NL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

As if we were going to leave you hanging with only the American League's top youngsters? Remember friends, we're here to provide you, the reader, with a service, and in this case that service just happens to be telling you about the top rookies in the Senior Circuit. (Caution: you've just read a poorly disguised segue). And speaking of service, these rookies are certainly beginning to accumulate some serious MLB service time, aren't they? I give up. On to the players, without whom there would be no article.

 

Carl Pavano
G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	W	L	ERA
16	16	0	0	91.1	93	54	47	14	31	59	1.36	4	6	4.63

Last time I was quick to point out that even though his ERA wasn't all that great, his peripherals were, and that's always a good sign, especially for a pitcher his age. Well, this month his ERA is exactly the same (4.63) as it was last month, but his peripherals (K:BB ratio, WHIP) are worse. My excuse this time? He's young. Real young, as in only 22, and he's going to be a good one.

It could happen as soon as next season, although I'd look for him to have a breakout season in 2000. Fortunately for Expo fans, manager Felipe Alou has a good grasp on how to handle young pitchers (as opposed to say, Lou Piniella, or even worse, Jim Leyland). Pavano's averaging 92 pitches per start, and he's only gone over 105 twice, never over 120. Bravo.

Right now, his biggest problem is the inconsistency bug - he'll have a couple of good starts, followed by two poor starts, a good start, then another bad one; you get the idea. An easy way to tell if he's "on" in a given start is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he's at his best, he'll whiff two or three times as many hitters as he walks. If he's off, look for even K:BB.

 

Travis Lee
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
108	416	55	115	15	2	20	55	51	93	7	1	.355	.466	.276

Lee missed a little over two weeks with a groin injury, and he's struggled since coming back August 9. The injury came at a very unfortunate time for him - not that there's ever a good time for any injury, let alone one to the groin - as he seemed to finally be hitting his stride. After a mediocre first two months, Lee put up an outstanding 1.002 OPS in June thanks to eight home runs and 14 walks, then followed that up with a .864 July before going on the shelf.

Some advice for opposing pitchers: get ahead in the count against Lee. Most (if not all) hitters have lower batting splits after falling behind 0-1, but Lee is especially disadvantaged. His seasonal OPS is .821, but after strike one, that number drops to a Ordonezesque .674.

 

Todd Helton
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
117	399	59	119	28	1	18	68	32	39	2	3	.354	.509	.298

Well look who's finally decided to take advantage of his home park! Helton might actually have stolen enough ROY votes away from Lee to make things interesting, if it weren't for that flamethrowin' kid pitching over in Chicago (more on him later, and no, we're not talking about Jamie Navarro). Helton's got the edge on Lee in the all-important "media" stats such as RBI, batting average and hits, and he's closing in on Lee for the rookie home run lead.

Is the Coors Effect relevant here? Most certainly. Here are two OPS figures, see if you can guess which one is Helton at home and which is Helton on the road: .918 and .803. Need some more time? That's certainly a significant difference, although the .803 on the road isn't all that bad to begin with. At least he doesn't have Dante Bichette's near-200-point difference between home and road OPS.

 

Dennis Reyes
G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	W	L	ERA
11	3	0	0	28.2	27	17	15	1	20	33	1.64	0	4	4.71	(Dodgers)
3	3	0	0	19.1	9	3	3	1	13	19	1.14	2	0	1.40	(Reds)

The more I see of Reyes (and there's certainly quite a bit to see), the more I like him. The Reds started him off at AAA Indianapolis after the trade, but he's worked his way into the rotation thanks to the failure of Scott Winchester. He's made three great starts since joining the Reds this month, giving up only three earned runs in 19.1 innings.

He's still walking too many batters, but he seems to be able to stay away from the home run ball, so that isn't an immediate concern. Ideally he'll get his K:BB ratio up over 2:1, and eventually around 3:1, but that should come with age and experience. Remember, he's a mere 21 years of age. Reyes has held left-handed batters to an anemic .563 OPS this season, while striking out one of every three he's faced. Ouch.

 

Paul Konerko
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
66	199	21	41	1	0	7	23	14	37	0	1	.266	.317	.206	(Majors)
17	62	7	20	4	0	2	19	6	8	1	0	.380	.484	.323	(AAA)

Yawn. We all know he can hit AAA pitching. When's he going to start hitting in the majors? I tend to agree with his sentiment that he's got nothing left to learn in the minors, and that he needs solid playing time at the big-league level. The problem is that the Reds have a glut of 1B/3B/LF types, and he was passed over last week when the team called up talented Roberto Petagine. Konerko will probably have to wait until next season for another chance, all the while hoping for an injury or a trade. If he gets a serious shot next season and still doesn't show improvement, I'm going to begin to wonder.

 

Derrek Lee
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
111	350	50	87	24	2	14	60	37	86	4	2	.332	.443	.249

A little background: last month I said that Lee might be struggling because he was being less aggressive at the plate; specifically, I said he wasn't striking out enough. I don't get to see him play everyday, but that was my observation from looking at the statistics. It turns out Lee absolutely exploded last month, and what do you know? He struck out more and walked less. The numbers weren't staggeringly different, but they were different. OK, enough about me, let's talk about Lee.

The biggest change in his game since the All-Star break is that he's simply hitting better. His April OPS was .903 (.355 OBP, .548 SLG), but he hit for just a .210 average. Since the break his OPS is .912, but with a .313 batting average. If we break this down even further, his pre-All Star break OBP was .308, with a .212 batting average. He's added roughly 70 points of OBP since the break, but upped his average 100 points. Normally if a player were to add 100 points of batting average, you'd expect around a 130 point increase in OBP. Lee, however, is walking less while getting more base hits, hence the disparity.

 

Kerry Wood
G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	W	L	ERA
23	23	1	1	146.2	103	60	56	11	78	204	1.23	11	6	3.44

Presenting the 1998 National League Rookie of the Year...assuming his arm doesn't fall off. Just as Felipe Alou has been very careful with Carl Pavano, Cubs manager Jim Riggleman has pushed the proverbial envelope with Kerry Wood. At first glance his 109 pitches per start look high, but not alarmingly so. A closer look reveals that he's thrown over 105 pitches in 15 of his 23 starts, and eight times he's been over 120. I don't care how good he is, it's simply irresponsible for a manager to let a 21 year-old hurler throw over 120 pitches once, let alone eight times.

Further, and I could be wrong here, I'm guessing that he's already past (or fast approaching) his highest-ever innings pitched total. Just as I believe young pitchers shouldn't throw 120 pitches in a game, I'm also of the school that believes no pitcher under 23 or 24 should throw over 200 innings in a season. Unfortunately, Wood just may make it to 200.

The Cubs should have taken note when Wood suffered from "dead arm" earlier this month. He didn't end up missing a start, but he should have. If Riggleman doesn't cut some innings off Wood's workload, and fast, we could be talking about entire seasons lost to injury. Does Alex Fernandez ring a bell?

Jason Michael Barker can be reached via email at jmb@strikethree.com, although friends and family should feel free to call him on the phone. No, he's not giving out the number, so don't bother asking.

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