Dealer's Choice:
Early-Season Trades are Wild

Jason Michael Barker

Did someone change the calendar and forget to tell me about it? I only ask because with all the trade rumors swirling about, it seems much more like late July than late May. It all started with "The Trade", which sent Mike Piazza to the Marlins and Gary Sheffield to the Dodgers. It continued with "The Trade II", in which Piazza was dealt to the Mets, virtually ensuring a catcher controversy once All-Star Todd Hundley returns to action.

So what's to blame for this calendar fast-forward? The biggest reason is teams not living up to early expectations, and looking to make moves to either meet those expectations or throw in the towel on the season. Most people expected the Dodgers to win the NL West, but San Diego came strong out of the gate and jumped out to an early lead in the division. The Padres have since come back to earth, but still lead LA by 2.5 games. The Dodgers made "The Trade" in an attempt to get back in the race, and so far it's worked. The Orioles have the highest payroll in baseball, but so far have limped to fourth place in the AL East. Not surprisingly, they're looking to trim payroll. The Mariners, much like the Dodgers, were expected to win their division, but so far Seattle has been a mediocre team struggling to stay at .500. These early-season woes, coupled with Randy Johnson's desire to be traded, have led to rumors aplenty regarding the Big Unit.

Meanwhile, teams like the NY Mets sense a shot at the wild card. Last week, the Mets were reportedly close to a deal with the Orioles that would have sent 1B Rafael Palmeiro and 2B Roberto Alomar to NY in exchange for 1B John Olerud, 2B Carlos Baerga and possibly a prospect. The hype around that deal has died down somewhat, which is too bad for Mets fans. It seems that the Mets have decided to make a run this season (albeit for the wild card), as evidenced by their move to get Piazza, and adding Palmeiro and Alomar would be another step in the right direction. Olerud is a great hitter, and is having a great season so far, but there's no reason to think he'll continue at his current (.475 OBP) level. Palmeiro would be a slight downgrade, but to his credit, he's rebounded nicely from a sub-par 1997. This slight downgrade would be worth it, however, because Alomar for Baerga is a steal. Look past Baerga's .288 batting average and you'll see that he's only getting on base at a .310 clip. Alomar, on the other hand, is posting a .388 OBP so far this season, and is one of the best defensive 2B in the league. He'd be a good fit either in the leadoff- or two-spot in the Mets lineup.

So what's in it for the Orioles? Palmeiro and Alomar, both free agents at the end of the year, are making over $6M each this season. The O's would drop about $4.25M in salary from the highest payroll in baseball - a payroll that's gotten them only fourth place so far. If the O's continue their losing ways, owner Peter Angelos may decide that it's time to throw in the towel, and you know what that means: time to cut salary.

While the talk surrounding a Orioles-Mets deal has all but died down, the rumors surrounding Randy Johnson are headed in the other direction. Johnson's trade value continues to rise thanks to his last two outings, in which he dominated the Devil Rays, and as a result it seems that more teams are becoming interested. The Orioles, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, and Padres are all said to have expressed at least a fleeting interest, with the Dodgers currently the top suitor. An intelligent GM would take advantage of the situation, pitting division rivals against each other in an attempt to maximize what he's getting in return  San Diego would undoubtedly be willing to offer a little bit more if it meant keeping Johnson away from LA, and vice versa. Unfortunately the Mariners have a less-than-intelligent GM in Woody Woodward, whose trade blundering is known league-wide.

The hot rumor this week was Johnson to the Dodgers for P Hideo Nomo and OF Todd Hollandsworth. This deal makes no sense for the Mariners, which is probably why it's just a rumor. Opposing hitters seem to have figured Nomo out, as evidenced by increased ERAs each season he's pitched in the majors, and for his career, his ERA is nearly 1.5 higher on the road than at Dodger Stadium. Nomo, who tends to give up more than his share of long balls, would get killed in the homer-friendly Kingdome. Meanwhile Hollandsworth, with his career .733 OPS, is the textbook definition of scrub, and would not be a long-term solution for the Mariners.

Unless Woodward can somehow manage to pry good pitching away from the Dodgers (Darren Driefort, Antonio Osuna, Chan Ho Park, etc.), which doesn't seem likely, any deal with LA at this point would be for the sake of making a deal, and that just doesn't make sense for Seattle. It's two months until the trading deadline, and assuming Johnson continues to pitch well, Woodward should be able to get something decent in return. Unless he doesn't.

Jason Michael Barker attended his first major-league baseball game back when the Kingdome seemed really "cool. He doesn't remember much about the game, but he does remember that it was John Moses' birthday. If you remember John Moses, or can name his present occupation,  email Jason at jmb@strikethree.com.