Prospecting for Gold:
The Postseason Edition

Dan Troy

It is universally acknowledged that when the calendar turns to October, a young man's thoughts rightly turn to Major League Baseball's playoffs. I see little point in writing detailed prospect analyses at a time when all eyes will be focused on the present rather than the future. What I'll do instead is talk a little bit about some rookies who could play key roles in their team's playoff fortunes, and provide a few unsolicited and certainly incorrect playoff musings.

Starting in November, I'll begin division-by-division looks at the strengths of every organization's farm system, leading up to a list of the game's top prospects for the 2004 season. I'll pipe in a couple of times during October with some more playoff ramblings, because I won't be able to resist. In the meantime, who needs March Madness?

Oakland Athletics

I thought Rich Harden was the best pitching prospect in the game before the year started, and he's yet to do anything to make me sour on him. Has the potential to be the fourth ace of the Oakland rotation. To the extent the Mulderless A's need a fourth starter, he's it, and he'll likely need to win a couple of games if the A's are to make it all the way. He may also see some action from the bullpen. Harden combines serious smoke with a dive-bombing forkball/splitter. This combo allows him to rack up both Ks and ground balls, which is a great formula for success. His control thus far hasn't been great, and that could be a problem, particularly out of the pen.

Florida Marlins

No team will rely more on rookie contributions than the Marlins. Say, have you heard about some guy with a quirky delivery named Dontrelle Willis? I don't know why ESPN doesn't give him more attention. Okay, seriously, Willis had a terrific debut season for Florida, helping bring them to the dance. He was a control artist in the minors and has maintained his strong K:BB ratio in the National League (2.42). He's deceptively fast, and does a great job of locating his fastball, curveball, and changeup. As of this writing, he's scheduled to pitch Game 4 against San Francisco.

Miguel Cabrera absolutely exploded in AA this year, scorching the Southern League to the tune of .365/.429/.609 in 266 at-bats. The Marlins called him up just three games into his defensive transition from third base to the outfield. The 20-year-old acquitted himself admirably in his debut, posting a .795 OPS while slamming 36 extra-base hits in 313 at-bats. With the return of Mike Lowell, Cabrera will man the outfield for Florida, and will likely need to provide some big hits if the Marlins are to repeat their 1997 miracle. Regardless of how he performs in the playoffs, I think he'll terrorize National League pitchers in the not-too-distant future.

New York Yankees

There's been a lot of debate over whether or not Hideki Matsui, a 10-year veteran of professional Japanese baseball, is a true rookie and worthy of the Rookie of the Year award. Well, as far as I can see the rules clearly identify him as a rookie, yet he pretty clearly does not deserve the award (Angel Berroa gets my vote). Regardless, Matsui has been an important part of the Yankees' lineup this year, posting a respectable .786 OPS and playing strong OF defense. One concern: he seems to have slowed down quite a bit in the second half. Only 12 of his 42 doubles have been hit since the All-Star break, and he's hit only .266/.344/.411 over that time.

Jose Contreras, on the other hand, seems to be heating up at just the right time. Indeed, he has dominated most of his late-season outings, with the exception of a notable late-August pounding at the hands of Boston. He pitched 35.2 innings in September, striking out 35 while walking 12, surrendering only 22 hits, and compiling a tiny 1.51 ERA. I think he can help the Yankees if Joe Torre lets him.

San Francisco Giants

Like you, I was stunned to learn that the Giants field a competitive nine beyond Barry Bonds. If you quibbled with my earlier suggestion that Rich Harden was the game's best pitching prospect entering the season, that may have been because you preferred Jerome Williams or Jesse Foppert. Foppert, of course, is done for the year and likely the next due to injury, but Williams will start important games for the Giants. While he's been overshadowed by Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis (against whom he's currently scheduled to pitch in Game 4), Williams has had a fine rookie season. In 131 innings, he fanned 88 while walking a modest 49, giving up only 10 HR and finishing the year with a fine 3.30 ERA. He has a fluid motion and throws in the low 90s without a lot of effort, and has shown a lot of confidence in his fine curveball. Not bad at all for a 21-year-old.

Chicago Cubs

I'd write about Hee Seop Choi, but do you really think Dusty Baker will play a rookie when veteran HACKING MASS favorite Randall Simon is available? Me, neither.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins appear to have any number of young outfielders who could contribute positively if called upon, but with an outfield that appears set with Hunter, Jones, and Stewart, will that call ever come? Actually, the best prospect they have is 1B Justin Morneau, but he will not be on the postseason roster. Michael Cuddyer has shown a lot of promise in his minor-league career, hitting for the most part with both patience and pop. He may be called upon for some key at bats against LHP during the postseason. Long term, I think he'd make someone a very solid right fielder, though who knows if that will be in Minnesota?

