Offensive? You bet!

Dave Paisley

With about three quarters of the season gone, we can reasonably start to evaluate season stats for teams, so I thought I'd take a look at offensive production around the majors.

There are two major stepping stones to run scoring. First we have the offense, hits and walks, as measured by On-Base Percentage and Slugging Average. Add the two together and you get what we call OPS. These two raw indicators of offense are then turned into runs in some fashion, and some teams do a better job of it than others. You may attribute this to luck, clutch hitting, or the random proclamation of a tender-hearted fairy. Whichever you choose, it's interesting to see who is good and bad, lucky and unlucky.

The following graph illustrates what I've been blathering about. Each team is represented by a red diamond, with its name in close proximity. The vertical scale is runs per plate appearance (plate appearances is simplified here to be just at bats plus walks) plotted against OPS, the independent variable along the horizontal axis.

The green line is the linear regression line, i.e. the best straight line fit through the data points. The line can be thought of as the best indicator of how a team with average luck or "clutch" hitting would score with a given OPS. Any team significantly above the line is either lucky or "clutch", while those significantly below are unlucky or "chokers".

Right away, it's easy to see the greatly increased scoring in the American League. Given that almost 10% of the ABs in the NL are by pitchers instead of designated hitters, the drop-off of approximately 5% in OPS is about right. Remember, not even pitchers have zero OPS.

That said, any team significantly above the line is making a lot more runs out of their raw offense than average, while teams way below the line are squandering scoring opportunities galore. And before we get into individual teams, note that the effects of home park are somewhat evident. Far and away, the best hitter's park is Coors, and we indeed see that the Rockies are way up in team OPS while the Dodgers, who play in the best pitcher's park, are way the heck down there at .700 OPS.

Is anyone surprised that not only are the Yankees one of the best teams in MLB at hitting this year, but they're one of the best at making the most of that offense. Luck or "clutch hitting", you make the call. Just remember you can't call the Yankees "clutch" while calling the Rangers lucky. The only other notably better-than-average teams are Houston, good and lucky,  and Oakland, in the bottom half in OPS but 9th in run scoring. Call them mediocre and lucky. Even with that amount of luck they haven't really done anything. If the law of averages bites next year, look for a real stinker.

On the unlucky, or "choke" side of the line, the most obvious bust is Seattle. They're one of the best in OPS, but unable to make the most of it. Still, they're the sixth-best scoring offense. Shame about their pitching.

Running down the line, we see the Orioles, Rockies, Cardinals and Tigers all underperforming, while the Devil Rays seem to be intent on defining the very essence of offensive ineptitude, underperforming the line by a whopping 10%.

On a general note, is anyone shocked that the Twins, Tigers and Royals compose the very dregs of AL offense? Or that the Pirates, Marlins, Expos, Diamondbacks and Devil Rays have the same honor in the NL?

I thought not.

Get in your car. Drive to the record store and buy Pink Floyd's Animals on tape. Get back in the car, and while playing the tape, drive to Seattle. Go to the top of the highest hill, park the car, enter the bar on your left, and loudly say, "Wade Boggs for President!" The one laughing the loudest will be Dave Paisley. Or, save all that embarrassment by writing him at drdjp@strikethree.com.