Blue Jays Bustin' Out, Eh?

Jason Michael Barker

Don't look now, but the Toronto Blue Jays are just four games behind the Red Sox in the American League wild card race. Jays' fans are starting to mention the playoffs, however quietly, at the risk of jinxing the whole affair. Meanwhile, the Boston faithful are beginning to worry about a collapse on the order of 1978, when the Sox led the Yankees by 14 games on July 20, fell three games behind, then won 6 of their last 8 only to lose a one-game playoff to New York.

Unless you've been following the standings closely, it probably comes as something of a surprise that Toronto has come as close as they have. It seems like only a month ago the Sox were sitting pretty, with nothing to fear but the remnants of an empty charge by the Baltimore Orioles. Turns out it was even less than a month ago - on August 27, the Sox led Toronto by 12.5 games. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

When the July 31 trading deadline rolled around, the Blue Jays were 54-56 and GM Gord Ash was looking to cut salary in an attempt to salvage a lost season. Ash dealt away veterans Mike Stanley, Juan Guzman, Tony Phillips and Ed Sprague before the deadline, then unloaded disappointing closer Randy Myers shortly after. Most fans had already written the season off, and the moves did nothing to change that.

The "new look" Blue Jays won 17 of 27 in August - a pleasant surprise, but nothing to write home about. If anything, their improved play seemed a solid way to build momentum going into 1999. Yet the Jays were out to prove it was much more than that, as they won 11 straight beginning August 27, including a four-game sweep of the Red Sox the first week of September, then following that up by winning three of four in New York.

Two young players who have contributed a great deal to the Jays recent winning ways, Jose Cruz Jr. and Kelvim Escobar, have followed remarkably similar paths in 1998, struggling early in the year only to bounce back down the stretch.

Cruz, who spent nearly two months in the minors trying to regain his stroke after struggling through April and May, came back with a vengeance in August, hitting .444/.644 (OBP/SLG) with five home runs and 15 walks. Since taking over the fifth spot in the batting order on August 1, Cruz has gone .411/.557 with seven home runs in 149 at-bats, finally living up to the high expectations placed upon him since joining the Jays last August.

While Cruz was picking up the offense and giving Toronto a solid presence in the lineup to follow Carlos Delgado, Escobar stepped into the starting rotation to replace the departed Juan Guzman and performed better than anyone could have expected. After saving 14 of 17 last season and being heralded Toronto's "closer of the future," Escobar was relegated to setup duty this year with the free agent acquisition of Randy Myers. April and May proved unkind, as Escobar allowed 15 earned runs in just 10.2 innings, and his struggles prompted a trip to the minors and a return to starting pitching, which had been his role earlier in his career.

In what can only be called a 180-degree turnaround, the young Venezuelan has pitched brilliantly since his August 1 recall. In eight starts, he's 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA over 57.0 innings. He's allowed just one home run over than span, after allowing three in his earlier 10.2 relief innings.

Despite trailing the Sox by four games with just 11 to play, the Jays have a chance (albeit slim) to make things interesting. They have five games against the Tigers (57-93) and three with the Devil Rays (58-90). Three home games versus the Orioles (77-72) round out the season. If they can manage to win six of eight against the Tigers and D'Rays and take two of three from the O's, they'd finish 89-73, needing the Sox to go 5-8 to force a tie.

Sure, it's far-fetched, but the Sox have a history of collapsing late in the year, and have struggled lately to the tune of just three wins in their last 12. And if things do end up in a tie, the Blue Jays would have home field advantage in a potential one-game playoff.

Even if the Jays do fall short in 1998, they have something solid to build on for next season, based on the contributions of a bounty of promising young players including Cruz and Escobar, not to mention Shannon Stewart, Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, and Chris Carpenter.

 

about the author

Jason Michael Barker hopes that one day he'll be able to glue two pieces of green wood together in the shape of a potato, or perhaps several spudz. Wouldn't that be spooky? It's an inside joke, but one he just might share if you send bribes to jmb@strikethree.com.