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Heating Pads: May NL Report Card

Dave Paisley

Finally, here we are with the NL review. The first thing you may notice is that the results here are a lot more scattered than the AL. For instance, only three teams in the AL were more than three wins away from my predictions, but only four of the NL teams are within three games. Are my NL prognostication skills so bad, or is the Senior Circuit really unpredictable?

Once again, the team chart is arranged in order of best to worst, relative to my numbers. Leading the pack in surprises are the San Diego Padres. I certainly didn't think they'd be quite this good. After all, who expected Greg Vaughn to show up again? No, really. However, overall the Padres offense is about what I expected, the real revelation has been the pitching staff - 50 runs under my numbers. Ashby and Brown are rock solid, and even Sterling Hitchcock has risen to the occasion when required. If Joey Hamilton was having a half-decent year, they would be running away with the division.

The Cubs are managing to hang on a bit before they undoubtedly proceed to break their fans hearts again. That Wood kid sure has helped, though. And Sammy Sosa - what have he and Greg Vaughn been drinking? Like the Padres, the Cubs are doing it with pitching. Tapani, Trachsel and Wood are a pretty good trio.

This year, the Giants are at least earning their victories by scoring more runs than they give up, and once again, they've been pitching much better than I gave them credit for. Although the starters don't have great numbers (except Hershiser), they are all decent, and with three guys in the pen with ERAs under 2.00, nothing much is slipping through the cracks during the late innings.

Skipping to Houston, there's another team whose offense I pegged pretty closely, despite a poor start by Bagwell. Alou is making up for that, though. Pitching is what has propelled the Astros so far, and Bergman, Hampton, Lima and Reynolds are all pitching very well.

In between we have the Phillies, who are 5 games better at this point than I expected. Still not very good, but better than really awful. Unlike the really good teams, the Phillies are doing it with the bat, scoring 34 runs more than I expected. Still not great, but Rolen and Abreu, with a little help from Jefferies and - surprise - Doug Glanville, are keeping it respectable.

Milwaukee is managing to do a bit better than expected, but decent pitching and an anemic offense isn't a recipe for future success.

Next up, we have the Mets, who are right on track offensively, but who have allowed a stunning 55 fewer runs than I predicted so far. How dare they! Leiter has returned to great form, and Yoshii, Reed and Jones have all been very good. Trading Mlicki for Nomo is probably a wash, but with perhaps a bit more upside for the Mets.

The Braves roll on. Score a few more, allow a few less. Three games better so far. Gotta love that Big Cat. At first I thought he was a good pickup, but for too much money. Now, I only think the contract may be a little too long. But it is really nice to see him and Weiss do well away from Coors.

Poor Pittsburgh. Better pitching, worse offense, same result.

St. Louis may be getting some mileage out of McGwire, but pitching staff injuries have decimated them. Still, nobody's running away with the Central. If they can get some arms healthy, maybe they can make a second half charge.

Team	W	L	ARS	ARA	AR Diff	PRS	PRA	RS Diff	RA Diff	RD Diff	W Pred	W Diff
San Diego	36	22	279	221	58	284	270	-5	-49	44	30	6
Chicago	33	24	279	253	26	279	284	0	-31	31	27	6
San Francisco	35	24	291	232	59	289	282	2	-50	52	30	5
Philadelphia	26	29	254	276	-22	220	270	34	6	28	21	5
Houston	34	22	289	210	79	283	265	6	-55	61	29	5
Milwaukee	28	27	235	255	-20	248	277	-13	-22	9	24	4
New York	31	22	241	177	64	241	232	0	-55	55	27	4
Atlanta	41	18	324	211	113	305	225	19	-14	33	38	3
Pittsburgh	28	30	233	240	-7	265	280	-32	-40	8	27	1
St Louis	29	27	303	301	2	264	247	39	54	-15	30	-1
Montreal	21	36	191	282	-91	232	280	-41	2	-43	23	-2
Cincinnati	27	32	263	286	-23	312	295	-49	-9	-40	31	-4
Arizona	19	39	226	312	-86	242	292	-16	20	-36	23	-4
Los Angeles	27	30	247	257	-10	279	234	-32	23	-55	33	-6
Florida	17	40	263	354	-91	258	298	5	56	-51	24	-7
Colorado	24	34	274	325	-51	337	304	-63	21	-84	32	-8

All predicted values were calculated from my pre-season team OPS and ERA evaluations. They have been pro-rated to the number of games played so far (up to and including June 2.)

Stat Glossary

ARS - Actual Runs Scored,
ARA - Actual Runs Allowed
AR Diff - Actual Run Differential (Actual Runs Scored - Actual Runs Allowed)
PRS - Predicted Runs Scored
PRA - Predicted Runs Allowed
RS Diff - Runs Scored Difference (Actual Runs Scored minus my prediction)
RA Diff - Runs Allowed Difference (Actual Runs Allowed minus my prediction)
RD Diff - Run Differential Difference (Actual Run Differential minus my prediction)
W Pred - Pro-rated wins predicted by me.

Unfortunately, Montreal is underperforming even my underwhelming predictions, mostly due to a lack of offense. Hard to believe it could be worse than I expected. Without Vladimir Guerrero and Rondell White, life would be bleak indeed. One bright spot this year will be watching Carl Pavano pitch, however. Along with Carlos Perez and Dutin Hermanson, there are faint signs of a decent rotation.

Cincinnati is something of a disappointment, despite fine seasons by Taubensee, Boone and Young. Unfortunately the rest of their offense is still hibernating. The pitching staff has a couple of standouts in Harnisch and Tomko, but there's not much help elsewhere.

The two expansion teams, Arizona and Florida, are both managing to underperform together, and by quite a margin. For Florida, it was tough to predict pitching performance, as nobody knew who'd be pitching for them. Do we even know now? Who are those guys? As for the Diamonbacks, you need a second scorecard to keep track of the Rotation O' The Week. Jeff Suppan finally gets to rest his 7.00 ERA in favor of Bob Wolcott, who promptly comes in and smokes the Oakland A's. But then, he always did. The surprises offensively are David Dellucci and Devon White, while Matt Williams and Travis Lee are barely adequate.

We wrap up with my projected frontrunners for the NL West, the Dodgers and the Rockies. Both are scoring a lot fewer runs than predicted, and allowing more. Not terribly good. Colorado is in the middle of the pack in runs scored, leading to rumors that Galarraga and Weiss paid to have the light air shipped to Atlanta. Meanwhile, only the aforementioned AAA Marlin staff has allowed more runs - a very bad sign indeed.

Dave Paisley has secretly wired the MLB owners' hotel rooms here in Seattle with miniature speakers which repeat the subliminal suggestion, "dollar microbrews...dollar microbrews...". Send verbal high-fives to drdjp@strikethree.com.