Dave Paisley

The AL Cy Young has a major new player this year, and he's off to a rip-roaring start with an 0.84 ERA and 2-0 record, which includes a two-hitter against the mighty Seattle offense. Yes, we're talking about Pedro Martinez, and he may just be the first guy to win consecutive Cy Young awards in different leagues. Of course, the reason for that is that Cy Young winners rarely get traded right after they win the award, but this is the nineties, and Montreal has the perennial fire sale sign hanging on the door.

A Cy Young winner needs to have two numbers go his way - ERA and wins. ERA is very much in his own hands, but the latter is in the hands of his offense, defense and bullpen. I'm assuming for the moment that the Cy Young won't be won by a reliever. Without at least two of those three elements, a guy hasn't got a chance, given that some other good pitcher will get those things in any given year. Add to that list staying healthy for the full year, and it takes a fair amount of luck for even the best pitcher to win the award.

Of course, in handicapping any horse race, you have to check the breeding, so I've compiled the five-year records of the best pitchers currently in the AL. They are ranked by OPS allowed (opposing hitters' on-base percentage plus slugging).

(See the Stats Glossary at bottom for term definitions)

Name	Team	Age	ERA	W	L	G	IP	BB	K	H	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	BRIP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	K/BB
Randy Johnson	Sea	34	2.86	75	20	132	916.0	338	1182	671	76	.284	.322	.606	1.102	3.3	11.6	0.75	3.5
Pedro Martinez	Bos	26	3.01	65	38	183	904.1	305	962	696	72	.286	.333	.619	1.107	3.0	9.6	0.72	3.2
David Cone	NYY	35	3.17	64	35	127	922.0	376	807	735	79	.301	.341	.642	1.205	3.7	7.9	0.77	2.1
Roger Clemens	Tor	35	3.32	61	46	144	1009.0	372	1009	860	75	.306	.343	.649	1.221	3.3	9.0	0.67	2.7
Kevin Appier	KC	30	3.41	63	48	154	1042.0	373	919	890	74	.302	.349	.651	1.212	3.2	7.9	0.64	2.5
Justin Thompson	Det	28	3.25	16	17	43	282.1	97	195	250	27	.305	.367	.672	1.230	3.1	6.2	0.86	2.0
Jeff Fassero	Sea	35	3.38	64	45	176	943.1	307	834	888	76	.306	.367	.673	1.267	2.9	8.0	0.73	2.7
Mike Mussina	Bal	29	3.78	83	39	150	1033.2	259	796	974	121	.295	.404	.699	1.193	2.3	6.9	1.05	3.1
Wilson Alvarez	TB	28	3.68	63	48	152	973.2	465	741	882	90	.330	.370	.700	1.384	4.3	6.9	0.83	1.6
Jaret Wright	Cle	22	4.38	8	3	16	90.1	35	63	81	9	.314	.387	.701	1.287	3.5	6.3	0.90	1.8
Andy Pettitte	NYY	26	3.58	51	24	101	636.1	200	442	645	45	.322	.380	.702	1.328	2.8	6.3	0.64	2.2
Chuck Finley	Ana	35	3.96	69	58	152	1039.2	405	900	1006	110	.327	.390	.717	1.358	3.5	7.8	0.95	2.2
Pat Hentgen	Tor	29	3.82	77	51	158	1121.1	388	741	1100	123	.321	.398	.719	1.327	3.1	5.9	0.99	1.9
Charles Nagy	Cle	31	4.06	60	36	127	845.0	260	593	905	89	.329	.411	.740	1.379	2.8	6.3	0.95	2.3
Brad Radke	Min	25	3.87	42	40	99	652.2	152	397	664	100	.304	.451	.755	1.251	2.1	5.5	1.38	2.6
Averages		30	3.57	57	37	128	827.2	289	705	750	78	.309	.374	.683	1.257	3.1	7.5	0.85	2.4

The rest of the cast in the AL race is headed by the usual suspects, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. However, these guys have all have had their problems in the early going. Johnson has had an indifferent start to the season, pitching poorly three times, with only one very good game. In that span though, he lost two wins due to the shabby Mariner bullpen. Johnson has the offense, adequate defense and a lousy bullpen behind him.

Mussina has been steady, but has still taken two Oriole losses before sitting out with a cracked wart on his pitching hand. The Oriole offense should be average, defense average, and the bullpen good, if a little off from last year.

Clemens had one good start, then strained a groin muscle two batters into the second game, which could nag him for a while unless he rests until it's completely healed. Either way, his stock drops. As for support, the Toronto offense should be better than last year (which isn't necessarily saying much) the defense is adequate, and the bullpen very good.

Throw in the newly blond Chuck Finley, a decent pitcher who finished last year strong (before the freak injury) and is off to a hot start, and you have my top five picks. Finley has decent offense backing him up, pretty good defense, and a good bullpen.

Now, there are other contenders, but it takes an almost perfect season and good luck to win the Cy Young, and some guys have already run into problems.

As noted earlier, bad luck has already hit some of the stables. The injury bug has taken down Kevin Appier, gone for at least half the season, while David Cone has stumbled out of the starting gate while coming back from an injury. Jeff Fassero, usually a workhorse, has missed two starts already and needs to get on track quickly to contend, although the fact that he is back in the rotation so soon is promising.

There are two relative newcomers in the pack, and they may make a showing early, but don't have much of a shot over the full year. Justin Thompson, although he has a full year's experience, just doesn't play on a good enough team, and won't be able to rack up the wins required to contend. Jaret Wright, despite name recognition from the playoffs, just doesn't have the experience, although working with Cleveland's offense he should get wins. He hasn't fared well in the early going, however.

Of the remainder, Pat Hentgen and Andy Pettitte are certainly capable, despite poor starts. Charles Nagy is a steady pitcher, but has been unable to sustain brilliance for long enough to do anything but start an All-Star game. Brad Radke may be ready to challenge in a couple of years, but is still too prone to the gopher-ball. Wilson Alvarez, a fringe contender at the best of times, won't contend on an expansion team.

My ultimate pick? Who can bet against Pedro Martinez with the start he's had? If the trick to winning the Cy Young is to get in a groove and stay there, he has the inside track to the award.

Stats Glossary

ERA - Earned Run Average
W - Wins
L - Losses
G - Games (Appearances)
IP - Innings Pitched
BB - Bases on Balls
K - Strikeouts
H - Hits allowed
HR - Home Runs allowed
OBP - Opposing batters' On-Base Percentage
SLG - Opposing batters' Slugging Percentage
OPS - Opposing batters' On-base percentage Plus Slugging
BRIP - Base Runners per Inning Pitched

Dave Paisley has a mean slider, and we're not talking about a pitch. You really don't want to know, but if you're a masochist, go ahead and ask anyway at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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