Prospect or Suspect?

Dave Paisley

A quiet story currently playing itself out in Atlanta is that of once-can't-miss prospect Andruw Jones. Touted as the best player since Griffey, scorching AA and AAA pitching in '96, belting World Series home runs at age 19, it seemed that he just couldn't miss. A genuine five-tools prospect, with the ability to take a walk once in while, his future seemed set.

However, a so-so '97 campaign followed by an equally mediocre '98 have taken the sheen off Jones. Touted as an excellent defensive outfielder, Jones has mostly backed up the hype, but is still prone to the bonehead play, where it seems as if his brain has somehow become disconnected.

Did all the hype get to him? Is he believing his press clippings and simply forgetting that trying hard is part of being a genuine superstar, or has he simply temporarily lost his way? It can be pretty tough to tell at his tender age of 21, so let's take a look at some other highly-touted players at about the same age. While I've tried to assemble a list of players the same age, there just aren't that many who break into the majors before age 21, so where there isn't sufficient data at age 21, I've taken the first full season in the majors.

Jones is at the top, while the rest are arranged roughly in descending order of OPS. When comparing Jones against older players, you have to ask yourself "Will he get this much better in a year?"

To start with in our comparison, we have one of the best-ever seasons by a 21 year-old. Actually, Alex Rodriguez was technically a 20 year-old, as he turned 21 in July of '96. A-Rod did it all that year. The only thing he has never done terribly well has been taking a walk, but he still has one of the better ratios on this list. By this yardstick, Andruw is left in the dust. Not only has Rodriguez already smoked whatever offensive stats Andruw has generated, he plays a more difficult fielding position. Andruw just can't catch up.

It doesn't get any easier with Frank Thomas and Junior next. While Jones is currently batting pretty much like Geronimo Berroa in his prime (that's not a compliment), Thomas and Griffey were already well above-average hitters when they were his age. A good indication of plate discipline is the walk ratio, and Jones has lost some of the plate discipline he showed last year, and is striking out slightly more. Any worse and he's headed for Juan Gonzalez territory. Note that Frank Thomas showed astonishing plate discipline even in his rookie year. Nobody is in the same league - certainly not Jones right now, and I don't see him suddenly jumping to that kind of level next year.
 

Player	Season	Age	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS	AB	H	BB	SO	HR	SO/BB	BB/AB
Andruw Jones	1998	21	.306	.485	.256	.791	441	114	30	98	20	3.27	.07
Alex Rodriguez	1996	21	.414	.631	.358	1.045	601	215	59	104	36	1.73	.10
Frank Thomas	1990	22	.454	.529	.330	.983	191	63	44	54	7	1.23	.23
Ken Griffey Jr.	1991	21.5	.399	.527	.327	.926	548	174	71	82	22	1.15	.13
Manny Ramirez	1994	22	.357	.521	.269	.878	290	78	42	72	17	1.71	.14
Vladimir Guerrero	1997	21	.350	.483	.302	.833	325	98	19	39	11	2.05	.06
Juan Gonzalez	1991	21.5	.321	.479	.264	.800	545	144	42	118	27	2.81	.08
Chipper Jones	1995	23	.353	.450	.265	.803	524	139	73	99	23	1.36	.14
Jermaine Dye	1996	22	.304	.459	.281	.763	292	82	8	67	12	8.38	.03
Larry Walker	1990	23	.326	.434	.241	.760	419	101	42	102	19	2.43	.10
Sammy Sosa	1990	21.5	.282	.404	.233	.686	532	124	33	150	15	4.55	.06
Johnny Damon	1995	21.5	.324	.441	.282	.765	188	53	12	22	3	1.83	.06

Continuing down the list, we see Manny Ramirez - another star outfielder who showed considerably more with the bat at the same age. In the next slot down, we have a contemporary of Jones' in Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero lingers near the bottom of this group in walk ratio, but like Jones, is still respectable. Next is Juan Gonzalez. He may not be one of the top 10 outfielders in baseball, but he's definitely in the next 10. At the tender age of 22, he was already developing his whiff-o-matic strikeout swing, but was still quite productive.

I couldn't resist throwing in Andruw's teammate and namesake, Chipper. As he missed his entire season with a knee injury at the age of 22, I took stats from the next year, when he came back superbly and began to establish his hold on the hot corner in Atlanta. Chipper knows what ball four is, and turned in a comparable season to what Andruw is having right now.

After that I slipped in Jermaine Dye, who was also once highly touted. The striking fact here is Dye's inability to take a walk. Decent average and power, but lousy on-base percentage. Andruw is better than this, but not by much.

Now we come to two of the premiere overrated hitters of today. Neither Larry Walker nor Sammy Sosa made much of their early years. Walker showed good promise with walks and power, however, while Sosa appeared to be the prototype on which Juan Gonzalez modeled himself. It's taken until this year for Sammy to count all the way up to four, but to his credit he has improved...finally.

Last of all, we have another prospect of recent days, Johnny Damon. Maybe it's something about the Kansas City air that seems to suck power out of young prospects, but Damon is yet another speedy defensive center fielder who can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Andruw is certainly a cut above that.

To sum up, Andruw Jones appears not to be the next coming of Ken Griffey, Jr. However, if he can get his head screwed on right, ask Alex Rodriguez for advice on working hard to enhance his talent, instead of relying on it solely, maybe he'll get close. I'm not holding my breath.

Credit the SuperStation hype machine with another victim. Maybe I'll unload that spare '95 Bowman rookie card while the price is still around $40.

Dave Paisley has been disconsolate ever since he discovered that the "George Michael Sports Machine" isn't really a gigantic computer that generates sports. Break it to him gently that it's also the non-singing George Michael at drdjp@strikethree.com.