AL Prediction Update

Dave Paisley

With all the All-Star hoopla, I've barely had time to score my report card for progress up to the break, but here it is. I have to admit that apart from the Yankees and Mariners, everyone's doing very well by my pre-season predictions, and I doubt that anyone else had them picked for quite the spectacular years they are having.

Let's look at the teams ranked in order from overachievers to underachievers.

Those Yanks just continue to roll. Without a truly standout year from any single player, they are outscoring my prediction, allowing fewer runs, and also making better use of those runs than they have any right to. Amazing.

Perhaps a bigger surprise are the Angels, whose pitching rotation is scotch-taped together, and whose lineup features a crippled Tim Salmon. I am very impressed with the way Cecil Fielder has played first base in the forced lineup shuffle. His crisp play there has allowed Erstad to move to the outfield, and Salmon to DH. Altogether, those moves maximize the Angels offense while accommodating the injuries. Up 73 runs in scoring, and 15 fewer given up than I expected has allowed them to battle to the top of the AL West. As we hit crunch time down the stretch, don't be surprised if the house of cards collapses, though.

The final big surprise on the positive side is the Red Sox. I expected them to be good, but their offense has come up with 42 more runs than I predicted, while the BoSox pitching has just about held its own, giving up 12 runs fewer. All of that translates to a very nice 6 games above my expected mark.
 

Team	W	L	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Runs Scored- Prediction	Runs Allowed- Prediction	Wins- Predicted	Wins - Wins Predicted
Yankees	61	20	484	327	40	-33	50	11
Angels	49	37	437	412	73	-15	43	6
Red Sox	52	33	468	382	42	-12	46	6
Rangers	48	39	514	473	78	40	44	4
Twins	40	46	397	378	33	-10	36	4
Indians	50	35	478	364	15	-51	48	2
Royals	38	48	368	466	11	52	37	1
A's	41	45	458	469	41	47	40	1
Devil Rays	34	52	308	401	-83	-54	36	-2
White Sox	35	51	439	553	33	96	37	-2
Tigers	34	50	391	444	24	30	37	-3
Blue Jays	46	42	419	430	-19	37	49	-3
Orioles	38	50	423	458	0	33	44	-6
Mariners	37	51	462	478	-34	81	55	-18

Jumping quickly down to the cellar dwellers, the Mariners continue to defy the Pythagorean theorem with an astonishing 14 games under .500, and their runs scored is roughly even with their runs allowed. Their mates in misery, the Orioles, have matched my predictions closely, scoring exactly on target, while allowing only 33 more. Hey, even I can underestimate Norm Charlton at times. But they're another team defying the theorem. Again, almost the same number of runs scored and allowed, but 12 games under .500. These are two ugly seasons.

Of the middle of the pack, nobody stands out much. The Devil Rays total lack of offense is offset a little by their better-than-expected pitching. The Royals, Tigers and White Sox are awful, and are right on target. The A's are doing about what I expected, with good hitting, but poor pitching is still holding them back.

Meanwhile, the Indians are cruising along, getting better pitching than expected, but not necessarily making the most of it. In their division, though, who cares? They apparently don't, at least until playoff time, when the lack of experience could hurt them.

Finally, the Rangers and Twins are doing a little better than expected, the Rangers because of their better hitting earlier in the year. Their lousy pitching has kept them from taking full advantage though, and of late they have returned to the mediocre club I expected.

The Twins still maintain their advantage in scoring, although they aren't able to turn that into wins on the field consistently enough. Make a run at the Indians? Don't make me laugh...

Dave Paisley spends his nights trying to determine whether Ty Cobb would've been more "effective" against trick-or-treaters than Albert Belle. Tell him you doubt whether kids would want to get close enough to Cobb's house to egg it at drdjp@strikethree.com.