NL Cy Young Candidates:
Not Just for Maddux Anymore?

Dave Paisley

In this decade, the Cy Young in the NL has been contested by Greg Maddux versus the rest of the NL, and he's won four times out of eight, so who can bet against him this year? With Pedro Martinez out of the way, there are only a couple of serious contenders at this early stage of the season.

A potential Cy Young winner needs to have two numbers go his way: ERA and wins. ERA is very much in his own hands, but the latter is in the hands of his offense, defense and bullpen. This is assuming for the moment that the Cy Young won't be won by a reliever. Without at least two of those three elements, a guy hasn't got a chance, given that some other good pitcher will get those things in any given year. Add to that list staying healthy for the full year, and it takes a fair amount of luck for even the best pitcher to win the award.

Of course, in handicapping any horse race, you have to check the breeding, so I've compiled the five-year records of the best pitchers currently in the AL. They are ranked in the chart below by OPS Allowed (opposing batters' on-base percentage plus slugging).

(See the Stats Glossary at bottom for term definitions)

Team	Name		Age	ERA	W	L	G	IP	BB	K	H	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	BRIP
Atl	Greg Maddux		32	2.13	89	33	157	1156.1	154	883	950	46	.254	.300	.554	.955
LA	Ismael Valdes		24	3.03	41	30	117	647.2	162	491	579	55	.285	.358	.643	1.145
LA	Hideo Nomo		29	3.34	43	29	94	627.0	255	703	497	60	.297	.346	.643	1.199
SF	Shawn Estes		25	3.50	22	13	46	288.1	144	255	241	17	.327	.319	.646	1.336
Atl	John Smoltz		31	3.31	72	48	155	1080.2	338	1031	927	93	.292	.355	.647	1.171
LA	Chan Ho Park		23	3.59	19	13	84	308.2	148	298	238	33	.309	.338	.647	1.252
Fla	Livan Hernandez		23	3.08	9	3	18	99.1	40	74	84	17	.307	.341	.648	1.251
SD	Kevin Brown		33	3.21	65	49	151	1045.2	271	746	1002	60	.308	.348	.656	1.218
Phi	Curt Schilling		31	3.52	51	41	125	871.1	219	859	774	86	.287	.375	.662	1.140
Atl	Tom Glavine		32	3.20	80	39	159	1078.2	390	720	1010	69	.315	.354	.669	1.298
NYM	Rick Reed		32	3.39	15	10	44	249.2	43	140	233	28	.285	.392	.677	1.108
Az	Andy Benes		30	3.86	60	55	152	992.0	353	874	912	98	.310	.383	.693	1.275
LA	Ramon Martinez		30	3.62	64	37	136	890.1	395	637	814	78	.328	.367	.695	1.358
Col	Darryl Kile		29	3.78	59	44	150	921.0	415	783	860	65	.339	.363	.702	1.384
Atl	Denny Neagle		29	3.26	61	37	172	882.2	228	666	868	92	.306	.404	.710	1.242
Stl	Alan Benes		26	4.17	23	21	60	368.2	159	311	344	42	.330	.391	.721	1.366
NYM	Bobby Jones		28	3.86	51	38	124	806.1	240	483	823	86	.320	.409	.729	1.319
Average			29	3.41	49	32	116	730.1	231	578	666	60	.306	.362	.669	1.239

You can see that Maddux has clearly outclassed the field over the last five years, with the only OPS Allowed under .600, and then by a fairly large margin. Even in his so-called "off-year" in 1996, he had an astonishingly low number of base runners by anyone else's standards, at barely over one per inning. Lest you think I gush too much, I've never really been a Maddux fan. I think he gets calls other pitchers don't, but despite all that, I still think he's amazing.

Curt Schilling pitched last year like a man possessed, but for a truly awful team. He has come out firing this year too, facing Maddux head-to-head twice already, with Schilling getting the better of the battle.

The other perennial is Kevin Brown, now heading up the San Diego rotation, and looking pretty good in the early going.

The other inhabitants of the upper reaches include Ismael Valdes, who is oft-rumored to be going to Seattle for Randy Johnson. Sure, his numbers are kept low partly because he pitches in Dodger stadium, but: 1) he's still very good; 2) the Cy Young voters tend not to know or care about park effects. Then comes Hideo Nomo, who seemed to lose his way last year, giving up a lot more hits than in the past. Added to his propensity to walk guys, it was a definite off year for him. Another fine young pitcher, Shawn Estes, was dismissed last year because of a few "lucky" wins and the Giants' improbable record, given their run differential. However, even a cursory glance at the numbers shows that Mr. Estes' season was no fluke. Another one like that and he could contend.

Then we have John Smoltz, getting a late start due to injury. It may be too tough to overcome the loss of a month or so. Next on the list is another LA contender, Chan Ho Park. If he can cut down on the walks, he could be very tough.

Livan Hernandez was a phenom last year, and now has to anchor a very suspect Marlins rotation. Unfortunately for him, he may as well be pitching for the Titanic for all the good it will do. It also remains to be seen whether he can carry the load for a full season, and he'll have to cut down on his hitters' home run rate.

Tom Glavine pops up next. He's always in the hunt, but the odds on him even being the best pitcher on his own team are fairly slim, so he drops back. Rick Reed is an interesting candidate. A late bloomer, he allows very few base runners, his only downfall being the gopher ball. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain last year's form.

Andy Benes just isn't Cy Young caliber, and pitching for Arizona he won't rack up the wins he'd need to blind the voters, so count him out. Same for Darryl Kile, really. A good year last year, but not Cy Young material, and Coors will blunt his numbers even in a good year for him. Throw in a horrible start and he's out.

Denny Neagle and Bobby Jones are fringe candidates, while Alan Benes is out injured, and will probably miss too many games to contend.

You may have noticed that I skipped a name as I went down the list. I was saving him for last. Ramon Martinez has come out blazing in the early going. Perhaps his nagging shoulder injury is finally healed; maybe he's out to prove he can match his younger brother. Whatever it is, he has the talent to win the award. Maybe he does break down at some point, but if he doesn't, he may be this year's dark horse.

My ultimate pick? Ismael Valdes, the other Dodger dark horse. (C'mon, picking Maddux would have been way too easy and boring.)

Stats Glossary

ERA - Earned Run Average
W - Wins
L - Losses
G - Games (Appearances)
IP - Innings Pitched
BB - Bases on Balls
K - Strikeouts
H - Hits allowed
HR - Home Runs allowed
OBP - Opposing batters' On-Base Percentage
SLG - Opposing batters' Slugging Percentage
OPS - Opposing batters' On-base percentage Plus Slugging
BRIP - Base Runners per Inning Pitched

You know when they show those games at Dodger Stadium, and there's that guy in an ugly hat with a speed gun who's always in the dugout seating? That's Dave Paisley. Honest. He doesn't like to talk about it, though, so don't ask him about it at drdjp@strikethree.com.