Second Sack:
Not a Wack Pack, Jack

Dave Paisley

2B or not 2B? That is the question. Second base is a key defensive position usually played by a guy who carries a real light bat. Based on last year's performance, 1998's projected starting second basemen are collectively the second-least offensive position in MLB (or the second-most offensive if you're unfortunate enough to watch the likes of Mark Lemke at the plate.) The only bunch of weaker hitters are the shortstops.

In the AL, however, the days of the shrimpy underachiever at the plate seem numbered. Alomar, Knoblauch and Valentin are a real collective force, and you can add to that the resurgence of Joey Cora and Damion Easley. Baltimore fans can be glad I didn't throw in new "infield insurance policy" Ozzie Guillen, just to frighten them. If Alomar continues to be nagged by injuries, Bordick and Guillen would be one mighty light-hitting middle infield.

Speaking of infield insurance, the Red Sox injury jinx seems likely to cost them some offense from second. If they still plan on having John Valentin play third in pace of the injured Tim Naehring, then second base becomes even more critical with the loss of Jeff Frye. Conventional baseball wisdom dictates hiring a veteran free agent. Why settle for a youthfully inexperienced shabby performer (who can only get better) when you can pay big bucks for a veteran shabby performer? I really don't see the point in dragging in the likes of Greg Gagne, Mark Lemke or Jody Reed for more money and less production than one can get out of Arquimedez Pozo. It does appear, however, that the Red Sox are seriously considering just that. If Duquette does sign one of the veterans, will they make him take a sobriety test? And will he fail eight times?

Last year, Seattle's Li'l Joey Cora bulked up in the off-season (to 165 lb) and rode an insanely great May to an above-average season at the plate. His throws to first are another story, though, best reserved for the next movie in the Indiana Jones series: "It's not just a routine play, it's an adventure!"

Damion Easley came from out of nowhere with 22 taters in 1997. Although his previous best HR total was 6, last year's pace was only about double his prior career rate, as he had almost twice as many at-bats as his previous career high. It's still a big surprise, however.

To balance all that production in the AL, I hear you thinking, the NL must be pretty bad. Despite the heroics of Craig Biggio and, to a lesser extent, Mike Lansing, second sackers were dead last in Senior Circuit offense. The 1998 numbers are dragged down by a slew of younger players who may get a chance to start this year, so the numbers can be deceptive. Orlando Cabrera, Tony Batista and Kevin Sefcik will get opportunities to play, as none of them figure to be on competitive teams.

Overall, most individual second basemen fall very close to the MLB average, with just a few exceptional highs and lows.

Players to watch: Carlos Baerga, to see if he can halt the slide in his career. Damion Easley, to see if he can continue last year's performance. To a lesser degree, the same goes for Delino DeShields and Joey Cora.
 

