Never Mind the Wild Card - Here's the Beef

Dave Paisley

As this seemingly interminable season winds to a close, there seems to be very little to excite us down the stretch. One division title race and one wild card spot are all that's in doubt. Don't blame the wild card, though, because no matter how you slice and dice the divisions, this season would inevitably lack pennant chase drama.

So my interest has turned to the possible postseason matchups, and in the NL, there are some mighty tempting combinations. Never mind the wild card. No matter if it's the Mets, the Cubs or the Giants, the wild card team will just be cannon fodder for one of the big three division winners. The only drama in the wild card is that it will determine which pair of behemoths has to match up in the first round of the playoffs. With only four games separating the Braves, Astros and Padres, and the fact that the wild card could come from any division, the battle to avoid a quality first round opponent has been well and truly joined. 

Pity the poor Braves - they could end up with the best record in the NL, but if the wild card team is the Mets, then Atlanta would have to face the Padres rather than the much easier Mets. The permutations are endless. Well not really, but the fact remains that the NL champion may well have to beat the other two best teams in the league to make it through to the World Series.

Given the uncertainty of who may face who, I've prepared a three-way comparison of the top NL teams. First, let's look at offense. The following table is listed by batting order rather than position because, well, that's what I felt like doing. The primary measure of offensive quality I use is OPS (On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average). The average for all three players is in the column on the far right, and the difference (Diff) is that player's OPS relative to the average for all three players in that batting order slot.
 

Astros	OPS	Diff	Braves	OPS	Diff	Padres	OPS	Diff	Ave
Biggio	.906	.109	Weiss	.744	-.053	Veras	.740	-.057	.797
Bell	.834	.068	Williams, G.	.776	.010	Finley	.687	-.079	.766
Bagwell	.940	.005	Jones, C.	.965	.030	Caminiti	.901	-.034	.935
Alou	1.011	.006	Galarraga	1.012	.007	Vaughn	.991	-.014	1.005
Everett	.879	.011	Lopez	.890	.022	Joyner	.836	-.032	.868
Gutierrez	.689	-.058	Jones, A.	.830	.083	Sweeney	.723	-.024	.747
Ausmus	.718	-.096	Klesko	.829	.015	Leyritz	.894	.080	.814
Spiers	.746	.043	Graffanino/  Lockhart	.660	-.043	Gomez	.703	.000	.703
Average		.011			.009			-.020

 
The Astros' offense is best, with the Braves not far behind, while San Diego is really quite poor by comparison. The single player that beats his competition by the most is Craig Biggio, once again the best leadoff guy around. Derek Bell and Bill Spiers help to keep the Astros' offense above the rest.

Note that the number 3 and 4 hitters are all pretty formidable, with Chipper Jones and Andres Galarraga a notch above Jeff Bagwell and Moises Alou, while Ken Caminiti and Greg Vaughn, good as they are, are a ways behind. One bright spot for the Padres is Jim Leyritz, who bolsters the bottom end of the order quite a bit.

So count the offense even for the Astros and Braves, and a negative for the Padres.

On to starting rotations. Here I'm using WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) as my measure of choice. Remember now that positive difference numbers are bad.
 

Astros	WHIP	Diff	Braves	WHIP	Diff	Padres	WHIP	Diff	Ave
Johnson	.91	-.07	Maddux	.92	-.06	Brown	1.10	.12	.98
Reynolds	1.32	.08	Glavine	1.20	-.04	Ashby	1.21	-.04	1.24
Hampton	1.50	.09	Smoltz	1.24	-.16	Hamilton	1.48	.07	1.41
Lima	1.11	-.07	Neagle	1.22	.04	Hitchcock	1.21	. 03	1.18
Bergman	1.32	-.17	Millwood	1.29	-.20	Langston	1.85	.36	1.49
Average		-.03			-.08			. 11

 
Looking at number one starters, and using Randy Johnson's Houston numbers only, he and Maddux go head to head pretty well, with Kevin Brown off the pace. Tom Glavine and Andy Ashby tie with Shane Reynolds not far off at number two, while John Smoltz wipes the floor with the other two at the three slot.

Next in the order, Jose Lima tilts things back a little to the Astros, while Sean Bergman and Kevin Millwood easily beat out nasty looking numbers from Mark Langston in the number five slot. Of course, the fifth starters won't be used as starters in the playoffs, but it does give a measure of depth in case of injury. Give the starting pitching nod to the Braves, with the Astros only a smidge behind, while the Padres, surprisingly, bring up the rear again.

And so on to the bullpen...
 

Astros	WHIP	Diff	Braves	WHIP	Diff	Padres	WHIP	Diff	Ave
Wagner	1.16	.13	Ligtenberg	1.05	.03	Hoffman	.86	-.16	1.02
Henry	1.24	-.02	Rocker	1.17	-.10	Myers	1.39	.12	1.27
Miller	1.41	.21	Seanez	1.03	-.17	Wall	1.16	-.04	1.20
Average		.11			-.08			-.03

 
As closers go, Trevor Hoffman has no equal in this company. Kerry Ligtenberg has decent numbers right now, but is beginning to show that classic Braves bullpenitis as we hit the stretch. Billy Wagner's numbers are impressive enough, just not compared to Hoffman.

As for the setup guys, Rocker and Seanez have great numbers for Atlanta, but do I believe they and Ligtenberg will get the job done when the chips are down? Hell, no. Give me either of the other two pens, despite the numbers. The Padres' pen looks pretty good, especially looking at Myers' numbers while he's been in San Diego.

Unfortunately, the Padres' pen won't be enough to see them over the top against the other two teams. Still, if they finish worse than Atlanta and the wild card team is the Mets, they can feast on NY while the Braves and the Astros slug it out. Maybe the Padres can pick off a weary survivor.

Under any other scenario, Atlanta and Houston probably meet in the NLCS. Looks pretty good from here.

Dave Paisley was last seen talking to a wino about Albert Belle's MVP snubs. Beg Dave not to drink the Thunderbird at drdjp@strikethree.com.