April in Stats: American League

Dave Paisley

Now that we've traipsed roughshod through the hits and misses in my National League predictions, it's time to revisit the AL. The teams are again arranged in order of performance relative to my predictions, best to worst. In this update, I'll focus first on the big winners and losers so far, then on any interesting anomalies.

Texas is the obvious surprise team. Looking across the table columns, we can see they have 18 wins so far. I predicted they'd win 84 this year, which would mean they should have only 13 so far. They've scored 182 runs and given up 121. My pro-rated prediction says they should have scored 131 runs and given up 126, so they've exceeded expectations by 57 net runs.

From that line, it's evident that Texas is doing it with extra offense, and the pitching is about right on track. That makes you wonder how bad the rest of the staff is when you take out Sele and Helling. Of course, the Rangers aren't going to keep up this pace, but it's an impressive start.

Next comes Boston, who are performing right on my runs scored and allowed predictions, but who have so far managed to parlay that into 3 extra wins. Almost likewise for the Yankees, who are scoring just a shade more than predicted. From the small sample size of just one month, these swings are pretty much to be expected.

The big losers so far are Seattle, Toronto and Detroit.

Seattle is, amazingly, outscoring my prediction, and if it wasn't for the alien-possessed Rangers, they would be the top scoring team in the AL. Their pitching is horrible, however, giving up 38 more runs than predicted. Although the bullpen has been atrocious, many of these extra runs are coming from the starters in some really bad games. When Seattle plays, so many runs score that neither team is out of it until the final out.

If Seattle is a case of high hopes being dashed, then Detroit is a case of low hopes being dashed even further. After a modest improvement last year, some pundits expected them to get even better this year. Not me. And even my predictions have been way too optimistic so far. By scoring 17 less and giving up 27 more, Detroit is the anti-Texas so far. They're the only team not to break 100 runs in April (although that 17 against Seattle on May 1 put them over the top!)

The last big loser, at least in my book, is Toronto. Last year the pitching was great, the offense woeful. After dumping some veterans and going with a young and improving outfield, they had the opportunity to get quite a bit better. Sadly, the pitching has gone backwards, and the hitting is, if anything, worse. Worse still, the only decent hitting they're getting is from veterans. After a home run and triple on opening day, Jose Cruz Jr. has been unable to crank out an extra-base hit. He's currently under the OPS Mendoza line of .600. Scoring 30 runs less and giving up 20 more than my predictions puts the Blue Jays in a nasty hole.

The rest of the teams are within a couple of games of my predictions. Nine of fourteen are really very close.

There's Chicago, living up to my lowly expectations. Is Frank Thomas going to be another Tony Gwynn, with only one post-season appearance per decade?

Then look at the curious case of Minnesota. They,ve outscored their opponents by a healthy 21 runs, and have beaten my prediction by a total of 43 net runs, yet they have only 11 wins - exactly what I predicted. When they win, they win big, and when they lose, they go down like the Titanic.

I can't say I'm surprised at Baltimore. Although they got off to the hot start, they were only playing Kansas City and Detroit. Looks like it might be a long year sucking on Red Sox and Yankee fumes.

Finally, kudos to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitching staff. They're outperforming my prediction so far by 20 runs, which is just enough to get them 2 extra wins. If they keep this up, they have a shot at .500 this year, and a very good chance of staying ahead of the Blue Jays.

Team	W	Wpr	Wpm	dW	RS	RA	RS-RA	RSpm	RApm	dRS	dRA	dRS-R
Texas	18	83	13	4	182	121	61	130	126	51	-6	56
Boston	18	91	14	3	138	120	18	129	115	8	4	3
New York	17	96	13	3	135	107	28	120	101	14	5	8
Anaheim	15	79	12	2	119	110	9	127	128	-9	-19	10
Tampa Bay	12	64	10	1	116	119	-3	117	141	-2	-23	21
Kansas City	12	66	11	0	134	151	-17	116	138	17	12	5
Minnesota	11	66	11	-1	137	116	21	113	135	23	-20	42
Oakland	12	76	12	-1	135	130	5	127	133	7	-4	11
Baltimore	14	87	14	-1	135	139	-4	134	124	0	14	-14
Cleveland	14	91	14	-1	143	141	2	143	129	-1	11	-13
Chicago	10	71	11	-2	128	148	-20	127	140	0	7	-7
Detroit	6	68	10	-5	89	149	-60	105	122	-17	26	-44
Toronto	10	87	14	-5	100	140	-40	129	120	-30	19	-50
Seattle	12	102	17	-6	161	159	2	153	120	7	38	-31

Stats Glossary

W - Actual wins
Wpr - Dave's season total win prediction
Wpm - Dave's predicted wins prorated for games played
dW - Actual wins minus predicted wins
RS - Actual runs scored to date
RA - Actual runs allowed to date
RS-RA - Actual net runs
RSpm - Dave's runs scored prediction to date
RApm - Dave's runs allowed prediction to date
dRS - Actual runs scored minus predicted runs scored
dRA - Actual runs allowed minus predicted runs allowed
d(RS-RA) Actual net runs minus predicted net runs

Dave Paisley owns his own golf clubs, which gives him the inside track to win the Strikethree.com Pro/Am (the fact that we neglected to get any Pros helps too). Offer him endorsement deals at drdjp@strikethree.com.