Dodger Dogs?

Dave Paisley

With all the hoopla about the Piazza trade (and it will be forever known as "The Piazza Trade", not "The Piazza-Sheffield Trade") how exactly do things shake out stat-wise for the Dodgers? We should obviously concentrate on the Dodgers, because the Marlins aren't done yet, and they really don't care how they do, at least not this year.

Before we get to comparing players, some will note that Dodger Stadium is an offensive sinkhole, and that the players leaving will see a great boost in offense, while the players going there will wither away. There are two reasons why this is unlikely to be significant. Pro Player Stadium is another one of the few offensive sinkholes in the major leagues. While run scoring at Dodger Stadium is down almost 20% below average, it's down 10% at Pro Player. Not insignificant, but one of the few places where it won't be a huge factor.

Then there's the curious case of the ex-Rockies this year. Galarraga, Weiss and McCracken were all supposed to fail dismally away from the thin air of Coors. If anything, the opposite has happened. Sure, it's early, but if there are serious park effects, other factors have swamped them.

So, it's on to the players.

First, what happens at catcher? The Dodgers lose a guy who will probably end his career as the best catcher who ever played the game. With a career OPS of .966 to date, Piazza can be relied for a few seasons of .950+, if the rigors of catching don't begin to hurt his offense. Johnson is four years younger, and while he will never be the offensive force that Piazza is, he looks like he will average out to the .800-.850 OPS range. call this a net loss of .150 OPS points for the Dodgers.

Catcher	Age	Career OPS	1997	1998
Piazza	29	.966	1.069	.826
Johnson	26	.746	.801	.766

Next, we have third base. This is a trade of two veterans, Zeile for Bonilla. Bonilla is undoubtedly the better player, but has been on the DL frequently of late. His career OPS of .847 is about eighty points better than Zeile's .728. Zeile had a great year last year, but the gap this year is closer to their career numbers. Call this a .080 OPS gain for the Dodgers. A year or two out of Bonilla, and the slot will be open for Adrian Beltre.

Third Base	Age	Career OPS	1997	1998
Zeile	32	.766	.824	.737
Bonilla	35	.847	.846	.809

The final major piece of the puzzle is Sheffield. Whatever the outfield configuration looks like, Sheffield will replace the anemic bat of Todd Hollandsworth (and the cast of thousands currently playing left field) in the batting order. Being generous to the incumbents, allowing them a .750 OPS, this ends up as a net gain of about .130 OPS points.

Left/Right Field	Age	Career OPS	1997	1998
Hollandsworth	25	.728	.654	.696
Sheffield	29	.881	.870	.892

Eisenreich is pretty much a non-factor in this deal. He does nothing more than clear a roster slot for the Marlins.

So offensively, the Dodgers gain maybe .060 in OPS, an advantage that would disappear if Piazza had another monster year (which he hasn't so far.) While they lose the megastar, they have eliminated a couple of black holes in the lineup, which would hopefully make the offense more consistent overall.

For the Marlins, the primary goal of dumping salary is achieved, of course. They get a chance to bring up Todd Dunwoody to fill out the outfield. Piazza will be unloaded soon to some team that thinks his added offense can put them over the top. He's a perfect fit for an AL team that can DH him once or twice a week to save his knees and extend his useful career. Florida may not get much for him, but an Eric Milton- or Carl Pavano-type prospect would probably fit the bill, as they are still woefully short on pitching. Stocking up with young arms would be the smart thing to do.

In fact, as bad as this looks for the Marlins, it's actually a pretty good deal for the future, even if it makes the present look pretty nasty.

Dave Paisley isn't sure quite why, but he's suddenly hungry for a fish pizza. Send him your own really bad puns at drdjp@strikethree.com.