Picks to Pop

Derek Zumsteg

It's funny to me that no one in the media, even out-of-town media, has the courage to call a team of crappy players a team of crappy players. The Orioles suck. The much-hyped expansion teams are not going to be competitive. The Cubs still suck. It will be good for baseball if these teams fail, because baseball needs to be taught the lesson: you can't believe the hype.

American League

East
1. New York - Why do the Yankees go out and get a third baseman as bad as Scott Brosius, renew Rivera and Jeter for chump change, then throw money at a dubious Cuban prospect and make a brilliant trade for Chuck Knoblauch? Because they can.

2. Boston - That's one shaky rotation behind Pedro, but I like the looks of their hitting, and there's a million starters around the minors who can eat up innings and give up 5-6 runs a game, most of them from Piniella University.

3. Toronto - Jose Cruz can't get on base, can't field, but he sure does hit that ball hard, doesn't he, and that's what people'll talk about as the secret to their success. The real answer: they got rid of old, crappy players and gave that playing time to younger, better players.

4. Baltimore - Hubris.

5. Tampa Bay - Maybe it's just me, but I think expansion teams should avoid signing declining veterans for name recognition and give younger kids a chance to make names for themselves. The majority of this lineup would have trouble hitting a beach ball off a tee. I'll root for them to overtake the Orioles, but honestly I won't be paying attention.

Central
1. Cleveland - I can't believe that GM Hart won't figure out how to put warm bodies in that rotation, and with his offense that'll be enough to win first in this division.

2. Chicago - Schtank. What's Cordero going to contribute anywhere? What did Frank Thomas do to deserve this team? Their win total will be about equal to the number of games Cleveland loses - look for about seventy at best.

3. Detroit - Sure, they got better last year. Not that much better.

4. Kansas City - There's no light, no tunnel.

5. Minnesota - They could give some youngsters some playing time and make their families happy, instead they're extending the career of Otis Nixon and his traveling scrub jamboree.

West
1. Seattle - Should win 95-100 games. The Mariners, despite Lou Piniella's fixation on small baseball, have a simple formula for success: get on base. Repeat. Don't forget their starting four are awesome, but they could replace any one of them with a seltzer bottle and win this division.

2. Anaheim - Tim Salmon is a great player. Garret Anderson sucks. The pitching's average. This is a .500 team if ever I saw one.

3. Texas. Screw Juan Gonzalez - He's an out machine, no more worthy of MVP votes than similarly average players like Greg Gagne. If Will Clark's healthy, he'll continue to smoke doubles and go unnoticed as one of the best first basemen in the league.

4. Oakland - Unlike teams like the Blue Jays, the Athletics have some good young talent, but that's all they have. GM Beane might be able to build a contender in two, three years, because I know the A's farm system teaches plate discipline and OBP, but that's a long way off.

Wild card: Boston.
ALCS Winner: Seattle whups New York, media stunned.
MVP: Ken Griffey, Jr., Seattle.
Cy Young: Randy Johnson, Seattle.
Rookie of the Year: Ben Grieve, Oakland
Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, New York, media satisfied.

National League

East
1. Atlanta - It's easy to forget with their staff of aces that they score a lot of runs. They're a great team, and even signing Weiss/Gallaraga won't knock them from this spot (and will probably bolster the Bad Signing school of GMing).

2. New York - Way behind Atlanta, Al Leiter joins a solid staff supported by a decent offense. 80 to 85 wins.

4. Philadelphia - This placement is in no way meant to overshadow their terrible offense. Curt Schilling is someone I wish got more press -- not only is he a great guy, he's a great player, and they wouldn't have to make up intangibles. What this team really needs is a young superprospect like J.D. Drew, currently held hostage by Scott 'Holdout' Boras.

4. Montreal - Whoops, turns out that wasn't a magic Bottomless Farm System. Our fault.

5. Florida - There's some good talent on this team, but Livan's arm may well fall off, and there's no one else in that rotation.

Central
1. St. Louis - They've got really good pitching, even with Andy Benes gone. Their offense is McGwire, Lankford.

2. Houston - They're a solid team, with some great players in Biggio and Blauser, and good pitching, but like the Cards there's not a lot else.

3. Cincinnati - The only way they're going to be able to get rid of Bret Boone is with cement slippers, if you know what I mean, and Cincinnati isn't Chicago. This conceals the otherwise great offense. Who knows that Nunnally and Stynes both had huge offensive seasons? If you noticed, you must be reading the box scores, because they're not getting any press.

4. Chicago - Replacing terrible players with average-good players isn't the way to a championship, but maybe small children will stop mocking them on the streets. If Chicago combined their teams they'd win 100 games. Separately, they're going nowhere.

5. Pittsburgh - Maybe they'll start well and be lauded again for fielding a competitive team on no payroll, and everyone will feel better about the state of the game.

6. Milwaukee - They're excited about the move to a league where, supposedly, you manufacture runs. Guess what? It's the same game, and they still stink. I'm glad this gang of brawling thugs is out of the AL, though.

West

1. Los Angeles - What a good, deep rotation. I want Konerko to steal Karros' job, but we'll see how open management is to paying Karros for getting splinters in his overpaid rump. Piazza's one of the best hitters of our time, and this offense is good.

2. Colorado - Circus freaks of the National League. They should use a depleted uranium ball (but how would Castilla make the throw to first?). Park effects may inflate Helton's numbers enough to make him the Rookie of the Year (the "Larry Walker Effect"), but that doesn't mean Travis Lee won't deserve it.

3. San Diego - Kevin Brown's a great pitcher, but it's not like he has magic talent dust he can sprinkle around the clubhouse that will turn Gomez and Veras into Rodriguez and Biggio.

4. San Francisco - I, too, would rather be lucky than good, but good's much more loyal season-to-season.

5. Arizona - I'm glad Colangelo loves big contracts, because he's going to be eating them. Travis Lee will be the only good reason to watch this team, but he'll be a really, really good reason.

Wild Card: Colorado.
NLCS Winner: Los Angeles squeaks past Atlanta.
MVP: Mike Piazza, Los Angeles. About freaking time.
Cy Young: Ismael Valdes, Los Angeles.
Rookie of the Year: Travis Lee, Arizona.
Manager of the Year: What's his name in Los Angeles.

World Series: Mariners defeat Los Angeles, 4 games to 3 in an awesome series. Series MVP: Jeff Fassero, who pitches a two-hit shutout and a no hitter.

Derek Zumsteg lives in fear of spending eternity proofreading Bret Easton Ellis novels, and believes that blind allegiance to Will Clark will deliver him. Mail him excerpts from Less Than Zero at dmz@strikethree.com.