If Cuddyer doesn't get the chance, it may go to Lew Ford instead. Ford probably could start for some MLB teams, though he's not likely to be a star. While he has few outstanding strengths, he likewise has few weaknesses. He's just a well-rounded offensive player whose relatively hot bat may have earned him some trust from Ron Gardenhire.

Atlanta Braves

While the Braves haven't developed a lot of high-end pitchers in recent years, they have an almost eerie ability to produce serviceable cogs for their staff. It seems like whenever you turn around, the Braves call up some guy you know very little about who performs just fine. Horacio Ramirez fits that role this year. Like Damian Moss last year, Ramirez is a LHP that has thrown about 180 quality innings and won 12 games without the aid of a lot of Ks or notably good control. It's time to say publicly what should by now be common knowledge: Mazzone is a witch.

Boston Red Sox

If anyone believes there's a rookie that will have a significant postseason impact for the Sox, you obviously know something I don't. No, I don't think Andy Abad counts.

Playoff Thoughts: The numbers show pretty clearly that postseason outcomes, while not completely random, are pretty darn close to it. The better team is a little more likely to win, but not by enough to make predictions with any confidence. I'd urge everyone to view the postseason for what it is: an enjoyable tournament that provides a satisfying conclusion to the season, but does not one that definitively identifies the best team. With that said, I feel free to pretend I never wrote the following, unless, of course, it turns out to be right.

It sure looks to me like the Yankees have the strongest team in baseball, and ought to be the favorite in any series. They feature a deep and potent lineup, a legitimate ace in Mussina, rotational depth, and one of the game's strongest relievers in Mariano Rivera. No other team seems to quite measure up so well. Of course, we could have said much the same last year. The Twins' offense has been clicking, but it's hard to imagine the likes of Radke and Lohse slowing the Yankees down. To win, Minnesota will have to knock the Yankee starters out of the box and pick on the lesser lights in the bullpen. This series has the highest sweep potential of any first-round series. Yankees in 3.

The Red Sox' relentless lineup and the prospect of two starts by Pedro Martinez make them appear to be prohibitive favorites over the A's. Some very good A's teams have lost in the first round to weaker teams in recent years, and I think it would be poetic justice if they were finally able to procure a little postseason luck to get past Boston. It's hard to pick a team with so many easy outs in the lineup to win, though, especially with one of the Big Three on the sidelines. Ted Lilly has pitched well lately, but it can't make the Oakland faithful thrilled to see a left-handed fly ball pitcher scheduled for a start in Fenway. Boston in 5.

How many strikes will Bonds see in this series against the Marlins? About the same number as the HR he'll hit. It's a little mysterious to me that the Giants have won 100 games. Are there any standouts in the lineup other than Bonds? They've gotten better-than-expected production from the Snow/Galarraga platoon, and Alfonzo has picked it up toward the season's end, but still... Jason Schmidt has emerged as an ace and Williams has been solid. The addition of Ponson gives them somebody else to slot in front of Rueter, which is good. Except I'm not sure Alou understands who his top three starters are. I think they ought to get by the Marlins, but I see no reason to be surprised if the relatively well-balanced Marlins team pulls off an upset of a decent but overrated team. Giants in 5.

Dominant Pitching vs. Dominant Offense. Greg Maddux's Braves vs. Slammin' Sammy's Cubs, right? Not exactly. I guess the Braves got tired of leading the world in pitching without gaining much in the way of rings to show for it, and they've decided to slug their opponents to oblivion instead. Indeed, if you factor in ballparks and the DH, the Braves' offense is almost as good as that of the more heralded Red Sox. The Cubs, meanwhile, provide Sosa ­ who's coming off his worst season since 1997 ­ with meager offensive support. Chicago's strong suit is it's front-line starting pitching, most notably, of course, the brilliant Mark Prior. My sense is the bats will overcome the arms in this one, as I'm a little concerned about the workloads of the Cub starters. Braves in 4.

about the author

In all fairness, Dan Troy submitted this article before Game One of the Yankees-Twins series. Tell him to be glad the editor didn't wait until the end of the Division Series altogether at dt@strikethree.com.