AL MVP: Big Muddle

Dave Paisley

While the NL MVP is at best a two-horse race, the AL picture is still very muddy. Juan Gonzalez has faded down the stretch like lettuce in the Texas sun. Ken Griffey Jr. is playing on a last-place team. You'd need a telescope to see how perennial MVP candidate Frank Thomas is doing these days. So what's the deal? Maybe only a look at the numbers can tell us.

MVPs are typically chosen from among the leaders in the triple crown categories: average, home runs and RBI. I've taken the top five in each category and compiled the following list. Some players rank at the top of more than one category, leaving us with only ten, so I've added Nomar Garciaparra, who just finished out of the top five in average.

In addition to the triple crown stats, there's room for runs scored and OPS (On base percentage Plus Slugging average) and the list is sorted by descending order of OPS. The final column shows where each player ranks in the triple crown categories.
 

Player	POS	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	OPS	Categories Led
Albert Belle	OF	551	.318	45	132	102	1.033	2 HR, 2 RBI
Bernie Williams	OF	446	.341	24	91	92	1.014	1 AVG
Mo Vaughn	1B	538	.333	35	97	98	.987	2 AVG
Juan Gonzalez	OF	545	.316	41	149	98	.987	5 HR, 1 RBI
Ken Griffey, Jr.	OF	575	.287	50	126	109	.980	1 HR, 3 RBI
Eric Davis	OF	407	.324	27	78	77	.977	5 AVG
Rafael Palmeiro	1B	567	.296	42	116	92	.956	3 HR, 5 RBI
Manny Ramirez	OF	521	.296	36	122	95	.951	4 RBI
Nomar Garciaparra	SS	540	.322	31	111	97	.942
Derek Jeter	SS	563	.329	19	77	118	.880	3 AVG
Ivan Rodriguez	C	526	.327	17	81	78	.875	4 AVG
Jose Canseco	OF	520	.240	42	99	92	.859	4 HR

Albert Belle for MVP? I don't think so. His numbers say yes, but he plays on a team that's been out of playoff contention since early April, and nobody likes him, particularly the BBWAA. So scratch that idea.

Next up we have Bernie Williams. Bernie plays on the best team in the universe right now, and is unfortunately obscured by the great team year that the Yankees are having. In any fair world, he's probably the MVP, and that may still come to pass. His nearest contenders are the the last three years' MVPs - Vaughn, Gonzalez and Griffey. I don't see how Williams gets beaten by Vaughn, I think Gonzalez' train has left the station without him, and Griffey plays on a last-place team. After that, the pickings get fairly slim.

If the voters get carried away with shortstop hype, there's an outside chance that Garciaparra could sneak in, but that's a tremendous long shot. Jeter wouldn't beat out Williams or Garciaparra, and I-Rod and and Canseco are just way too far out of the running.

With fatal flaws for Gonzalez and Griffey, and Vaughn not being terribly high profile, I really don't see that, despite lacking homer and RBI numbers, the voters have much choice but to anoint Bernie. Think of the kind of money his agent will be dreaming about then...

 

about the author

We've secretly switched the regular coffee in Dave Paisley's kitchen with Folger's Crystals. That must be him smashing the office windows with a Mark McGwire-model bat now. Send Starbucks fast at drdjp@strikethree.com.