The Payroll-to-Win Ratio

Derek Zumsteg

We're often told that there are only eight or so teams that can actually contend, about eight more that are close, and the rest are also-rans. We're also told that a team's success is tied so directly to its payroll that you cannot succeed without big money. With that in mind, check out this chart which graphs team payroll (bottom numbers) to wins (left-side numbers). The payroll figures are from opening day, (Florida didn't really ditch salary until a couple weeks ago, so their figures are accurate). The black diagonal line represents the average expected payroll-to-win ratio:

Woah, you say. While an average team with a payroll of $40M can expect about a .500 win percentage, there are some weird data points in there. Who are those line-jumpers? Why is the line too good for them? Check it out:

New York Yankees

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$63,460,567	.767	.586	18% (+11 wins)

Steinbrenner woefully underpaid Rivera and Jeter. This is a team that's been pretty well assembled. I'm the only person not crazy about their starting rotation, but they're winning, so I'll shut up.

San Diego Padres

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$43,368,000	.632	.513	12% (+8 wins)

Greg Vaughn finally starts to earn his pay. Besides that, the Padres made good pickups to become competitive, and they didn't overspend. Nice work.

Houston Astros

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$40,629,000	.606	.494	11% (+7 wins)

Good spenders. Wisely let Kile walk, signed Alou at a reasonable price, spent their money well. The team is playing .600 ball on a .500 budget, and that's pretty impressive.

San Francisco Giants

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$40,570,833	.603	.494	11% (+7 wins)

Brian "I am not an idiot" Sabean's luck appears endless. Supposedly this is a better team than last year, but they're still paying J.T. Snow millions to look like J.R. Phillips (if you understood that, congrats). Rob Nen was a great pickup, the bullpen is really well-assembled from veterans any stathead could see were bargains, and Barry Bonds justifies your love. Sabean's bizarre Bad Move-Brilliant Move strategy baffles me.

Seattle Mariners

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$52,027,136	.426	.540	-11% (-8 wins)

Manager is an idiot who can't manage pitchers at all. General Manager is an idiot who paid $3M for one of the worst relievers in baseball after last year trading away Derek Lowe (a fine young pitcher) and Jason Varitek (a uh, young catcher) for the same reliever, who was about to be chased from Boston by angry townsfolk. Ownership is stupid for leaving these two in their jobs. Local and national media is stupid for coddling all three and blaming the bullpen instead of responsible parties. I'm stupid for going to the games.

Baltimore Orioles

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$68,988,134	.478	.608	-13% (-9 wins)

Ray Miller is an idiot who plays small baseball and doesn't understand why he loses. Peter Angelos gives huge contracts to old, average and worse players. Offseason moves were uniformly terrible. I could have told you before the season that Baltimore was going to suck. In fact I did. Often mentioned as a 'disappointment' despite the fact that anyone not enraptured with their 'clubhouse leadership' knew they were going to suck it up.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$30,571,500	.324	.454	-13% (-9 wins)

I love Matt Williams, but he's overpaid by a huge margin, along with Bell. There are some good, young, underpaid players on this team, but the Williams-Bell contracts are long and going to keep this team down for quite some time.

Florida Marlins

Payroll	Win %	Expected %	Difference
$33,434,000	.299	.466	-17% (-11 wins)

Surprise, surprise. Not only do they suck, but they sucked a long time with a huge payroll. Why? Their pitching sucked far, far worse than was previously considered possible. Bonilla and ass-head Sheffield didn't do much to justify their love while in town. I can't believe Sheffield had the gall to demand LA buy out his no-trade clause after all his public bitching about his contract -- and what's worse, LA bit for it to the tune of $5M. Did the resulting media circus make Fox $5M in ad revenue? Who knows? Seen "Tomorrow Never Dies," anyone?

Other

I'd like to thank the Philadelphia Phillies for their close adherence to my formulas. At $34,370,000, the Phillies projected to .469 and that's exactly what they got.

Summary

There is a correlation between spending and winning, but it's not as dead-even as many would have you believe. While it appears you must spend at least $40M to compete for a title, that's league average. What gets a team from average to contender is either money (Cubs), smarts (San Diego, Houston), or both (Yankees). But without intelligence, all the money in the world is worth nothing (Baltimore, Seattle).

Derek Zumsteg is currently working on a coffee table book featuring the favorite hangover remedies of MLB stars. Help him figure out how to get Mo Vaughn to return his phone calls at dmz@strikethree.com.