NL Rookies:
This isn't the PCL anymore

Jason Michael Barker

I suppose there's a reason that they're called rookies. Perhaps it's because they don't really know what they're doing yet. Of course, neither do I. Of the six players I profiled last month, two have yet to appear in the majors this season, and the other four have struggled. But let's check in with them anyway, shall we?

Carl Pavano, Red Sox
	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	ERA
Spring	3	n/a	0	8.0	8	5	5	n/a	3	4	1	1	0	5.63
1998	Has yet to play in the majors

Did I overhype him in my initial NL Rookie Roundup? OK, so maybe I did. Maybe it's because he's on my fantasy team. Maybe it's because of his unreal minor league totals. But whatever the reason, Pavano didn't have a memorable spring. He pitched poorly in three outings, then had his spring cut short by injury. He and fellow pitching prospect Matt Wagner (acquired from the Seattle Mariners as part of the Jeff Fassero trade) are starting the year in Florida on rehab assignments.

I still like Pavano's chances for big-league success, despite this minor setback. If Montreal doesn't want to subject him to all the losing they're going to be doing this season, it might make sense for him to pitch another half-season in the minors. Then again, Felipe Alou needs starting pitching, so we might see Pavano by the end of the April.

Travis Lee, Diamondbacks
	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
Spring	23	75	25	5	0	2	12	16	8	12	.333	n/a	.480
1998	9	35	9	1	0	2	3	2	2	10	.257	.297	.371

The hype has been building for over a year now, from the $10 million the Diamondbacks paid him to his incredible minor-league totals, and opening day did nothing to curb the hype -- Lee went 3-for-4 in his major-league debut, and hit the first home run in team history. Not surprisingly, he has struggled with major league pitching since then, slumping to a .257 average. But not to worry, Diamondbacks fans. He still has that sweet left-handed swing, and is a vacuum cleaner around the bag.

Like most rookies, Lee hasn't shown the greatest plate discipline, striking out 10 times in 35 at-bats. That rate should drop once he's been around awhile. But get used to this theme -- young hitters invariably struggle as they adjust to big-league pitching and the big-league strike zone. There's a big difference between the PCL and the majors.

Todd Helton, Rockies
	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
Spring	28	84	26	6	1	3	12	17	10	10	.310	n/a	.512
1998	8	31	9	4	0	0	3	3	2	4	.390	.333	.419

Like his fellow National League West rookie 1B counterparts, Helton had a productive spring campaign and won the starting job coming out of camp. He showed that all-important plate discipline this spring, walking 10 times in 84 at-bats. He's hitting .290 so far this season, although his on-base and slugging percentages leave something to be desired. A few more games in Coors Field should help boost his numbers.

Helton was my pre-season Rookie of the Year pick, and I'm sticking with him. His 1998 numbers only reflect three games played at Coors, and like all rookies, he's still learning the opposing pitchers. I expect his numbers to surpass those of Lee and Paul Konerko once he starts taking advantage of his home park.

Dennis Reyes, Dodgers
	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	ERA
Spring	8	n/a	0	22.0	32	17	17	n/a	8	22	2	0	0	6.95
1998	Has yet to play in the majors

Despite my predictions to the contrary, Reyes didn't win the Dodgers fifth starter job this spring. In fact, he had a pretty poor spring except for his strikeout numbers. When I first profiled Reyes a month ago, I said that he would need to improve on his strikeout rate in order to succeed. Sure enough, he stepped it up this spring, striking out 22 batters in as many innings. Unfortunately, he gave up 32 hits and 17 runs in those same innings, and the Dodgers optioned him to AAA Albuquerque of the PCL.

All told, it's probably better off that Reyes start the year in AAA. The Dodgers have a good rotation of Nomo, Park, Martinez and Valdes, and for the moment they don't really need a fifth starter. When they do, it'll be flame-throwing Darren Driefort, a good pitcher in his own right. Reyes didn't get very much work in at AAA last season, and could benefit from a brief stint. Look for him by the All-Star break, or sooner if one of the Dodgers starters goes down.

Paul Konerko, Dodgers
	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
Spring	27	86	29	1	0	5	15	23	6	12	.337	n/a	.523
1998	7	24	5	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	.208	.296	.208

Despite a great spring campaign, Konerko looked like a man without a job until starting 1B Eric Karros had knee surgery on March 29. The "convenient" injury has left him with the starting job, at least until Karros returns. Konerko has yet to show any of the power he displayed in the minors  he has no extra-base hits so far in 1998. On the positive side, he's only struck out four times in 24 at-bats, not too bad for a young hitter.

What the Dodgers plan to do with Konerko when Karros returns remains to be seen, although they've said that they definitely want to keep his bat in the line-up. He's too good to sit the bench or be sent back to the minors. One plan is to move 1996 Rookie of the Year Todd Hollandsworth from left to center field, with Konerko taking over in left. The possibility also remains that either Karros or third baseman Todd Zeile will be traded to make room for Konerko.

Derrek Lee, Marlins
	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
Spring	20	52	16	8	1	0	9	7	7	12	.308	n/a	.500
1998	6	13	2	0	0	2	2	8	2	5	.154	.267	.615

Boom! Whiff! No, this isn't an episode of the old Batman TV show. Follow Lee this season, and you're likely to hear those two sounds in abundance. First, the boom - so far in 1998, Lee has two hits, both of which are mammoth homers. Now, the whiff - he's also struck out 5 times in 13 at-bats. The good news for the Marlins is that the power is there. Unlike many young players, Lee doesn't need to grow or develop any more strength. The key for Lee will be putting it all together.

Given a full season, he'd likely strike out 150 times or more (in 1996 he fanned 170 times in the minors), but he'd probably also hit 30 home runs. Whether or not the Marlins have the patience to stick with him over the full course of the season remains to be seen, but one thing is certain -- he's one player who's definitely deserving of the "raw" tag.

Bonus Coverage! Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs.

Next month I'll be looking at some new National League rookies, but I couldn't wait to jump on this one. Wood is the Cubs' top prospect, and he finally got the call-up Friday when Bob Patterson was placed on the DL. He's scheduled to start today in Montreal. In his only start this year for AAA Iowa, Wood pitched 5 scoreless innings, striking out 11, walking 2, and allowing just 1 hit. His career minor league totals are equally impressive - 11 Ks per 9 innings and a .179 average against. He could be a major surprise this season, especially if the Cubs keep winning.

Jason Michael Barker almost threw his computer out the window today when he was forced to re-install Windows95. Send your CONFIG.SYS file, a boot disk, or a brand new Macintosh to jmb@strikethree.com.