A Fan's Faves and Frauds

Benjamin Gregory Ramm

Pre-season picks are easy, if all that you have to do is write a series of team summaries that seem to have more to do with making fans of that team feel good about your publication than with putting a writer's credibility on the line.

My picks, then, are about what I think will happen, not what I believe could happen. However, I do not have the resources to spend my days following every team and every player in baseball, even though I wouldn't mind doing it. My challenge in making picks is the same one that faces the average fan: how can I make accurate picks without devoting my professional life, as well as my personal life, to baseball?

Last year, I spent a significant amount of time and energy trying to figure out how to predict individual games and I did pretty well using two simple and easily available pieces of information:

1) Win-Loss record. How well did a team do the year before? Most teams don't change much over the course of an off-season. Hot-stove league trade talk and last-to-first turn-arounds make for good news stories, but most teams seem to maintain the basis for their success or failure. I do not predict that many teams will change more than one position within their division.

2) Pitching. Hitters make games exciting, but the Vegas opening lines respond to pitching match-ups and are right to do so. My predictions follow my perceptions of the proven strength of a pitching staff almost to the exclusion of looking at a team's offense. Of course I know that offense matters, but I believe that my time is better spent looking into thirty different rotations than thirty different line-ups.

National League

West
1. Atlanta - Duh. A monkey could pick the Braves to win the division, and that may be the extent of my abilities.

2. New York - The only team in the division besides the Braves not to a) stink last year or b) hold a fire sale, they become the second best team in the division by default. Of course it would be possible to do more analysis, but I defy anyone to show me information that would lead me to believe that any of the bottom three teams in the division would overtake the Mets.

3. Philadelphia - Mark Leiter, Mark Portugal, and Curt Schilling are all major league pitchers. They can't possibly be as bad as they were last year, and both the Expos and Marlins took tangible steps to diminish their talent pool.

4. Montreal - Dustin Hermanson has been the only pitcher with more than 10 IPs and an ERA under 4 this spring. Well, that isn't entirely true. Mike Maddux has also been kicking ass and taking names in the Grapefruit league. Please laugh now. I'm sure, however, that Felipe Alou will find some way to gather a few unexpected wins.

5. Florida - Three rookies, a converted reliever, and Livan Hernandez. Ralph Sampson said that he could win the NCAA championship with four dudes from Richmond - I guess that the baseball world will get to see how that sort of thinking works out. For the 1997 Pittsburgh Pirates it seemed to work pretty well. I say that lightning won't strike twice.

Central
In a division that seemed to have its winner backing into a play-off berth last year, your guess is as good as mine. The same story keeps popping up for most of these teams: pitching staffs consisting of pretty good pitchers who have kicked around for a while. There are, however, precious few stars to be found on any of the division's pitching staffs. My analysis says that any one of these teams could finish first or last in the division. My rough intuition, not my analysis, says:

1. St. Louis

2. Houston

3. Cincinnati

4. Pittsburgh

5. Chicago

6. Milwaukee

West
1. Los Angeles - They have to start winning one of these days. Too many of the other teams would have to make unexpected turnarounds. LA is the only team that has to do nothing more than pretty much what they are expected to do to win the division.

2. San Diego - Brown and Hamilton are proven. Ashby is a maybe who has not pitched well during the spring, but did reasonably well last year. Langston and Hitchcock will probably combine to give the Padres a slightly below .500 mark between the two of them; I do not see these two as rising too high or falling too low. There are too many "if 'x' does 'y', then maybe the Padres can accomplish 'z'" for me to pick them to win.

3. San Francisco - The Giants were a fluke last year. Moreover, they burned out their bullpen by July, and then got help from the Chicago Fire Sale and barely won at that. Too much of their rotation seems a bit old for me to believe that they can repeat, but they could be good enough for second, even though I pick them third.

4. Colorado - Their pitching doesn't seem to be healthy again this year, so there's little reason to believe that the Rockies will challenge for a division title. Yes, they have improved their staff, but it won't be enough. By the way, the Astrodome accounts for very little of Darryl Kile's numbers last year. He had a 2.59 ERA at home and 2.55 on the road. The switch to Coors field will hurt, but won't devastate him.

5. Arizona - This rotation contains a lot of payroll. Andy Benes will get his, but the rest of the rotation consists of relatively unproven talent (which is why they were left unprotected) yet showed some promise (which is why they were chosen). In a situation absent of proven ability, I predict that there will be more downward swings than upward swings. I do not see them as atrocious, but I do not see them challenging established teams.

Wild Card: San Diego.
NLCS: Atlanta defeats Los Angeles.

American League

East
1. New York - The Yankees are probably about as good as Baltimore. To settle the tie-breaker, I look at the offensive improvements that NY made (i.e., Chuck Knoblauch) and give NY the slight edge in this division.

2. Baltimore - I doubt that their bullpen will be quite as good as last year's. Their overall pitching, however, should be quite competent. If they win the division, I will not be surprised. If they don't win at least the wild card, I will be surprised.

3. Boston - Pencil in the names of the asses that Pedro Martinez will kick right now. The rest of the team, however, seems less than stable. Guys like Steve Avery, Jim Corsi, John Wasdin, Tim Wakefield, and Derek Lowe all have lower ERAs than Martinez this spring. If the moons of Jupiter align properly, that might continue, and Boston wins the division. I don't see it happening.

4. Toronto - The Jays' pitching should continue to do well. Again, the tie-breaker between Toronto and Boston goes to the offense. When the media previews this team, they quote club officials who hope that Jose Cruz and Shawn Green will live up to their potential. I will not bet on potential bringing a team's offense to competence.

5. Tampa Bay - See Arizona.

Central
1. Cleveland - No ace, but the Tribe seems to be the clear winner, almost by default.

2. Chicago - There are no pitchers here. Yes, there are guys who could develop to their potential, get healthy, or regain their previous form, but that is too many "coulds" to bet on. Amazingly, the Sox are still better than anyone else in the division but Cleveland.

3. Detroit - Give them a few years and/or a little bit of those "ifs" coming together and I wouldn't be terribly surprised by a finish better than third. But not this year. Other than Thompson, their pitchers do not have stellar track records.

4. Kansas City - Appier is already hurt. After him, they have pitchers with "potential" but they were bad last year, did not improve, and should be bad this year.

5. Minnesota - Last year, Minnesota finished 1/2 game ahead of Kansas City. They both had 94 losses. The most significant thing that the Twins did over the off-season was not move to Carolina.

West
1. Seattle - They should be about as good this year as they were last year. Their bullpen improved, but as many key players age, the chance that these guys will lose ability or recover more slowly from injuries increases. Of course, they could stay healthy, lose no ability, and win more than 95 games.

2. Anaheim - If their pitching stays healthy, they will make a run at the Mariners. Unlike the Mariners' staff, the Angels staff does seem to have a history either of injuries or of tiring later in the season, e.g., Jason Dickson's 3.41 pre-All-Star break ERA and his 5.51 post-All-Star mark.

3. Texas - ESPN Magazine points out that the Rangers have three number three starters. Still, if the Rangers and Angels flipped their positions, I would not be surprised.

4. Oakland - "Don't trust anyone over 30" seems to be the motto for the A's position players, but their pitchers show more age than promise.

Wild Card: Baltimore
ALCS: Seattle defeats New York.

World Series: Atlanta defeats Seattle.

Benjamin Gregory Ramm didn't want to predict the 1998 award winners, so we're going to pretend he picked Pete Incaviglia as AL MVP and Mike Maddux as Cy Young (the latter owing to a typo on the ballots). Tell him he'd make a fine sportswriter at bgr@strikethree.com.