Wild About the Card: AL

Dave Paisley

The American League wild card isn't quite so interesting as it is over in the senior circuit. Two of the divisions are almost foregone conclusions - the Yankees because they've been great, and the Indians because the rest of the division is so bad.

That leaves the AL West as the only race of note, in addition to the wild card. The Red Sox have had a very decent start, but like the Mets, a better team blew the doors off the division race before Boston had a chance to catch a breath. So throw them in the mix with the Angels and Rangers, and there's a three-way fight for two playoff spots. Although the Blue Jays and Orioles are tied at seven games behind the Red Sox, I've included only the Blue Jays here as a measure of what other competition there may be for the top three contenders.

Without further ado, let's check out their respective offenses. Names in bold are players having notably sub-par years (at least by conventional wosdom), while italics show players who are having unnaturally good years so far. (Remember that OPS is On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average.)
 

	Boston		Texas		Anaheim		Toronto
Pos	Name	OPS	Name	OPS	Name	OPS	Name	OPS
C	Hatteberg	.760	Rodriguez	1.043	Walbeck	.710	Fletcher	.744
1B	Vaughn	.964	Clark	.872	Fielder	.775	Delgado	.948
2B	Merloni	.852	Alicea	.800	Baughman	.637	Fernandez	.820
3B	Valentin	.755	Tatis	.632	Hollins	.717	Sprague	.707
SS	Garciaparra	.828	Elster	.742	DiSarcina	.784	Gonzalez	.619
LF	O'Leary	.876	Greer	.778	Erstad	.942	Canseco	.847
CF	Buford	.820	Goodwin	.713	Edmonds	.944	Stewart	.687
RF	Lewis	.763	Gonzalez	.929	Anderson	.800	Green	.786
DH	Jefferson	.963	Stevens	.843	Salmon	.981	Stanley	.835
	Average	.842	Average	.817	Average	.810	Average	.777

 
The Red Sox are the obvious class of the field. Even with John Valentin having a sub-par year, this is still a very good offense. The BoSox' outfield offense was looking very suspect early, but these are decent numbers. Added to their potent infield hitting, and this is a deep, potent group.

Texas and Anaheim are a notch back, and very comparable. the Angels offense all comes from their outfielders. Even Garret Anderson is almost respectable this year. With Tim Salmon unable to play the field and a threat to go on the DL anytime, and Jim Edmonds' annual self-destruction act imminent, the Halo offense is pretty fragile.

Meanwhile, the Texas offense rests almost entirely on Gonzalez and Rodriguez, and that may be too much of a load to carry for the whole season.

Toronto just doesn't belong in the same league, unfortunately. Delgado is the only genuine threat, as even Canseco's glamour numbers fail to compensate for the vast number of outs he makes.

Now their pitching:
 

	Boston		Texas		Anaheim		Toronto
Pos	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA
SP	Martinez	3.31	Sele	4.05	Finley	2.75	Clemens	3.47
SP	Wakefield	4.07	Helling	4.42	Dickson	5.43	Williams	3.29
SP	Saberhagen	5.05	Burkett	6.26	Olivares	2.29	Hentgen	4.35
SP	Avery	4.41	Oliver	7.01	Sparks	5.40	Guzman	6.02
SP	Lowe	4.04	Witt	7.66	Washburn	2.29	Carpenter	4.77
	Average	4.18	Average	5.88	Average	3.63	Average	4.38

 
Despite having pitchers going down like ducks at a shooting gallery, the Angels have still managed to patch together a decent rotation. Finley has come back from last year's injury in mid-season form, and Omar Olivares has resurrected his career in great style since he was thrust into the rotation when Jack McDowell went down. it isn't a great rotation, but it's getting the job done.

Boston is another patchwork quilt built around one ace, a couple of scrapheap reclamation projects and a rookie. Add in the inning-eating knuckleballer and it seems to work fine.

Not far behind is Toronto. Clemens is far from last year's Cy Young form, but added to Williams, Hentgen and Carpenter, they are solid. Juan Guzman is something of an enigma. he seems to be pitching well at times, but look away for a minute and he gives up six runs. An ERA of 6+ with Toronto's poor offense is no way to win games.

Rounding out the group, we have the woeful Rangers. Sele and Helling are returning to earth after winning a ton of games due to incredible run support from the incediary Texas offense. They are still pretty decent, however, unlike the veteran starters, who should all be worrying about the same glue factory where Texas sent Witt.

And now for the bullpens:
 

	Boston		Texas		Anaheim		Toronto
Pos	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA
RP	Gordon	1.96	Wetteland	1.69	Percival	3.03	Myers	4.13
RP	Corsi	2.29	Gunderson	1.71	Hasegawa	3.51	Quantrill	2.95
RP	Garces	2.32	Patterson	4.37	Cadaret	3.12	Plesac	3.38
RP	Wasdin	5.66	Crabtree	4.41	DeLucia	6.25	Risley	3.90
	Average	3.06	Average	3.05	Average	3.98	Average	3.53

 
Tough to choose between Boston's and Texas' pens, really. Good closers, good setup men.  Randy Myers hasn't been the Myers of '97 so far, but the Toronto situation is still far from what the Orioles are going through. The rest of their pen is pretty good, with Paul Quantrill being their best reliever so far.

For Anaheim, Percival hasn't been totally dominant, but he seems to be rounding into shape, having allowed only five base runners (three by walk) in his last eleven appearances. There's decent setup support there, but nothing special.

After all that, how do things stack up in the drive for the postseason?
 

Team	Offense	Starters	Bullpen	Total	Result
Max Score	10	10	5	25
Boston	10	7	4	21	AL Wild Card
Anaheim	8	8	3	19	AL West
Texas	8	5	4	17	Miniature Golf
Toronto	6	7	3	16	Curling

 
Boston is definitely the class of the field here, and I fully expect them to finish with the best record, possibly better than the Indians, too. The AL West race has gone first to Texas, then to Anaheim of late, but I don't see how Texas has the pitching to make a run back at Anaheim. it may be close for a while, but I expect to see Texas drop slowly back. better break out the bright orange golf balls, boys.

The Blue Jays really have no chance. Their offense is woeful, and they'd need three Cy Young winners to compensate. For them, success will be finishing third in the division, and maybe getting Jose Cruz Jr. to hit again. Otherwise, it's off to the curling rink for them.

Dave Paisley has been closely following the career of Jeff Manto. You could ask him how it's going, but he'll likely just grumble, at drdjp@strikethree.com.