RBI Vulture II: Ultimate Roadkill

Dave Paisley

Love them or hate them, Runs Batted In are as much a part of the game as the seventh-inning stretch and bad hot dogs. And while McGwire and Griffey are hogging the limelight this year with their home run chase, Juan Gonzalez is relentlessly pursuing a goal that is just as difficult to achieve. That goal is Hack Wilson's season RBI record of 190.

Early in the year, I figured there was no way Gonzalez was having anything other than a flash-in-the-pan month of April, but here we are at the midpoint, and he's still on track. Perhaps more miraculously, he's keeping up with Wilson's RBI pace with only 80% of Wilson's OPS (On-base Plus Slugging). The season Wilson got the record, his OPS was close to 1.200, one of the better marks in the history of the game. Gonzalez is managing the same pace with a mere .920 OPS (.332 OBP, .588 SLG). 101 RBI at the All-Star break. Incredible.

How does he do it, this man of mooch? Is he stealing RBI from small babies in the parking lot before the game? We know he glares at scorers 'til they change an error to a hit. But still, he is on this uncanny roll of knocking in runs.

Compare Gonzalez to Ken Griffey, Jr., who hits for better average, higher on-base percentage and higher slugging (.299, .382 and .678 respectively), and has 10 more home runs, yet had a "mere" 79 RBI at the break.

As many statheads suspect, much of the credit goes to the hitters in front of Gonzalez. Not only are they getting on base at very decent clip (average of .385 OBP for the three guys ahead of Gonzalez), they aren't hitting for much power at all (.362 average SLG). This has the dual advantage of putting guys on, but not having someone else drive them in before Gonzalez steps to the plate.
 

Player	Batting Order  Position	OBP	SLG	RBI
Goodwin	#1	.367	.303	11
McLemore	#2	.413	.372	40
Greer	#3	.374	.412	52
	Average	.385	.362	34

Compare that to Ken Griffey Jr.'s plight, where the three guys ahead of him have an average OBP of only .339, added to the fact that Alex Rodriguez with his 27 home runs bats right in front of Griffey, stealing numerous RBI (70 total so far) with his .581 SLG that far exceeds Greer's paltry .412.
 

Player	Batting Order  Position	OBP	SLG	RBI
Davis	#9	.305	.454	50
Cora	#1	.352	.351	12
Rodriguez	#2	.359	.581	70
	Average	.339	.462	44

The difference shows up in the situational splits, where Griffey bats with any runners on only 48% of the time, while Gonzalez sees runners out there somewhere 56% of the time. That's about 30 more ABs, or 20% more opportunities for Gonzo.
 

Gonzalez	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS	%AB	%RBI
Total	352	61	103	26	101	.332	.588	.293	.920	100%	100%
None on	156	8	36	8	8	.281	.449	.231	.730	44%	8%
Runners on	196	53	67	18	93	.372	.699	.342	1.071	56%	92%
Griffey	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS	%AB	%RBI
Total	345	76	103	35	79	.382	.678	.299	1.060	100%	100%
None on	181	21	59	21	21	.405	.751	.326	1.156	52%	26%
Runners on	164	55	44	14	58	.358	.598	.268	.956	48%	74%

And not only does Gonzo see more opportunities, he takes better advantage of them. With nobody on, Gonzo goes to sleep, punching out an anemic .730 OPS, including only 8 of his 26 homers and bagging a paltry 7.9% of his RBIs. Put a duck on the pond, though, and his OPS perks up to a very respectable 1.071. Seems like teams aren't exactly pitching around him. Griffey, on the other hand, is hitting a mammoth 1.156 OPS with nobody on, including 21 of his 35 homers. Thanks to those, he gets 26.5% of his RBI with nobody on. Put guys on in front of him, though, and Griffey becomes a merely excellent .956 OPS hitter. Maybe it's the pressure he puts on himself, maybe it's the opposition pitching around him more, or perhaps it's just blind random chance.

Gonzalez needs another 90 RBI to break the record, and he'll need Goodwin, McLemore and Greer to keep getting on base in front of him as often and as weakly as possible. Don't want Greer stealing any of those ribbies. At this point it seems as if there are more pitfalls for Gonzo than there are in the home run race for McGwire and Griffey, as Juan depends on other players more, but I didn't think he'd get this far.

RBIs - love 'em or hate 'em, breaking the record would be a hell of a feat.

Dave Paisley is currently working on an article in praise of empty-average hitters, in hopes that the other managers in his fantasy league will read it. Send superlatives describing Gregg Jefferies to drdjp@strikethree.com.