Prospecting for Gold:
Prospect of the Year 2003

Dan Troy

At the time I reluctantly agreed—or shamelessly begged, depending on whom you ask—to cover the wacky world of prospects for this site, I had given very little thought to the subjects of defining a prospect-of-the-year honor, the farm system of the St. Louis Cardinals, or how Lyndon Johnson managed to so quickly seize power in a US Senate that had previously been a sclerotic body governed slavishly by seniority. Readers will be happy to know that I'm now well up to speed on LBJ's rise to power after reading Robert A. Caro's Master of the Senate, which is part 3 of a planned 4-volume work entitled "The Years of Lyndon Johnson." The other stuff may take some time.

Actually, I have given it some thought (Prospect of the Year, that is, not the Cardinals) and have come up with some criteria. One thing the honor clearly is not is the minor league player of the year, which would force me to consider a bunch of 28-year olds for the honor. Guys like Graham Koonce are too old to be considered big-time prospects, which isn't at all to suggest that he and others of his ilk couldn't be useful at the big-league level, but a big part of the fun of examining prospects is to find the game's future stars, not its future platoon first basemen.

The honor should not necessarily go to the best prospect in the game. A great prospect can have a year with numbers insufficiently gaudy to qualify. For example, David Wright and Andy Marte may be the two best third-base prospects in the game, but these young players didn't quite hammer out the kind of jaw-dropping megastats that seem appropriate for a Prospect of the Year honor.

Similarly, while there are a few impressive young pitchers who appear to be on the path to stardom (Greg Miller, Scott Kazmir, and Cole Hamels, to name three), it's hard to give the honor to a guy that didn't pitch much more than 100 or 110 innings. Certainly, these guys will figure prominently in my list of top prospects—due any time between now and the end of March—but they're not gonna make the winner's circle this year.

I do think the term minor league ought to mean something, too. The honor should go to a guy that spent almost the whole season in the minor leagues, though a few weeks at the end of the year and/or a September call-up won't count against them. For example, I think that Miguel Cabrera and Rich Harden, as much as I like them, are ineligible, as they've spent too much time on major-league rosters. They'll just have to console themselves with the better meal money they're collecting, though I'm sure they'd prefer to win Strikethree.com's honor. Tough luck, guys.

So, I guess what I'm really looking for here is some combination of a player who is a legit prospect, put up astounding numbers, and spent most of the year in the minor leagues. Knowledge of Lyndon Johnson's senatorial career is not necessary, though it may garner them bonus points at the discretion of the author. Jennifer Lopez, of course, will hand out the honor at Strikethree.com's annual awards banquet, to be held once again in the Puyallup basement of some vague relation of Michael Cox. Black tie is optional, but strongly recommended. Hope to see you there. The nominees are:

Josh Barfield had a season that ought to make his dad, ex-slugger Jesse Barfield, proud. Playing second base for high-A Lake Elsinore, he tattooed California League pitching to the tune of .337/.389/.530 and led the circuit with 128 RBIs. 36 percent of the 20-year-old's 185 hits went for extra bases, including 16 home runs. Gaudy numbers indeed, though a little less gaudy when you consider the friendly hitting environment he plays in, that his walk rate was just okay, and that it isn't clear whether he can actually stay at second for the long haul. He personifies the San Diego's bat first/glove second drafting philosophy.

There's little doubt that the A's brain trust feels a little better about Miguel Tejada's impending departure after watching Bobby Crosby put it all together in AAA Sacramento. While playing solid defense, the 23-year-old SS put his bat speed to good use, cranking out 22 home runs along the way to a .308/.395/.544 season. An impressive 41 percent of hits went for extra bases and he walked 63 times against 110 Ks in 465 at bats. As I wrote in an earlier article, the PCL is generally a very favorable hitting environment, which you would think would overstate Crosby's performance. However, Sacramento isn't exactly a launching pad. Indeed, it's a fairly pitcher friendly environment, so I don't think Crosby's numbers are inflated all that much.

It's hard to believe that Zack Greinke was in high school last year. His debut professional season featured the kind of command that would make Greg Maddux jealous, as he walked just 18 batters against 112 Ks in a 140-inning season that saw him make it all the way to AA. Royals scouts were convinced he was the most polished amateur pitcher available in the 2002 draft, and they look pretty smart right now. A little more dominance in AA might have clinched it for him.

If you like jaw-dropping numbers, then Dallas McPherson is your guy. The Angel farmhand put his offensive game together this year with an explosive season. He followed up a .308/.404/.608 start in Rancho Cucamonga with a similarly impressive .314/.426/.569 in AA Arkansas. Almost half of his 122 hits went for extra bases, which is pretty astounding. He walked 60 times against 104 Ks in 394 at-bats. The negatives? He only played 105 games, and certainly being on the field is generally a prerequisite for winning full-season honors. At 23, he wasn't exactly young for his level of play, and there are questions about his defense at third base.

Jeremy Reed certainly justified the faith the White Sox showed when they selected him with their 2002 second-round choice. The 22-year old OF gained notice this season by walking 41 times against only 17 Ks in only 222 at bats for Winston-Salem, while posting an Olerudian .333/.431/.477. It turns out that he was just warming up, as upon his promotion he pasted Southern League pitching to the tune of .409/.474/.591. Overall he walked nearly twice as much as he struck out (70 to 36). Obviously, the man knows the zone. His power is not quite as impressive as the .591 SLG might indicate, though, as only 28 percent of hits were for extra bases, but he seems to possess more power in his frame than many thought on draft day.

And the winner is: Bobby Crosby.

It was a tough call this year as no one or two guys really set themselves apart. I was tempted to pick Reed, but I ultimately settled on Crosby as his impressive offensive numbers were compiled at a higher level while playing a more demanding position, and playing it pretty well. I also like that there are few holes or questions in Crosby's performance, as he hit for a solid average, his walk rate was very good, and his power output was very strong. If Reed's power totals were a little better, or if he had posted similar numbers in AAA, he probably would have gotten the nod.

While I don't think Crosby is the game's top prospect, I do believe he's a darn good one that can fill in capably for Tejada in Oakland next year, and that he will eventually mature into one of the better shortstops in the game. Regardless of whatever other accolades he wins in future years, I think it's fair to say that he'll treasure this the most.

about the author

Dan Troy was recently sent an Emmy ballot. Let him know they were wondering who voted for "Baseball Tonight" as Best Comedy Series at dt@strikethree.com.