Dave's House o' Predictions 1998

Dave Paisley

There's nothing better than predetermining the fate of a bunch of zillionaires, and that's exactly what Dave's House o' Predictions is all about.

Over the past few weeks, I've sliced and diced all thirty teams, put them under the microscope and examined them in the kind of detail that's normally reserved for  the work of FBI Agent Dana Scully. You never saw such clinical detail. At least I'd like to think that.

Sure, the thought processes of many major league general managers may seem like they're of extra-terrestrial origin, but maybe there's a method to their madness. If so, I was determined to root it out. Sadly, no evidence exists. The morons appear to be genuine, earthly morons. Even Pat Gillick. Especially Pat Gillick.

I examined the projected starting lineups of all thirty teams, assessed their strengths and weaknesses, and in many cases even their bank accounts. Then I projected what kind of year each player should have, and how the team should perform as a whole. Each team's page contains their 1997 performance followed by a projection of 1998. For position players, that meant predicting an OPS (On base percentage Plus Slugging percentage), and for pitchers an ERA. These are listed as 98 OPS and 98 ERA. I used these numbers to generate a composite team OPS and team ERA.

I then used my handy runs scored and allowed meter to project net runs, and consequently a win/loss record for each team. Net runs is usually accurate to within about five wins a season, except for freak teams like the1997 Giants, who were outscored overall but managed to win 90 games. That kind of peformance is a one-in-a-thousand kind of aberration, so if my other predictions hold up, the records you see projected here should be within plus or minus about five wins of the teams' actual records.

The results are as follows. In my own defense, I can tell you that my primary allegiances are to the Mariners and the Expos, and that they fall at the opposite ends of the predictions spectrum, so I like to think I have been relatively unbiased.

Lineups are, of course, subject to change for numerous reasons, and I don't expect that teams will look just like this come opening day. If they do, though, you know what to expect.

Comments, compliments, brickbats, and large sums of cash are all welcome at drdjp@strikethree.com

American League
East	Central	West
Yankees 96-66	Indians 91-71	Mariners 103-59
Good balance of offense and defense.	Pitching is suspect. Offense will rock.	Great offense, better bullpen than last year.
Red Sox 91-71	White Sox 72-90	Rangers 84-78
Much more consistent pitching than last year's nightmare.	Pitching and lack of hitting from the lower ranks are the weaknesses.	Pretty average pitching. Slightly better offense.
Blue Jays 87-75	Tigers 69-93	Angels 80-82
Improvement in offense begins to match pitching.	Lack of offense dooms Tigers to a relapse.	Dictionary definition of average.
Orioles 87-75	Royals 67-95	A's 76-86
Offense takes a step backwards, pitching can't be as good as last year.	Worst AL offense and average pitching hurts.	Pitching creeping up on acceptable. Offense OK.
Devil Rays 64-98	Twins 67-95
Typical expansion woes.	Almost worse offense than Royals, worse pitching.

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National League
East	Central	West (up 3/11)
Braves 104-58	Cardinals 94-68	Rockies 92-70
The pitching rolls on. And the offense. Yada yada yada. Yaaawwn.	Pitching propels cards to Central title.	Rockies can win with better pitching at Coors.
Mets 82-80	Astros 87-75	Dodgers 91-71
Good try, but not enough horses.	Will have to dig deep to catch Cards.	Close race and good enough for the wild card. Ismael Valdes wins the CY?
Phillies 72-92	Reds 85-77	Giants 82-80
An improvement, but not much. Punchless offense.	Surprise team of the year? Best NL offense outside Coors.	The record they should have had last year. No over-achieving this year.
Marlins 66-96	Cubs 77-85	Padres 81-81
First to (equal) worst. At least it's cheap.	Pitching lets the Cubs down. Sosa and Rodriguez are not the answer offensively.	Top 3 starters are great, others are suspect. Offense only average due to the likes of Greg Vaughn.
Expos 66-96	Brewers 76-86	Diamondbacks 71-91
The prospect merry-go-round finally comes to a screeching halt.	Who wants a Bud in Miller town? Brewers are flat on their butts in their new division.	Not too shabby for an expansion team. Offense lacks punch, however.
	Pirates 70-92
	Two steps back for the budget busting poster boys.