Mega Mariner Make-Over?

Jason Michael Barker

For fans of the Seattle Mariners, baseball next season will be vastly different than what they've become accustomed to over the past few years. There will be changes on the field, there may be changes off the field - and even the field itself is changing. What sort of team will show up when the M's move into Safeco Field next July? Ken Griffey, Jr. will be in center field; Alex Rodriguez will be at shortstop. Beyond that, nothing is certain.

Infield
Rest assured, SS Alex Rodriguez will be back. The club owns an option on 1B David Segui, an option they'd be wise to pick up. A $2.25M contract is a bargain for his near-.900 OPS, and defensively he's the best in the league, an important factor given the M's infield defense. A free agent at the end of the season, fan-favorite 2B Joey Cora doesn't think he'll be back next year. After the trade of Randy Johnson, in which the Mariners acquired heir-apparent Carlos Guillen, Cora cleaned out his locker, and in recent weeks he has told the press he's considering retirement. The job will probably be Guillen's to lose come spring training, but the strong-armed former shortstop has little experience above double-A. A September call-up will let the club see where he is both at the plate and in the field. Finally, some sort of decision will have to be made about 3B Russ Davis, he of 28 errors in just 103 games at the hot corner. It will probably come down to whether or not Lou Piniella feels comfortable with Davis starting 1999 at third. If he doesn't, look for Davis to be traded for pitching help, as he isn't cut out for a bench role. Robin Ventura and Ken Caminiti are both free agents at the end of the season, and either one would fit well with the M's. Perhaps the attraction of the new stadium will be enough to lure one to Seattle.

Outfield
You already know about Ken Griffey Jr. in CF, and RF Jay Buhner has said he wants to finish his career with the Mariners in their new park. Both are under contract for next season. That brings us to the revolving door that is left field. Since Griffey debuted with the M's in 1989, he's played alongside 59(!) different left fielders, from Jeffrey Leonard to Vince Coleman to Glenallen Hill. Shane Monahan, number 59, is the current starter, but although he runs well and has played good defense, he provides little with the stick other than an occasional bunt base hit. Perennial prospect Raul Ibanez has a much better bat than Monahan, but isn't as good afield. The M's may elect to go the free agent route (again).

Catcher
All-Star C Dan Wilson is expected to return from a serious ankle injury in the next two weeks, and he's been sorely missed. Often called the most overrated Mariner, fans have realized how valuable he really is while he's been out. Backups John Marzano and Joe Oliver are just that, and don't hit nearly enough to be regular receivers. The reliable Wilson will be the starter next season, but something must be done long-term. There isn't anyone in the minors, so Seattle must find a young catcher somewhere who will be ready to start in two years. Unfortunately, the M's kept John Marzano and traded Chris Widger and Jason Varitek, in whom they'd at least have had a younger backup.

Designated Hitter
This may sound silly, but there was actually talk about trading hitter extraordinaire Edgar Martinez before the trading deadline. His detractors will whine about how his batting average has dropped to just .302 after being over .325 each of the past three seasons, but those crazy folks don't understand OBP, and Edgar's second in the league to Jim Thome in perhaps the most important offensive statistic. The other crazy talk around Seattle is that the M's might not pick up Edgar's 1999 option, which would be a huge mistake. Yes, his numbers are down this season, but primarily due to a slow start. Throw out April ("just" a .373 OBP) and you've got a typical Edgar Martinez season. I don't know who the Mariners think they'll be able to get at such a price ($3.5M) who can possibly replace his offense.

Starting Pitching
The starting rotation currently consists of Jeff Fassero, Jamie Moyer, Bill Swift, Ken Cloude, and Paul Spoljaric. Signed through next season, both Fassero and Moyer are locks for the rotation, but they'll each be 36 years of age. Cloude, just 23, would be #3 in the rotation, and I still expect him to take a big step forward next year. Despite his 10 wins, Swift has been hit very hard this season, including 17 home runs (keep in mind he's a ground ball pitcher), and I don't expect him to be retained. Spoljaric, thrown into the rotation following the Randy Johnson trade, is probably better suited for the bullpen.

What's in store for next season? A top three of Fassero, Moyer, and Cloude. But if the M's want to make a serious run next season, they'll need to acquire another decent starting pitcher, either via trade or free agency. Possible trade bait might include Russ Davis. This could prove to be crucial if one of the big three suffer an injury. For the fifth spot in the rotation, I expect Jose Paniagua to get a serious look in spring training. A former Expo prospect, Paniagua appeared in 13 games (11 starts) for Montreal back in 1996 at age 22, going 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He was taken by Tampa Bay in the expansion draft, then claimed off of waivers by the Mariners back in March. He's pitched very well for AAA Tacoma this season, and was just called up to the bigs.

In the long run, the Mariners must get younger in their rotation, given the age of Fassero and Moyer, as other than Cloude the young help won't be ready next season. Freddy Garcia, part of the Randy Johnson trade, has wonderful potential but needs more seasoning at AAA. He'll probably be rushed to the majors just as Cloude was, thus delaying his development. Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson are the M's best pitching prospects in the low minors, but are pitching in high-A ball this season, and they're at least two seasons away from contributing.

Bullpen
It's conceivable that not a single member of the current relief corps will be back next season. High-priced Heathcliff Slocumb and Bobby Ayala will almost certainly not be retained, nor will long man Bob Wells, who's been used sparingly this season. Mike Timlin, the only bright spot in the M's pen, will be a free agent coming off of a great season and will almost certainly demand a big contract. Of course, management didn't hesitate to spend on Slocumb, so it's possible Timlin will be back. Left-hander Greg McCarthy has good stuff but poor control, and isn't a favorite of the temperamental Piniella. Spoljaric is under contract for next season, although it remains to be seen if he'll pitch in the rotation or out of the pen.

1999 Outlook
It's entirely possible that the Mariners could enter next season with four new position players (LF, 3B, 2B, 1B), a new DH, two new starting pitchers, and an entirely new bullpen. It probably won't be quite so drastic (I expect both Segui and Martinez to have their options picked up), but casual Mariner fans shouldn't be surprised if they show up for the first game at new Safeco Field and don't recognize half the team.

Some people get tons of email in their inbox everyday, full of interesting information and constructive comments. Jason Michael Barker isn't one of those people. It would make his day if you'd drop him a line at jmb@strikethree.com and let him know what you think about all these words he throws down on virtual paper twice a week.

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