage this year.)

Yet the Astros' winning ways are just half the story. While Houston has been winning, Atlanta, New York and San Diego have been struggling, figuratively speaking. All four teams played well during August, but September has been another story entirely, with both NY and San Diego below .500 for the month, and Atlanta just 9-8. Meanwhile the Astros have gone 11-6, passing the Padres and gaining ground on the Braves.

September
Astros	11-6
Braves	9-8
Yankees	8-9
Padres	6-11

Some might argue that Atlanta, New York and San Diego have known for some time that they were going to win their respective divisions, and that some letdown should be expected. Of course I'd argue right back that Houston is in the same situation, and yet instead of letting down, the Astros are picking up steam. In case the month of September isn't a large enough sample to convince you, we'll take a look at each of the four teams over their last 30 games.

Last 30 Days
Astros	22-8
Braves	16-14
Padres	14-16
Yankees	14-16

While the Padres have reeled off 22 wins in their past 30, the other three clubs have struggled to play .500 ball, not exactly the direction you want to be going as you head into the playoffs. You hear all the time about how good teams can "turn it on" when it counts, i.e. in the postseason. I personally don't believe this, with the exception of Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls. One guy (Jordan) may be able to "turn it on" when he needs to, but baseball is too much a team sport for one hot player to make that much of a difference in a seven-game series.

You think the Braves aren't worried? After a recent 2-8 skid, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones called the first players-only meeting of the year to discuss a perceived lack of intensity. To make things worse, the normally reliable Greg Maddux is just 3-4 since July, with an ERA of 4.18 in August and September. He's also given up seven home runs during that stretch, more than he allowed during the first four months of the season combined.

Things aren't much better in New York, where their formerly abundant starting pitching seems to be at a premium. Andy Pettitte is 3-4 with a 6.66 ERA in eight August-September starts, and David Cone has just one win and a 4.70 ERA in his last five. Hideki Irabu has pitched so poorly in the second half (6-6, 5.66) that he may be left off the postseason roster, leaving David Wells, the struggling Cone and Pettite, and unproven Orlando Hernandez to make up the rotation. Add in a shaky bullpen and the Yankees might be vulnerable in a seven-game series.

Finally we come to the Padres, who have just five wins in their past 16 games. Second sacker Quilvio Veras and right fielder Tony Gwynn have both missed time this season to nagging injuries, the latter currently out with a bum hand. Meanwhile, Andy Ashby has struggled of late after a brilliant first half (11-5, 2.88), giving up 28 runs in his past five starts. Ashby has thrown 214 innings so far this season, the most ever in his career, and may just be suffering from fatigue.

Current
Yankees	105-45
Braves	99-55
Astros	97-57
Padres	95-60

Houston is red hot right now, while the former "Big Three" are going in the wrong direction. What does it all mean? Not a whole heck of a lot right now, but we'll see what happens in the post-season. Just don't be surprised if the Astros keep their current momentum going and win the whole thing.

 

about the author

Jason Michael Barker would like it known that Ken Griffey Jr. of the Seattle Mariners is having yet another fine season, although it's been lost in the Sosa-McGwire-Maris hype. Offer to play the world's tiniest violin at jmb@strikethree.com.