NL Rookie Rhubarb

Jason Michael Barker

Much like Grandma's kitchen, the National League is well stocked with up-and-coming rookies. I mean, Grandma's kitchen is usually well stocked, but with baked goods and other assorted foodstuffs. If your grandma's kitchen is stocked with top prospects, I know several GMs who would like to get in touch with her. Drop me an e-mail at jmb@strikethree.com.

What was my point again? Oh yeah...as I was saying, the Senior circuit is home to some of baseball's top prospects. The National League West alone has three of the top first base prospects this season in Travis Lee, Todd Helton, and Paul Konerko.

Carl Pavano, RHP, Montreal

 

Year	Team	League	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	ERA
1996	Trenton	AA	27	26	6	195	154	66	54	16	47	146	16	5	0	2.63
1997	Pawtucket	AAA	23	23	3	161.2	148	62	56	13	34	147	11	6	0	3.12

Baseball's top pitching prospect. Period. Pavano moved quickly through the Red Sox organization after being drafted in the 13th round in 1994. He's big (6'5", 230), young (22), throws 95 mph, and has excellent control to boot (81 walks in 346.2 AA-AAA innings over the last two years). After an unimpressive first two seasons, the young right-hander was named the Eastern League's pitcher of the year in 1996, and the International League's top prospect in 1997. A hard slider and above average changeup compliment his heater.

Pavano has improved each of the last two seasons. All he has left to prove is that he can pitch in the majors. He's ready. The prize in the Pedro Martinez bidding war, Pavano projects as Montreal's #3 starter this year, behind Dustin Hermanson and Carlos Perez. (Side note: Surprise! Les Expos have the makings of a good young rotation in Hermanson [age 25], Perez [27] and Pavano. But don't get too excited, Expo fans -- Perez has been the subject of trade rumors this off-season.)


Travis Lee, 1B, Arizona

Year	Team	League	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
1996		Did not play professionally
1997	High Desert	A+	61	226	82	18	1	18	63	63	36	47	0.363	0.473	0.690
	Tuscon	AAA	59	227	68	16	2	14	42	46	46	31	0.300	0.387	0.573

The Diamondbacks shelled out $10 million for Lee back in 1996, and he has yet to show them they overpaid for his services. His sweet left-handed swing has been compared to that of Mark Grace, but Lee generates much more power than Grace ever did. Lee's short, quick stroke produced 32 home runs last season, his first as a pro, between A and AAA. He struggled against left-handed pitching once he reached AAA, but he's young and will learn to hit lefties.

An often overlooked aspect of Lee's game is his defense - he has a strong arm and is agile around the bag. He played centerfield in college, and is quick enough to play a corner outfield spot in the majors. He also runs better than most, if not all, first basemen.

Lee is as close to a "can't miss" prospect as they come. He is in an ideal situation with expansion Arizona, who will run him out to first base in 150 games in 1998 and not worry if he struggles, although no one expects him to. This is your leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year honors.


Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado

Year	Team	League	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
1996	New Haven	AA	93	319	106	24	2	7	46	51	51	37	0.332	0.425	0.486
	Col. Springs	AAA	21	71	25	4	1	2	13	13	11	12	0.352	0.439	0.521
1997	Col. Springs	AAA	99	392	138	31	2	16	87	88	61	68	0.352	0.434	0.564
	Colorado	NL	35	93	26	2	1	5	13	11	8	11	0.280	0.337	0.484

Not to be outdone by divisional rival Arizona, the Rockies boast a first base prospect of their own in Todd Helton. The left-handed Helton began 1997 at AAA Colorado Springs (playing in Coors Field-lite), hitting .352/.434/.546 with 16 home runs in 99 games. His September call-up produced less stellar numbers, but Helton held his own against major league pitching. He may be slightly overrated due to the park effects in both Colorado Springs and Colorado, but he's still a good hitter, although not nearly as polished as Travis Lee.

With Andres Galarraga gone to the Braves, Helton looks to take over the everyday first base duties in Colorado, although he has shown he has the athleticism to play both corner outfield positions. Wherever he ends up playing, Helton looks to be an offensive force, especially in hitter-friendly Coors Field.


