Don't Cy for Me

Dave Paisley

With three weeks to go, the American League Cy Young race is still far from a foregone conclusion. There are four primary candidates, with a whole host of pretenders right behind them.

First, let's examine the psyche of the average Baseball Writers Association of America voter...there, that didn't take long, did it? But seriously, based on past history, the Cy Young requirements are:

1. Finish at or very near the top of the league in wins.
2. If you're the only guy at or above 20, you win.
3. Pitch for a playoff-bound team.
4. In the event you haven't won by virtue of Rule 2, have the best ERA.

With that in mind, let's look at the contenders. Our pitchers are listed in order of wins.

Pitcher	W	L	OPS	IP	WHIP	RS	RA	RS-RSav
Cone	18	4	.675	174.0	1.18	7.76	4.03	1.97
Martinez	18	4	.620	199.0	1.06	5.83	2.85	.04
Wells	17	2	.656	190.0	1.01	7.06	3.32	1.27
Clemens	17	6	.564	198.0	1.09	5.14	3.05	-.65
Sele	16	10	.759	182.2	1.49	6.60	5.22	.81
Helling	16	7	.750	183.2	1.35	6.27	4.85	.48
Wakefield	15	6	.734	188.1	1.34	7.17	4.87	1.38
Pettitte	15	8	.725	192.1	1.42	5.24	4.21	-.55
Colon	13	7	.681	187.0	1.34	5.97	3.61	.18
Saberhagen	12	6	.707	145.1	1.20	6.13	4.46	.34
Mussina	12	8	.653	169.1	1.10	5.90	3.61	.11
Rogers	12	7	.670	201.2	1.18	4.86	3.75	-.93
Arrojo	12	11	.728	181.0	1.27	3.73	3.73	-2.06
Irabu	11	7	.721	146.2	1.30	5.58	3.99	-.21
Thompson	10	12	.708	193.1	1.34	4.70	4.38	-1.09
Finley	10	6	.694	196.2	1.40	4.67	3.66	-1.12
					Average	5.79	3.97

OPS - On-Base percentage Plus Slugging.
WHIP - Walks plus Hits given up per Inning Pitched.
RS - Run Support from the pitcher's own team.
RA - Runs Allowed.
RS-RSav - Run Support minus the Run Support average of the entire group.

Cone, Martinez, Wells and Clemens are all fair bets to get to 20 wins, so that should separate them from the pack. We'll save them for later.

Working our way up from the bottom, Chuck Finley is working awfully hard to get nowhere with the Angels. High WHIP, good OPS. Justin Thompson plays for the Tigers. Nuff' said. Hideki Irabu has begun to return to normal. Rolando Arrojo - well, look at that run support. Ouch.

Kenny Rogers' numbers are shocking. With better run support this guy could be 15-4 or something and a serious candidate. Mike Mussina is having another great year, masked by the early futility of the Orioles. It's been a very tidy year for Bret Saberhagen - for his sake I hope his old odd-year curse doesn't come back to get him next season.

Bartolo Colon is one to watch for the future: WHIP a little high, but great promise for Cy races to come. Andy Pettitte gets no respect this year, despite the fact that the difference between him and the other Yankee pitchers is run support. Tim Wakefield constinues his Jekyll-and-Hyde career with a very Jekyll-like year. And the two Texas guys - what a joke. Great run support and a lot of luck.

Now on the top four. Cone and Wells both stand out for one reason: great run support. If the BBWAA is paying attention (excuse me while I laugh my ass off) then these guys should lose points relative to Clemens and Martinez. They've done some great pitching, but that run support has nothing to do with them. Of the two, I'd toss out Cone on the basis of allowing almost a run more per game than the other three.

Now we're down to Wells, Clemens and Martinez.

The case for Wells: only 2 losses; a perfect game (and close to another); lowest WHIP (and a really low walk total); name recognition; plays for the Yankees, who will finish with the best record in the league.

The case for Clemens: Lowest OPS allowed, second lowest runs allowed, lower run support than average, name recognition. Only major con is that he's not going to the playoffs.

The case for Martinez: Lowest runs allowed, second lowest OPS and WHIP, plays for playoff-bound Boston.

My vote? Pedro Martinez. I think it's between him and Clemens, and their numbers are really even. The deciding factor in the BBWAA voting will be the fact that Pedro is playoff-bound.

Dave Paisley can't understand why calculus isn't part of spring training. Tell him you think they practice it in Japan at drdjp@strikethree.com.