Pitching (and No Drugs)

Dave Paisley

Tired of reading about testosterone-laden Big Macs? So am I, so welcome to Dave's drug-free zone, where we'll review nothing more contentious than major league pitching.

This is the flip side to the offensive analysis I undertook last week. This analysis takes a look at the raw measure of pitching, to see how well each team prevents that raw measure from turning into runs allowed. For pitching, I like to use walks plus hits per nine innings pitched (let's call it WHIP9) rather than OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging average) given up, as the former is much more readily available.

Comparing that with runs allowed (including unearned runs) per nine innings pitched shows a remarkably strong correlation. The green line in the graph is the linear regression line through the data. Variations above or below the line can be considered to be due to skill or luck. If a team somehow can minimize the runs given up per hit or walk, then it may be defensive skill or just blind luck. By the same token, teams that seem to give up more than their fair share may be defensively inept or just plain unlucky.

The variation can also be due to factors such as how many extra-base hits a team gives up, as WHIP9 doesn't differentiate between a home run and a single in the hit department. However, Atlanta excels at giving up the fewest homers, while Kansas City gives up close to the most, yet both teams are extremely close to the line. Perhaps it is just random chance.

Note also the hefty league difference due to the DH.

No surprise - the Braves, Yankees, Mets, Padres and Astros are all keeping company at the bottom of the chart. Most of those parks are pitching-friendly anyway, which only augments the excellent staffs to be found on those clubs. In particular, Houston, San Diego and the Mets have found a way to give up even fewer runs than their hits and walks would indicate.

The surprisingly good Pirates follow, despite a recently hitter-friendly park, and the Dodgers, who are always down there due to the extreme pitching bias of Dodger Stadium. (Question: will the alleged new Dodger Stadium be as pitcher-friendly?)

Other sterling performances include the Red Sox and Giants, while the Indians, Angels and Devil Rays are all about average at giving up hits and walks, but managing to minimize the damage on the scoreboard.

At the other end of the scale we have the woeful Marlins and White Sox battling it out for the title of worst on the chart. The Marlins lead in walks and hits, but the Sox lead in runs given up. Both parks are (wait for it...) pitcher-friendly, so these guys are working really hard to be this bad. As woeful as Seattle has been, take a look at Texas (shade your eyes first, though). How any team with pitching this bad can still be in a division race is beyond me. Other notables (notably bad, that is) are Arizona, Oakland and Philadelphia. The Phillies perhaps even more so, because they get so many innings from Curt Schilling that the rest must be trying extra hard to make up the difference.

If I didn't mention your favorite team, well, they're buried in that blob in the middle somewhere.

Dave Paisley isn't Peter Gammons, but he plays him on TV. Elucidate your surprise in discovering that the real Gammons is a bald dwarf at drdjp@strikethree.com.