Dennis Reyes, LHP, Los Angeles

Year	Team	League	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	ERA
1996	San Bernadino	A+	29	28	0	166	166	106	77	11	77	176	11	12	0	4.17
1997	San Antonio	AA	12	12	1	80.1	79	33	27	6	28	66	8	1	0	3.02
	Albuquerque	AAA	10	10	1	57.1	70	40	36	4	33	45	6	3	0	5.65
	Los Angeles	NL	14	5	0	47	51	21	20	4	18	36	2	3	0	3.83

When Ismael Valdes went on the disabled list last season, Reyes arrived on the scene and pitched quite well in five starts. The 21-year-old left hander has come a long way in a short time -  in 1996 he was pitching in A-ball, and by the end of the next season he was starting for the Dodgers. Reyes began his 1997 campaign at AA San Antonio, where he pitched well in 12 starts before moving up to AAA Albuquerque. AAA was much more difficult on Reyes, who posted a 5.65 ERA in ten starts, albeit in a hitters league.

Reyes, who relies primarily on a cut fastball and curveball while occasionally turning over a changeup or two, must improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio if he wants to be successful at the big league level. If he can do that, he should be a fixture in the Dodgers rotation for years to come. Right now he's still good enough to be LA's fifth starter. Don't overlook the following intangible: Reyes is a dead ringer for his idol, former Dodger star Fernando Valenzuela.

Paul Konerko, 1B/3B, Los Angeles

Year	Team	League	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
1996	San Antonio	AA	133	470	141	23	2	29	78	86	72	85	0.300	0.397	0.543
	Albuquerque	AAA	4	14	6	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	0.429	0.467	0.643
1997	Albuquerque	AAA	130	483	156	31	1	37	97	127	64	61	0.323	0.407	0.621
	Los Angeles	NL	6	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.143	0.250	0.143

Konerko was named Baseball America's 1997 Minor League Player of the Year (in addition to Pacific Coast League MVP), and looking at his numbers it's easy to see why - 37 homers, 127 RBI in 130 games, and more walks than strikeouts. There is no question that Konerko can hit, but where he is best suited to play in the field remains to be seen. Third base has been his primary position throughout his pro career, although his defense at the hot corner is not exactly major league caliber. He will probably end up playing first base in the majors, where, like Frank Thomas, he will still be a defensive liability. But also like Thomas, his bat should more than make up for his defensive shortcomings.

Do the Dodgers have room for Konerko on their opening day roster? He certainly deserves to be there, with nothing left to prove in the minors. But with veteran Todd Zeile and the overrated Eric Karros blocking him at third and first respectively, Konerko will have trouble cracking the starting lineup, barring a trade of either of those two players. For now, he may have to settle for being the most highly touted pinch-hitter in baseball.


Derrek Lee, 1B, Florida

Year	Team	League	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
1996	Memphis	AA	134	500	140	39	2	34	98	104	65	170	0.280	0.360	0.570
1997	Las Vegas	AAA	125	472	153	29	2	13	86	64	60	116	0.324	0.399	0.477
	San Diego	NL	22	54	14	3	0	1	9	4	9	24	0.259	0.365	0.370

Yet another first base prospect. The "other" Lee began last year at AAA Las Vegas in the San Diego organization with high expectations, coming off of a Southern League (AA) MVP. Unfortunately, despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he unexpectedly hit 21 fewer home runs than he did in 1996, and lost nearly 100 points of slugging percentage.

Lee did improve in other areas last season, however. He struck out less (from an embarrassing 170 down to 116), showed some speed by stealing 17 bases in 20 attempts, and raised his on-base percentage nearly 40 points. He also held his own against big league pitching while filling in for an injured Wally Joyner during a brief call-up early in the season, posting a .365 OBP, although he struck out in over half of his at-bats.

With the Padres picking up Joyner's 1998 option, Lee looked to be stuck in the minors for another year (but hey, how bad can it be? It's Vegas, baby! Vegas!). Then he was traded, along with young flame-thrower Rafael Medina, to Florida for Kevin Brown, where he'll be the Marlins' regular first baseman. Lee is a big (6'5", 220), strong guy, has hit at every level, and he should do well in 1998. He'll probably always be overshadowed by Travis Lee, and deservedly so. But really, Travis (except for his advantage of hitting left-handed) isn't THAT much better than Derrek.

Jason Michael Barker, a strapping young lad himself, will be following MLB's top rookie prospects all season long for strikethree.com. Tell him how upset you are at his omission of Giomar Guevara at jmb@strikethree.com