Dog Days Bite Man

Dave Paisley

As my esteemed colleague Jason Barker observed a few days ago, we've hit the dog days of August, when the play starts to drag, the playoff situation seems all set, and there's nothing much to do. Even the Maris chase has cooled off.

Some people are blaming this on the lousy wild card, but I'm not sure that's fair. in fact, I know it's not fair.

The Yankees are a total lock for the playoffs in the Junior Circuit, as are the Indians and Red Sox. The final spot seems destined for Texas, now that the Angels have their entire opening day lineup on the DL. Well, almost. Barring another miracle like '95, the Mariners just don't seem to be able to make a run.

So the AL is really boring. It would be different without that wild card, right?

Sorry, me bucko, you'd be dead wrong. Going back to the "good ole' days" when there were only two divisions, we'd have the Yankees running away with the East from the Red Sox (who wouldn't make the playoffs at all), and Texas would still be fighting off the Angels in the West. But, you say, the top two teams in each division should make the playoffs. OK, so now it's the Yankees and Red Sox in the East, and the Rangers and Angels in the West, leaving the Indians out. The Tribe, by the way, have a better record than both the Rangers and Angels. The only race then would be for second in the East, between the Sox and Indians.

So forget two divisions. How about four? Dividing the league up according to my patented formula (don't ask - it involves a blindfold and sharp pins) I see the Yankees running away from Boston, Baltimore and Tampa in the East. Those Red Sox just can't catch a break. In the Northeast, we have Cleveland running away from Toronto and Detroit, while Texas runs away with a Midwest division that includes the Twins, White Sox and Kansas City. Finally, in the truncated West, we have Anaheim well ahead of Seattle and Oakland. Not a decent division race there at all. And, in the biggest travesty of all, Boston misses out on the postseason altogether, despite having the second-best record.

But surely, you say, the NL must look better than that?

In the two-division setup, we have the Cubs barely ahead of the Mets in the East, and Milwaukee a few games further back. In the West, we have a dogfight between the Braves, Padres and Astros (assuming we keep the Braves in their traditional, but stupid, West division spot.) In a winner-only scenario, the Cubs get to play the Braves, leaving the Padres' astounding year in the dust along with a great effort from the Astros. Even in a four-team scenario, the Astros get left out, despite having a better record than any East team. So stupidity would still be running rampant.

Finally, in a four-division race, the Mets would be holding off the Phillies, Pirates and Expos handily in the East. The Cubs would be winning easily over the Brewers, Cardinals and Diamondbacks in another Midwest division. The Braves would be toasting the Astros, Reds and Marlins in a Southeast division, and finally, the Padres would be running away from the Giants, Dodgers and Rockies in the West. Once again, the Astros lose out. Not only that, there isn't even a single decent race for a division.

The moral of the story is that no matter what the division format, some years will just have very little in the way of pennant races. And of all the ways to slice and dice teams this year, the current three divisions and wild card looks like it will produce the most just result.

One exciting sidelight: As alerted by yours truly recently, Alex Rodriguez just reached career HR #100, and is the fourth-youngest to reach that mark behind Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro and Eddie Mathews. He drops Johnny Bench to fifth, and Hank Aaron drops out of the top 5. He's about 5 months ahead of Griffey's 100 HR pace, and has now hit at least 36 HR twice by approximately age 23 (he's 16 days older than that now.)

Griffey's high before age 23 was 27 HR in 1992. He then busted out with 45 in '93 and hasn't looked back.

So what does this mean for Alex, who still has four years to his "age 27 peak"?

Dave Paisley was recently voted "Most likely to anonymously send Lou Piniella some key statistics regarding Bobby Ayala" by the Strikethree.com staff. Suggest code names other than "Deep Stoat" at drdjp@strikethree.com.