Prospecting for Gold:
The Short Stops Here

Dan Troy

If you're anything like me—and genetic engineers are working hard to ensure that future generations are not—you are sick and tired of hearing about what's wrong with Major League Baseball.

In the face of all reason and evidence, there seems to be no shortage of mainstream scribes, talking heads, and select Blue Ribbon Panels willing to tell us that games are too long (they're not), that small market teams can't compete (they can), that the sport isn't profitable (it is), that the playoffs need to be expanded to include all major-league teams and the top four finalists from Williamsport (they don't), and that the whole thing will wither away if we don't immediately cap player salaries at 105 percent of the federal minimum wage and incorporate between-inning NASCAR events (it won't).

This type of drone-o-matic criticism is not only fact-challenged and tedious; it tends to divert our attention away from what true problems that game does face, and no, I'm not talking about steroids. I'm talking about shortstops that can hit.

Think about it. Time once dictated that fans went to stand in line for a hot dog when the bottom of the order was due to bat. The number-seven hitter isn't too bad, but he's likely to be stranded if he gets on. The ninth guy in the order is expected to either sacrifice or flail helplessly at the ball in the manner of a toddler trying to swat a moth. Half the time, that guy is a pitcher, so we can look the other way in his case. But the number-eight hitter truly holds the key to a concessionaire's fortune.

And tradition holds that as long as the number-eight hitter is a shortstop in the manner of Dick Schofield, Rafael Belliard, or Pat Meares, it's time to put some more encased meat byproducts on the grill, as the hungry fan has no need to worry about missing anything much on the diamond.

But something unholy has happened in recent years. With the emergence of players like A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and Edgar Renteria, the position has taken on a new dimension. Shortstops, apparently, are no longer supposed to look like wiry 13-year-olds with uncommonly strong throwing arms who have skirted past stadium security. They are actually being asked to hit their weight. From the looks of their minor-league performance, it seems likely that Khalil Greene and Bobby Crosby will only add to the hungry fan's agony.

After an absurdly successful senior season at Clemson, the Padres made Khalil Greene the 13th pick of the 2002 draft. Despite his offensive exploits, many teams thought he was a bit of a reach at that slot because he didn't have the body to play shortstop. The Padres disagreed, and by all accounts he's more than held his own defensively as a pro. The Padres say that while he doesn't look the part, he has above-average athleticism, great instincts, and can make the occasional spectacular play in addition to all the routine ones. Overall, they think he'll provide better-than-average defense at a difficult position.

Defense is great, but what will push Greene up the prospect lists this offseason is his bat. Not long after signing in 2002, he was promoted to High-A Lake Elsinore, where he pounded the ball with authority, clubbing nine home runs and slugging well over .500 in 183 at-bats. Believing he was ready for the challenge, the Padres took an aggressive approach with him by placing him at AA Mobile to start the 2003 season. He performed reasonably well there, if not spectacularly. After 229 ABs, he was hitting .275/.327/.406 (AVG/OBP/SLG) when injury led to what was intended as a short-term promotion to AAA Portland. Let's just say he's seen the last of AA.

Only a little over a year out of college, Greene is making waves in the Pacific Coast League. After 261 at-bats, Greene had posted an outstanding .307/.362/.483 line, including 10 HRs. A solid 34 percent of his 80 hits have gone for extra bases. While the PCL is generally a hitter's haven, it should be noted that that the Padres' affiliate in Portland plays in a low-offense environment, relative to the league.

As for warning signs, Greene has not yet shown the same plate discipline he did in college. He's walked 31 times against 90 strikeouts in 490 at bats this season. This suggests that he will probably not initially set the world on fire, as major-league pitchers will make him pay for his aggressiveness. But we should also remember that he's been promoted quickly and that he was a patient hitter in college. The Padres believe he knows the zone very well and will show increased patience in time.

Padre fans will get a look at Greene in September, and he'll have a chance to earn a starting job in 2004. Down the road, I see a quality defensive shortstop who could put up .280/.350/.450 numbers—good offense from the shortstop position—and compete for the All-Star game in the process.

In Bobby Crosby, the A's have a guy who may end up as Greene's American League doppelganger. At 6'3" and over 200 lbs, he's sure not going to remind anyone of Ozzie Guillen. Despite not looking like the prototype shortstop, he handles the position very well defensively, displaying both solid technique and a strong arm from what I've seen of him in Sacramento this year. His ticket to Oakland, though, will be stamped by his bat speed.

Crosby was a first-round pick of the A's out of Long Beach in the 2001 amateur lottery. He was sidelined in 2001 shortly after signing due to a hip injury, but has shown no ill effects since. He began the 2002 season in High-A Modesto and performed well, posting a strong .393 OBP, though with little power. After 280 at bats, he was promoted to AA Midland with reasonably good results. The A's, never an organization to let a college draftee get to comfortable in one spot, started him at AAA Sacramento to begin the 2003 season, where he has blossomed into one of the game's best prospects at his position.

In 432 AAA at-bats, Crosby has posted an outstanding .301/.385/.530 line, which probably makes the Oakland front office feel a little more comfortable with Miguel Tejada's contract status. He has shown improved plate discipline at this level, having walked 56 times against 105 Ks. His best offensive asset, though, is his power, as he's already slammed 19 home runs and 30 doubles in 2003. Impressively, 42 percent of his hits have gone for extra bases, and he is fourth in the PCL in slugging percentage. Doesn't sound the next Gary DiSarcina, does it? Sacramento, like Portland, is a pretty mild offensive environment compared to other PCL cities, so I don't think the league has inflated his numbers much.

With Tejada likely to depart from Oakland this offseason, Crosby would seem to be nearly a lock to earn a starting job next year. I don't think he'll make A's fans forget the 2002 MVP immediately, but I'd expect him to post serviceable numbers at first (say, .265/.325/.400) and eventually mature into a guy that can achieve a better than average OBP and strong SLG numbers while capably manning a premium defensive position.

While Crosby and Greene may mean bad business for stadium concessionaires, I expect most fans of the A's and Padres will be happy to endure a grumbling stomach for a few more wins. Of course, they could just bring a sandwich to the game...

about the author

Dan Troy suggests you try the Network Associates Coliseum nachos. Tell him that darers go first at dt@strikethree.com.