Prospecting for Gold:
The Phuture is Now

Dan Troy

(This is the fifth in Dan Troy's offseason farm reports.)

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies possess two excellent pitching prospects, a couple of interesting hitters and little else right now. The team is obviously committed to stocking the big-league club for the opening of their new stadium, and they aren't too worried about swapping a prospect (e.g., Taylor Buchholz) or losing draft picks through free-agent compensation. There's a time and a place for win-now strategies, of course, but it sure makes prospect watching a little dull.

Cole Hamels is one of the few pitching prospects that can match up well against Scott Kazmir. Indeed, he was clearly superior to Kazmir in the SAL this year, allowing fewer home runs (0 to 6), striking batters out at a higher rate (13.9 to 12.4), walking fewer (3.0 to 3.3), and allowing fewer hits (3.9 to 5.9). Yet another 19-year-old stud LHP to reckon with. Hamels' best offering is a very deceptive changeup that he can locate for strikes and which nicely complements a solid fastball and curve. He continued to pitch well upon promotion to the FSL, and he may be on track for Philadelphia before the end of 2005.

Gavin Floyd gets high grades from scouts for his, at times, dominating three-pitch arsenal. His curveball, in particular, wins raves. He was slowed at points this year by injuries and mechanical glitches, but looked very good by the end of the year. His season totals in Clearwater were solid if unspectacular, but I'm inclined to trust the scouts on the 20-year old's potential.

Ryan Madson is a towering RHP who gets hitters out primarily with a good curveball and changeup, and he continued his progress to the majors with a fine AAA season in Scranton. He's definitely a pitchability and command pitcher, and he looks like a potential mid- or backend-rotation guy.

Josh Hancock was the booty from the Jeremy Giambi trade. Never a top prospect, Hancock was basically an average pitcher in the International League this year.

Ryan Howard is highly thought of by the Phillies, so much so that he was reportedly considered untouchable during the recent Billy Wagner haggling with Houston. While there's undeniable power in his bat, a 23-year-old first baseman who strikes out in 30 percent of his A-ball at-bats is far from certain to be a successful major leaguer. The year-over-year drop in his walk rate is also troubling.

Chase Utley certainly didn't set the world on fire in his major-league trial this year, but I believe his minor-league performance indicates he just needs a little time. I don't think he'll have a great OBP, but he should hit with good power for an infielder. He's ready for a job.

Jorge Padilla's second shot at AA certainly went better than his first. His walk rate was much improved, though the power potential many scouts see in his frame hasn't quite materialized yet. Power, of course, can be late developing, but having just turned 24, the clock is ticking on him.

Anderson Machado, a good defensive shortstop, didn't help his prospect status much by hitting .196 in his second time through the Eastern League. Reportedly, personal issues may have negatively impacted his performance. His walk rate was excellent, but it's hard to see him as anything more than a utility guy at this point.

Jake Blalock has a larger, stronger frame than his big brother, and that shows in his solid power numbers (.199 ISO, extra-base hits in over 13 percent of his at-bats). But he struck out at a fairly alarming rate (31 percent of those at-bats), which should dampen expectations about his ability to advance quickly.

I don't like to read too much into a player's first couple of hundred at-bats, but third baseman Kiel Fisher certainly hit like a prospect worth watching in 2003. Splitting time between the GCL and the NYPL, he walked 31 times and flashed some extra-base-hit potential. Let's see how he handles full-season ball before getting too excited, though.

about the author

Dan Troy is the inventor of the E-Z Batting Tutor, which teaches proper hitting technique using a system of large rubber bands, three mounted bazookas, and live rabid ferrets. Ask how it can improve your son's Little League batting average at dt@strikethree.com.