Baseballhead:
When a Walk Isn't Good as a Hit

Michael Cox

Welcome one and all to another edition of the ol' Baseballhead, where this week we thank our lucky stars that, no matter what the current ills (real or imagined) of baseball, at least Michael Irvin doesn't play it.

To kick off (so to speak), I'd like to add one more thing to Derek Zumsteg's excellent piece on the press' obsession with the home run race - the very real possibility that the record may not fall after all.

As of today, neither Sosa nor Griffey are any longer "on pace" to beat Maris. McGwire's projection has dwindled down to 64, barely beating the record. Of course, as every media outlet is reminding you when they read you these numbers, one hot streak by any of these guys will put things right back on track. However, there's a very good reason why the train might become derailed altogether, and it's not the media, who really need to get over themselves.

It's pitchers. Well, more precisely, it's what they're doing.

More and more pitchers are choosing to simply throw the ball outside of the strike zone to these gentlemen. Why? Because the pitchers want their teams to win the game, because many still feel there's something to play for. Somebody somewhere must've read strikethree.com and realized that it hurts opposing teams less to walk McGwire than it is to let him hit. Also, nobody has yet mentioned a major hurdle that Griffey, Sosa and McGwire face - one that Maris never had to worry about - the wild card race.

The Yankees won the American League by eight games in '61, and divisional play wasn't even a dull sheen over the owners' eyes. Most teams were likely out of contention by now (sorry, I don't have the day-by-day standings for '61 handy. You should have felt sorry for me if I had). Contrast to 1998, with three divisions and a wild card spot. When last I looked there were six teams in the AL and ten in the NL who considered themselves in serious contention for postseason play. That's over half the teams in MLB trying to win every game they can.

Add the out-of-it Mariners (because Griffey doesn't get to face his own team, unfortunately) and you don't have many opponents who don't care. Not many pitchers are willing to take their chances (or allowed to take their chances) challenging these guys with their best fastball. Few hurlers will just gamble on putting the ball in play to end the game (and get to the hotel bar) earlier.

In other words, in order to hit 62, these guys are gonna have to take major advantage of mistakes, because few intentional strikes are likely. Lots of walks, and lots of swings at breaking balls out of the strike zone, are the order of the day. But woe betide MLB if the press doesn't get their promised home run king.

Oh, and this late update: the Yanks might not win the World Series. Go lie down for a minute, I'll wait.

Item: On a related note, I had to chuckle During Fox' broadcast of the M's-Tigers contest (hooray for regional focus?!) when they missed a live cut-in for Sammy Sosa's 44th HR because he didn't wait until after commercial. I could tell that this is gonna get sticky if someone gets close: Do they hold commercials after an inning-ending play in Anaheim because Mac is sitting on 58 or 59 with a week to go and on deck in Milwaukee?

Item: On a semi-related note, both McGwire and Astros "iron-man" Craig Biggio sat out a game last week, and UN troops didn't descend from the Rocky Mountains to impose martial law. In fact, it was the fifth game in which Biggio didn't start this year; he was inserted as a pinch-hitter in the other four (hint: it counts as a game played, despite the phoney hoopla surrounding the fifth inning of those Oriole contests in '95). Since the Astros were getting whipped, there was no need to use Biggio.

Sure, a few fans were mad at County Stadium when Mac didn't start, but hey, there was plenty of room for them to go again the next night. Note to Cal: If you weren't making so gosh darn big a deal of this streak thing, you could get some occasional rest. Tell Angelos about the pinch-hitter thing.

On second thought, Angelos likely doesn't have a clue. He thinks he's still in the wild card race...

Item: On a note utterly unrelated to anything, a third suitor for the Marlins have surfaced. Let's see...he has lots of money...willing to pay more than Don Smiley and isn't counting on Huizenga to retain an interest...is willing to spend his own money to build a ballpark...so tell me again - just why is Huizenga still waiting on Smiley?

Item: 'Stros closer Billy Wagner gets konked on the coconut, then comes back with better control than he had before the injury. Don't be surprised to find Mariners officials hiring Gallagher to take Bobby Ayala and Heathcliff Slocumb by surprise...

Item: And finally, Ken Griffey, Jr. boosted his legend just that much further on Sunday with one of the most amazing catches ever in the history of Major League Baseball. What puts it so far above the diving, sliding catches of Jim Edmonds or the Willie Mays-style catches Junior himself makes at will was the amazing amount of hang time he achieved. Methinks the Griffey/Jordan parallels are now beginning to get scary...

Michael Cox doesn't like his new health club, and is this close to starting the beer and Jerry Springer workout. If you're a major-league umpire send training tips to mc@strikethree.com.