Team	Name	Age	G	AB	HR	RBI	R	OBP	SLG	AVE	OPS	OPS5	Diff  OPS	'98 OPS	RC	NR
Hou	Craig Biggio	32	162	619	22	81	146	.415	.501	.309	.916	.868	6%	.900	95	24
Bal	Roberto Alomar	30	112	412	14	60	64	.390	.500	.333	.890	.877		.880	92	21
Bos	John Valentin	31	143	575	18	77	95	.372	.499	.306	.871	.860		.850	88	17
Col	Mike Lansing	30	144	572	20	70	86	.338	.472	.281	.810	.738	10%	.820	75	4
Det	Damion Easley	28	151	527	22	72	97	.362	.471	.264	.833	.721	16%	.800	80	9
NYY	Chuck Knoblauch	29	156	611	9	58	117	.390	.411	.291	.801	.842	-5%	.800	80	9
Ana	Randy Velarde *	35	136	530	14	54	82	.372	.426	.285	.798	.790		.780	77	6
SF	Jeff Kent	30	155	580	29	121	90	.316	.472	.250	.788	.784		.780	77	6
Sea	Joey Cora	33	149	574	11	54	105	.359	.441	.300	.800	.743	8%	.770	76	5
Bos	Jeff Frye	31	127	404	3	51	56	.352	.433	.312	.785	.743	4%	.770	76	6
KC	Jed Hansen	25	34	94	1	14	11	.394	.426	.309	.820	-		.750	73	2
Tex	Luis Alicea	32	128	388	5	37	59	.375	.369	.253	.744	.749		.750	73	2
Stl	Delino DeShields	29	150	572	11	58	92	.357	.448	.295	.805	.711	13%	.750	73	2
Atl	Tony Graffanino	26	104	186	8	20	33	.344	.446	.258	.790	.731	8%	.750	73	2
LA	Eric Young	31	155	622	8	61	106	.359	.397	.280	.756	.785	-4%	.750	73	2
NYM	Carlos Baerga	29	133	467	9	52	53	.311	.396	.281	.707	.780	-9%	.750	73	2
Tor	Tony Fernandez	36	120	409	11	44	55	.323	.423	.286	.746	.736		.740	71	0
ChN	Mickey Morandini	32	150	553	1	39	83	.371	.380	.295	.751	.720	4%	.730	70	-1
ChA	Ray Durham	26	155	634	11	53	106	.337	.382	.271	.719	.695	3%	.710	67	-4
Min	Brent Gates	28	65	151	3	20	18	.298	.351	.238	.649	.700	-7%	.700	66	-5
Oak	Scott Spiezio	25	147	538	14	65	58	.300	.388	.243	.688	.704		.700	66	-5
TB	Bubba Trammell	26	44	123	4	13	14	.307	.366	.228	.673	-		.700	66	-5
Cle	Enrique Wilson	22	5	15	0	1	2	.333	.333	.333	.666	-		.700	66	-5
Pit	Tony Womack	28	155	641	6	50	85	.326	.374	.278	.700	.698		.700	66	-5
SD	Quilvio Veras	27	145	539	3	45	74	.357	.328	.265	.685	.719	-5%	.700	66	-5
Cin	Damian Jackson	24	20	36	2	4	8	.293	.389	.194	.682	-		.700	66	-5
Mil	Fernando Vina	29	79	324	4	28	37	.312	.361	.275	.673	.699	-4%	.700	66	-5
Fla	Luis Castillo	22	75	263	0	8	27	.310	.270	.240	.580	.597	-3%	.700	66	-5
Phi	Kevin Sefcik	27	61	119	2	6	11	.298	.345	.269	.643	.671	-4%	.650	58	-13
Az	Tony Batista	24	68	188	4	18	22	.265	.330	.202	.595	.700	-15%	.650	58	-13
Free	Greg Gagne	36	144	514	9	57	49	.298	.354	.251	.652	.694	-6%	.650	58	-12
Free	Mark Lemke	32	109	351	2	26	33	.306	.316	.245	.622	.668	-7%	.640	57	-13
Free	Jody Reed	35	52	112	0	8	6	.278	.214	.196	.492	.668	-26%	.600	51	-19
Mon	Orlando Cabrera	23	16	18	0	2	4	.263	.222	.222	.485	-		.600	51	-20
	Average	28	111	395	9	42	60	.337	.395	.270	.732	.742			71

All stats 97 unless noted.

Stats Glossary
G - Games played
AB - At-Bats
BA - Batting Average (Hits/At-Bats)
OBP - On Base Percentage (total times on base/plate appearance)
SLG - Slugging Percentage (total bases/At-Bats)
OPS - OBP + SLG
OPS5 - 5-year (or career if less) average OPS
Diff OPS - Difference between '97 OPS and OPS5
'98 OPS - Dave's projected OPS for '98
RC - Runs Created ([R+RBI]/2 predicted from OPS 98 based on 550 AB)
NR - Net Runs (RC - Average RC)

Dave Paisley spends all too much time creating Excel spreadsheets in order to better chart the Umpires Annoyed Average of the Phillie Phanatic. Help him ease into real life at drdjp@strikethree.com.