Hall of Hopefuls

Jason Michael Barker

With the induction of the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame, now is as good a time as any to take a look at today's players and speculate on which have a good shot at reaching the Hall. Several active players near the end of their careers have already made their case for HoF, having reached such milestones as the magic 3000 career hits. Other players are approaching these qualifying milestones, needing only a handful of hits or wins to lock up their spot in baseball history. Still others are young and have a way to go, but look like good bets if they keep up their current levels.

In order of projected retirement:

Rickey Henderson

What he's got: 1274 stolen bases (#1 all-time), 1850 walks, .405 on-base percentage, 964 RBI, 2636 hits, 1974 runs scored (#6 all-time), #1 all-time in leadoff home runs, 1990 AL MVP, 1989 World Series Title.

What he needs: Nothing, really. He'll end the season with 2000 runs scored, and if he plays another season he could top 1000 RBI and 2000 walks. He's widely considered the best lead-off man in baseball history, and is a definite Hall of Famer.

Paul Molitor

What he's got: 3260 career hits (#9 all-time), 1277 RBI, 1080 walks, 1748 runs scored (#17 all-time), .307 batting average, 1993 World Series Title, 1978 AL ROY award.

What he needs: Nada. He's a 100% lock, thanks to his 3000+ hits.

Dennis Eckersley

What he's got: 195 wins, 390 saves, saved 390 of 454 chances (86%), 3.51 ERA, 3267.0 innings pitched, 2389 strikeouts, no-hitter (1977), 1989 World Series Title, 1992 AL MVP award, 1992 Cy Young Award, best closer in baseball from 1988 to 1992, one of only six men with both 100 wins and 100 saves.

What he needs: In my opinion, he's already in. 200 wins and 400 saves would be great milestones, but he's not going to make it this year, and he may not have enough left to pitch another season or two to reach them.

Wade Boggs

What he's got: 2874 career hits, 967 RBI, 1448 runs scored, 1375 walks, .418 OBP, .330 batting average, five AL batting titles, 11 All-Star selections, 1996 World Series Title.

What he needs: Assuming he doesn't retire after this season, he'll get hit number 3000 next season, and that's enough to put him over the top. To round things out, he'll also go over 1000 RBI, 1500 runs, and 1400 walks.

Cal Ripken, Jr.

What he's got: "The Streak," 1488 runs scored, 2816 hits, 378 home runs, all-time leader for home runs by a shortstop, 1495 RBI, 1054 walks, .275 batting average, 1991 AL MVP, 1983 World Series Title.

What he needs: Zippo. "The Streak" alone is enough to get him in, but he's got the accompanying numbers as well. He'll end the season with over 1500 RBI and runs scored, and hit #3000 should come next season. Depending on how long he plays, he may well end up with 400 home runs.

Roger Clemens

What he's got: 225 wins, 3026 strikeouts (#13 all-time), 3181.1 innings pitched, 2.98 ERA, four Cy Young awards (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997), 1986 AL MVP award.

What he needs: He'd probably make it in right now, but a few more seasons at his current level should clinch it. 250 wins would be nice, but not entirely necessary, and he could reach that mark early in the 2000 season.

Barry Bonds

What he's got: 1312 runs scored, 1848 hits, 394 home runs, 1162 RBI, 435 steals, .959 OPS, 1990 and 1992 NL MVP awards (runner-up in 1991), "Best Player in Baseball" label until only recently.

What he needs: Six more home runs should do it. Why six? He'll enter the 400/400 (home runs and steals) club, a group so exclusive that Bonds himself will be its only member. He's got a couple of seasons left, and may well reach the 500 home run mark, which would only strengthen his case.

Mark McGwire

What he's got: 431 career home runs, 1000 walks, 1081 RBI, .956 OPS, 1987 ROY award, 1989 World Series Title.

What he needs: Not much else. Barring injury, home run number 500 should come in 2000, if not next season, which makes him a virtual lock for the Hall. He's way down in hits (1297), but should end up with around 1500 for his career. Regardless, the homers are enough to get him in.

Greg Maddux

What he's got: 198 career wins, 2.73 ERA, 2774.0 innings pitched, 1956 strikeouts, four-time Cy Young Award winner (1992-95), widely regarded as baseball's best pitcher of the '90s.

What he needs: It isn't so much a question of what he needs as it is of how much more he'll do. He's been downright awesome since 1992, with 1996 the only season his ERA has been over 2.36. He's also one of the best control pitchers of all time. As far as numbers go, he's a good bet for 2000 strikeouts and 200 wins (this season) as well as 3000 innings (next season). Just 32 and absolutely coddled by Bobby Cox, he may well make a run at 300 wins if he can pitch into his late 30s.

Frank Thomas

What he's got: 1.031 OPS (#5 all-time), 1359 hits, 850 runs, 274 home runs, 918 RBI, 1993 and 1994 AL MVP awards.

What he needs: To be sure, he's got a ways to go. He'll get 1500 hits, 1000 runs, 300 home runs and 1000 RBI, but that won't be enough since the voters don't understand OPS. Thomas needs four or five more seasons at pre-1998 numbers, which shouldn't be a problem if you believe, as I do, that this season is some sort of anomaly. Either way, he was the most productive offensive player in the league from about 1993 to 1997, and surely that should count for something.

Ken Griffey, Jr.

What he's got: 334 career home runs, 1512 hits, 963 RBI, .953 OPS, .303 batting average, 1997 AL MVP award, "Best-" and "Most Popular Player in Baseball" labels, eight Gold Gloves at the most demanding outfield position.

What he needs: Four or five more seasons at, or close to, his current levels. He should end the season with 1000 RBI, and might end it with 350 home runs. He'll surpass 1000 runs scored next season. If you conservatively estimate 40 home runs a season, he's a good bet to hit number 500 by the 2002 season, and he may also make a run at 3000 hits before he's through.

Alex Rodriguez

What he's got: Statistically, not much at this point, but remember that he just turned 23. His 1996 season was the best ever by a shortstop, although he didn't win the MVP as he should have.

What he needs: Quite a bit, but it shouldn't be much of a problem if he follows normal player development; i.e., he continues to improve each season, peaking around age 28 or 29, then slowly declining into his mid-30s. Playing shortstop is a big advantage - second only to catcher - and he may well go down in history as the best shortstop ever to play the game. Barring injury, he's got as good a shot at the Hall as any player his age has ever had.

Jason Michael Barker wishes everyone could make it to the Hall of Fame, but alas there isn't room for every Steve Trout and Mike Blowers. Let Jason know if you agree with this or not, then offer to explain why Joe Carter IS a Hall of Famer, dammit, to jmb@strikethree.com.