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Wild About the Card: NL

Dave Paisley

As we approach the halfway mark of the season, it looks like there's only one sure bet for a division winner in the National League. That would be the Maddux gang, naturally. After that, it's pretty much a crapshoot, with the other two divisions being somewhat hotly contested and the Mets right in the thick of things for the wild card.

I recently reviewed the unexpected NL West title-contending Padres and Giants head-to-head, and by throwing in the Central contenders in Houston and Chicago, along with the Mets, we have our favorite five.

Here's how the prime suspects' offenses match up. Names in bold are players having notably sub-par years, while the italics show players who are having unnaturally good years so far.  (Remember that OPS is On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average.)

	Giants		Padres		Astros		Cubs		Mets
Pos	Name	OPS	Name	OPS	Name	OPS	Name	OPS	Name	OPS
C	Johnson	.781	Hernandez	.646	Ausmus	.631	Servais	.596	Piazza	.860
1B	Snow	.604	Joyner	.832	Bagwell	.882	Grace	.964	Olerud	.963
2B	Kent	.847	Veras	.741	Biggio	.943	Morandini	.852	Baerga	.730
3B	Mueller	.821	Caminiti	.827	Spiers	.830	Hernandez	.844	Alfonzo	.735
SS	Aurilia	.850	Gomez	.693	Gutierrez	.741	Blauser	.646	Ordonez	.546
LF	Bonds	1.033	Vaughn	1.007	Alou	1.047	Rodriguez	.777	Gilkey	.724
CF	Hamilton	.754	Finley	.694	Everett	.925	Brown	.844	McRae	.736
RF	Javier	.635	Gwynn	.906	Bell	.860	Sosa	1.061	Huskey	.727
	Average	.791	Average	.793	Average	.857	Average	.823	Average	.753

Of this bunch, the Astros win the offensive battle hands down, with the Cubs not too far behind. The Astros' attack is very well balanced, with only a hint of a weak spot at catcher. Great looking offense. The Cubs are almost as good, with only Henry Rodriguez and Scott Servais yet to bring anything to the party.

The Padres and Giants are tied for third, while the Mets are woeful.

Looking at the unusual years, the Giants are pretty even, J.T. Snow excepted. The Padres have Ken Caminiti's injury-marred year offset by Greg Vaughn's eye-popping start. Similarly, the Astros have a sub-par year from Jeff Bagwell offset by an exceptional performance by Moises Alou. The Cubs also have a tweedle-dum and tweedle-dee pairing in Blauser and Sosa.

Overall, I think we can expect the statistical oddities to even out over the year.

The Mets, on the other hand, are getting a very good year from Olerud, and mostly typically terrible years from everyone else. Meanwhile, Mike Piazza is back to his top form as a Met, so expect his numbers to climb. However, unless they put some of those outfielders to sleep and replace them with baseball players, their offensive outlook is bleak. Words fail me where Rey Ordonez is concerned.

And now for our starting pitching comparison:

Giants		Padres		Astros		Cubs		Mets
Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA
Hershiser	3.19	Ashby	2.21	Hampton	2.80	Wood	3.25	Leiter	1.70
Rueter	3.73	Brown	2.74	Reynolds	3.19	Trachsel	3.86	Reed	2.31
Darwin	4.54	Hitchcock	3.90	Bergman	3.00	Tapani	4.17	Yoshii	2.82
Estes	4.73	Hamilton	5.20	Lima	3.35	Clark	4.70	Jones	3.61
Gardner	5.79	Langston	5.22	Schourek	3.57	Gonzalez	5.58	Nomo	4.81
Average	4.40	Average	3.85	Average	3.18	Average	4.31	Average	3.05

Though the Mets' offense is awful, their pitching is absolutely fabulous, dahling. Early indications are that the change of scenery has helped Hideo Nomo, and with an effective Nomo as a fifth starter, this rotation is very solid. The Astro staff isn't far behind, and their strength is in the consistency of the rotation.

Hampered by the fourth and fifth guys, the Padres' rotation is a fair distance behind. Ashby and Brown are great, but the rest of the rotation is average at best.

Far behind, and tied for last in this group, are the Giants and Cubs. If age catches up to Hershiser and Darwin, the Giants are toast, as there is very little holding that rotation together. The Cubs' hopes rest on a 20 year-old phenom, adequately supported by Trachsel and Tapani, but precious little else. I really don't like the chances of these rotations down the stretch.

Even if the starters succeed, how are the bullpens?

Giants		Padres		Astros		Cubs		Mets
Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA	Name	ERA
Nen	1.30	Hoffman	1.63	Wagner	1.73	Beck	3.63	Franco	2.88
Reed	1.45	Wall	2.67	Henry	3.38	Adams	2.20	Rojas	2.83
Johnstone	1.66	Miceli	3.21	Nitkowski	3.52	Mulholland	3.82	Bohanon	2.51
Tavarez	3.53	Reyes	3.81	Miller	3.57	Pisciotta	3.90	Cook	2.74
Average	1.99	Average	2.83	Average	3.05	Average	3.39	Average	2.74

Significant advantage to the Giants here, with a solid closer and great setup relief. I've a feeling they'll get burned up eventually, though, as the starters fade. Next are the Mets, with good balance in the pen. With the great starting pitching, that pen should stay fresh, too.

Close behind them are the Padres. Great closer, adequate setup. With Ashby and Brown, it seems that the pen will get adequate rest two days out of five, at least.

Close behind them are the Astros, with Billy Wagner still walking too many guys, but generally getting the job done. Oh, and he's still striking out about 15 per nine innings. The rest of the crew are adequate.

Trailing the pack are the Cubs, for whom Rod Beck has blown three saves in twenty tries so far. Closer-in-waiting Terry Adams has a better ERA, but still walks too many and is about as homer-prone as Beck. Not a very solid pen.

So what does all this mean for the race?

Well, let's score the offense and starters out of 10, and the pen out of 5, and see what we come up with.

Team	Offense	Starters	Bullpen	Total	Result
Max Score	10	10	5	25
Astros	9	9	3	21	NL Central
Padres	7	8	4	19	NL West
Mets	5	10	4	19	NL Wild Card
Giants	7	6	5	18	Golf
Cubs	8	6	3	17	Disneyland

The Astros seem to be the class of the field, with grrreat offense and starting pitching, and an adequate bullpen. Let's give them the NL Central.

The Padres and Mets aren't far behind, with completely different complexions. The Padres are more well-balanced, while the Mets have the worst offense but the best starting pitching. Based on this, I'd give the Padres the NL West, and expect the Mets to hold off the Giants and Cubs for the wild card.

Even more than the numbers in the table above, what I don't like about the Giants and Cubs are their starting rotations. Once you get past the number one and two guys, there isn't much else there. It should make for some great October family vacations, though.

Dave Paisley plans to visit Joe Robbie Stadium next week. He doesn't want to actually go in, because that would ruin the magic. Offer him a tour of the parking lot at drdjp@strikethree.com.