Cy, Cy Again

Dave Paisley

Having examined the American League Cy Young scene last week, let's now take a look at the NL. (Oh, and speaking of the AL, if the Blue Jays manage to overtake the Red Sox, the AL Cy is surely a lock for Roger.)

Repeating the Cy Young criteria from last week, or at least the way the BBWAA seems to think:

    1. Finish at or very near the top of the league in wins.
    2. If you're the only guy at or above 20, you win.
    3. Pitch for a playoff-bound team.
    4. In the event you haven't won by virtue of rule 2, have the best ERA.

Let's now look at the contenders. Pitchers are listed this time by OPS against, with Randy Johnson thrown in as a wild card.

Pitcher	W	L	OPS	IP	WHIP	RS	RA	RS-RSav
Maddux	17	8	.557	232.2	.954	5.11	2.67	-.46
Johnson	7	1	.488	63.0	.889	4.57	1.00	-1.00
Brown	18	5	.588	227.0	1.106	5.04	2.66	-.53
Glavine	18	6	.625	209.1	1.199	5.46	2.79	-.11
Smoltz	14	3	.648	149.2	1.163	5.71	3.37	.14
Reed	16	9	.695	195.0	1.092	4.43	3.32	-1.14
Ashby	16	8	.704	214.0	1.234	4.71	3.57	-.86
Lima	15	7	.700	213.1	1.120	6.20	3.75	.63
Reynolds	17	8	.765	204.1	1.356	7.14	4.18	1.57
Neagle	14	11	.717	202.1	1.236	6.18	4.05	.61
Millwood	14	8	.713	155.0	1.310	5.71	4.75	.14
Tapani	17	7	.784	191.0	1.387	6.55	4.00	.98
Averages	15.3	6.8	.665	188.1	1.170	5.57	3.34	.00

 
OPS - On-Base percentage Plus Slugging.
WHIP - Walks plus Hits given up per Inning Pitched.
RS - Run Support from the pitcher's own team.
RA - Runs Allowed (like ERA, but includes unearned runs).
RS-RSav - Run Support minus the Run Support average of this group.

It sure looks like Greg Maddux has this wrapped up from a statistical point of view. With his recent slide, however, Kevin Brown is right with him and may well end up with a significantly better winning percentage. The exposure of winning the World Series last year, plus the fact that he's seen as a deserving candidate who hasn't won it yet may also count in his favor. It wouldn't break my heart to see him win it.

Randy Johnson poses the biggest "what if?" of the season. It's pretty obvious by now that he's a high maintenance flake, who with the right motivation can move mountains. Right now, he looks like he could carry the Astros to the World Series. He outpitched Maddux in a Braves-Astros showdown on September 2, and has probably set the NL world thinking about Maddux' post-season vulnerability again. Add his AL stats from the Mariners and he's 16-11 with an outside shot at 20 wins. Cy Young? No, but fabulous NL numbers.

Interestingly enough, if Maddux didn't win the CY, then Tom Glavine would be a leading candidate if he played for another team. However, the way BBWAA voters think, he isn't the best pitcher on the Braves, so how can they vote for him over Maddux? Weird, but that's the kind of logic that cost Alex Rodriguez his well-deserved MVP in '96.

John Smoltz has, of course, lost too much time to injury to contend, but great numbers nevertheless.

Right after him is Rick Reed, who is unfortunate enough to pitch for the punchless Mets. With more than a whole run less support than the group average, he still has 16 wins and a stellar WHIP, based primarily on great control. With average run support, he could be leading the league in wins and be a front-runner.

Andy Ashby is also the victim of poor run support, but is also a non-contender based on the "not the best pitcher on his team" argument. Jose Lima is in much the same position as his AL counterpart, Bartolo Colon. Good numbers, great promise, but it's not enough to get past the ruling elite for this award. It would be a feather in his cap to finish among the top five in voting, though.

After that, we get to Shane "Mr. Lucky" Reynolds, with fantastic run support leading to a great record. A good pitcher, but he ain't no Randy Johnson. To his credit, he's humble enough to admit that. Throw in a Neagle and a Millwood (see Glavine, Tom) and a good and lucky Kevin Tapani, and you've probably exhausted the list of candidates for this year. Relievers? Forget them, there are too many great starters to have to resort to the bullpen.

So, I see the odds as:

49% Maddux
49% Brown
2% Glavine

Note that this does not constitute an endorsement of illegal gambling, nor do I encourage you to wager money, even legally, on the outcome of so capricious an award. Don't say you weren't warned.

 

about the author

Dave Paisley is back from an all-nighter at the Caesars Palace sports book, which ended only when informed that he couldn't bet on the taped highlights. Give him odds on a Strawberry/Canseco dance at drdjp@strikethree.com.