Career CPR: A Case Study

Dave Paisley

On the evening of August 27, 1998, Jamie Moyer reached two modest career milestones. He earned his 100th win while striking out his 1000th victim (David Bell of the Indians, for those scoring at home).

Does this ensure enshrinement in the Hall of Fame? Of course not. However, it's nice every once in a while to see one of the journeymen of the baseball world make good.

At age 35, Moyer has spent the last five years developing into one of the best number-two starters in the majors. In fact, he's been one for a while, but the recognition is finally arriving, even from the people who can't believe a slow-throwing rag-armed lefty can actually be this good.

Moyer is a very likable, knowledgeable pitcher with as little swagger as you can possibly imagine. Actually, it's tough to swagger when your fastball tops out at about 82 mph. However, Moyer lives on off-speed stuff. Actually, it's off-speed, off-off-speed, and once in a while, off-off-off-speed stuff.

Moyer's career is really a two-parter, with a major revelation in the middle while mired in the Tigers' AAA organization in 1992. Check out Jamie's numbers from 1986, when he broke in with the Cubs, through to 1991, when he stayed up briefly with the Cards but was demoted quickly to the minors after going a quick 0-5.

His WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) numbers tell the story best. He had a lucky debut in '86, giving up lots of hits and walks but managing to eke out a 7-4 record. That earned him a spot the next year, where he improved a bit in the hits department and managed to win 12 games. '88 was his finest year as a Cub, but he just couldn't buy a win, ending the year 9-5. During the next two seasons with Texas, Moyer transitioned to the role of reliever and proved to be thoroughly mediocre. Then came the ugly start to '91 with the Cards, followed by almost two years in AAA purgatory. Somewhere down there, Jamie learned how to be a better pitcher, and his method was simple: don't walk guys.
 

Year	IP	H	BB	K	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	K/9	W	L
1986	87.1	107	42	45	1.71	11.0	4.33	4.64	7	4
1987	201.0	210	97	147	1.53	9.4	4.34	6.58	12	15
1988	202.0	212	55	121	1.32	9.5	2.46	5.39	9	5
1989	76.0	84	33	44	1.54	10.0	3.91	5.21	4	9
1990	102.1	115	39	58	1.50	10.1	3.43	5.10	2	6
1991	31.1	38	16	20	1.72	10.9	4.60	5.74	0	5
Total 86-91	700.0	766	282	435	1.50	9.9	3.63	5.59	34	54
1993	152.0	154	38	90	1.26	9.1	2.25	5.33	12	9
1994	149.0	158	38	87	1.32	9.5	2.30	5.26	5	7
1995	115.2	117	30	65	1.27	9.1	2.33	5.06	8	6
1996	160.2	117	46	79	1.39	9.9	2.58	4.43	13	3
1997	188.2	187	43	113	1.22	8.9	2.05	5.39	17	5
1998	199.0	203	38	131	1.21	9.2	1.72	5.92	11	8
Total 93-98	965.0	996	233	565	1.27	9.3	2.17	5.27	66	38
Career	1665.0	1762	515	1000	1.37	9.5	2.78	5.41	100	92

 
Moyer's turnaround in walks is remarkable, and it is the only significant change in Jamie's numbers between the ugly '86-'91 and the sublime '93-'98. His walk rate in every year since 1993 has been lower than all but his best prior to the interruption, and Moyer has averaged about two and a half walks less per nine innings after 1991. That's less than half of what it was during the first six seasons. Amazing.

Given his current age and relative durability, Moyer could easily pitch for the next five years and rack up 15 or so wins on average on a good team. He could end his career with about 175 wins and a lot more money, which would be a nice little bonus. These aren't exactly Hall of Fame numbers, but baseball isn't always about the Hall of Fame, or who is the all-time best. More often, it's about the Jamie Moyers of the world, who figure out how to be a better player and work hard at it.

Sure, it's nice to watch the Randy Johnsons of the world with their 99-MPH heaters, but it's also fun to see guys swinging and missing badly at 60-MPH changeups.
 
Dave Paisley can't remember the last time he had good ballpark nachos. Suggest switching to the pizza at drdjp@strikethree.com.