I Don't Know: Third Base

Dave Paisley

The hot corner has typically been a source of great offensive production over the years. It looks like that will be true of the National League again this year, but both 1997 and 1998 look fairly dismal in the American. The top six players at the position are all from the senior circuit. Then, once you get past Robin Ventura and John Valentin (projected to take the place of the oft-injured Tim Naehring), the next-best AL third basemen are Joe Randa and Russ Davis, both of whom figure to be only average.

Ken Caminiti, Chipper Jones, Bobby Bonilla, Scott Rolen and Vinny Castilla should all do well again. Compared to his peers, Castilla gets a great deal of benefit from Coors, so I've discounted his OPS by 7% in calculating runs (more on that in another column.)

There were very few aberrant offensive peformances from third last year. Matt Williams' dropoff can be attributed to the distractions of his divorce and subsequent long-distance relationship with his son. Although his problems have been well publicized in the off-season, those of many other players aren't.

We often forget that baseball players have wives and kids and parents and face the same challenges in their lives that the rest of us do. No amount of money can mask the pain of being separated from a loved son, or the death of a close relative. One situation of note last season was Ken Griffey's home run drought in June and July. The death of his mother-in-law occurred right at that time, and the personal distraction surely took its toll. Getting back to Williams, he seems secure and happy now, and should produce for the Diamondbacks, although maybe not for the full five years of his contract.

In Houston, I don't expect Bill Spiers to repeat anything like last year's form over a full season, but he should be adequate. His career stats suggest a platoon with a righty, although Sean Berry isn't the answer.

For the Mets, Edgardo Alfonzo began to establish himself last year, and should consolidate that gain.

A real test of managerial guts will come in Los Angeles, where potential Rookie of the Year Paul Konerko is hidden under the shadow of Todd Zeile at third, and Eric Karros at first. Neither of the veterans are above average, and have very little upside, whereas Konerko has nothing left to prove at AAA. His numbers from Albuquerqe take a big downward translation due to park effects, but he should still be playing instead of Zeile or Karros. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have backed themselves into a corner by signing both veterans to long term deals. Stupid myopia? It looks like they will try to get Konerko into the lineup in left, in place of the weak Todd Hollandsworth. Of all the options, this would at least put the best three players of those four into the lineup.

Of the veterans, note that Cal Ripken is beginning to fade offensively. Even his five-year OPS of .763 is barely adequate for this position, and he was off 5% from that last year. Only a relatively weak group of AL third basemen makes him still look adequate at the plate. As for Ed Sprague, take my third baseman - please. He should have been put out to pasture long ago. If his shoulder is healed he may not be totally embarrassing, but 1996 sure looks more like a fluke than a promise of things to come. Tom Evans will probably be starting no later than mid-May.

And what were the Yankees thinking, signing Scott Brosius? Hoping he can recapture his (for him) magical 1996 season is a pipe dream. He is just as likely to recapture the dreck that was 1997, with its .576 OPS. He has the potential to make Charlie Hayes look like Frank Thomas.

One player I'll be keeping tabs on this season will be Wade Boggs. Playing every day with the Devil Rays, he should get the at-bats to have a shot at 3,000 hits this season. It'll be a long shot for Boggs to do it in one season, but the publicity for the Rays will be worth it, so they'll give him every chance. Face it, there won't be any other reason to watch them in September this year.

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