Ask Not For Whom the Axe Falls

Jason Michael Barker

When a team is struggling or not living up to expectations, where do you make changes? Players usually escape the blame, save the occasional "troublemaker" who will be traded to improve team chemistry. General managers typically have good job security, if only because they are hard to replace. That leaves the manager as the number one scapegoat for a losing team. You've heard the reasons before: "He can't motivate the players," "he can't handle a pitching staff," "he gets outmanaged every game," "he refuses to manufacture runs," and so on. When a team is struggling and management decides it's time to make a change, the manager is always the one to go, justified or not.

Every year there's speculation about who'll be the first to be fired, and this season is no different. With that in mind, it's time to take a look at the managers who should fear for their jobs.

Lou Piniella, Seattle (29-40, 4th AL West, 11.5 GB)
The Mariners are the biggest disappointment in baseball after preseason expectations of a trip to the World Series, and it all starts with the manager. Piniella's biggest weakness is his handling of a pitching staff, which is a glaring problem this season. If he has a good staff, as he did in 1995, it isn't so obvious. If he has a mediocre staff, as he does this season, the problem is increased tenfold. Pitching coach Nardi Contreras was fired early in the year and replaced with Stan Williams, and things have been slightly better since, but the problem still exists. For some reason, "Sweet Lou" is revered as a near deity by most Seattle fans, who are unable to see his faults. He is a fan favorite, which will probably lead to him keeping his job much longer than is called for (the same reason the M's keep starting 2B Joey Cora).

Ray Miller, Baltimore (33-36, 4th AL East, 9.5 GB)
Their record isn't that bad, but for a team with the highest payroll in baseball, it's horrendous. Miller, a tremendous pitching coach, is getting most of the blame for being unable to produce results from a team with so much "veteran talent." However, GM Pat Gillick is the real culprit in this, having spent owner Peter Angelos' money on such proven veterans as Norm Charlton, Joe Carter, Ozzie Guillen, and Doug Drabek. Miller, who may be overmatched as a manager, will probably be fired by season's end if the O's don't start winning, as Angelos isn't going to put up with losing much longer. He'll certainly land on his feet as a pitching coach somewhere in 1999 if not sooner.

Bill Russell, Los Angeles (34-34, 3rd NL West, 9.5 GB)
Another team with high expectations and little to show for it, the Dodgers are struggling just to remain at .500, much less to compete in the NL West. The Men in Blue are 15-12 since "The Trade," a slight improvement but not enough to get back into the race. Russell has a great pitching staff and a solid offense, but so far the team seems unable to put it all together. He may find himself out of a job if new owner Rupert Murdoch decides it's time for a change, with Davey Johnson rumored as a possible replacement.

Others
Toronto fans have been grumbling about manager Tim Johnson, but he's done a good job keeping them at around .500 despite an anemic offense and a pitching staff that isn't as good as last year's. White Sox skipper Jerry Manuel, despite a 28-39 record, should be given some time to work things out. The Sox have a very weak pitching staff, and their offensive stars (Thomas, Belle, Ventura) are performing below their career levels. Anyone who thought Chicago would compete this year with that pitching staff were deceiving themselves. After finishing at .500 last year, Detroit is 15 games under (25-40) so far in 1998. You might think Buddy Bell should be canned, but last season the Tigers got several career years from their players, especially P Willie Blair. It isn't all that unusual for a team to fall off dramatically after making a push for .500 the year before.

Meanwhile in the NL, the Rockies (30-40) are struggling under Don Baylor. But as in Baltimore, it isn't so much his fault. Management spent big bucks on P Darryl Kile, P Pedro Astacio, and 2B Mike Lansing, all of whom have flopped, while letting productive 1B Andres Galarraga go to Atlanta via free agency. And as they say, you can't fire the team.

Jason Michael Barker can't handle the bat to save his life, but he's known to be a good veteran influence in the clubhouse, bullpen catcher and sign-stealer, among other things. If you'd like to sign him for the minimum, you can reach him at jmb@strikethree.com.